As of this post, at Bodog, UCLA is being shopped at 12-1 to reach the Final 4 and West Virginia is being dealt at 13-1. I will save you the math, but the overlay at these numbers is pretty significant.

Wang's tickets

WVA to win their region 13-1 (risking 5x)

UCLA to win their region 12-1 (risking 5x)

Gonzaga can be had at a good price at Olympic

Gonzaga to win their region 6.85-1 (risking 5x)


If these numbers are out there on Monday afternoon, I'll be very surprised. I have a feeling some very sharp people are going to drop some very large bombs on WVA and UCLA futures.


I've already got some matchups circled on my card, but I'm not ready to share just yet. That West Virginia/Dayton line is going to be hilarious. They're going to be pretty anti-public laying like 10 to a pretty popular Dayton team.


Wang

I just checked the numbers at www.pinbet.com .

They're the best offshore in the world, and offer the best prices on everything. They're offering UCLA at +701, WestVa at +700, and Gonzaga at +600. I probably jumped the gun on the Zags, but this is a pretty strong indicator that Bodog's odds are waaaaay fucked up, here.

Coming from a UCLA fan, uhhh, good luck with that one.

I joined a pool but I know nothing about basket ball and i need to mimic someone's picks. Could I get your picks for the entire bracket either through here or through PM?

that would be sweet.

Dude even chicks who don't know basketball from baseball can fill out a bracket on their own and do reasonably well. They give you seeds for fucks sake!

Adding:

Memphis v. Oklahoma total tournament wins: Memphis-120 (6x)

Gonzaga to win the South Region 8.5-1 (Risking 3x)

West Virginia to win the Midwest Region 20-1 (Risking a ridiculous # of X)


I am not doing any hedging in the first round of the tournament, so if West Virginia loses to Dayton 8.5pt favorites, I am going to be pretty much completely insolvent as a sports-gambler. I am liquid enough to lock in a significant profit after that, I think, but it might be close if West Virginia gets the worst draw (Kansas in round 2, Michigan State in round 3, Louisville in the regional final), and if I underestimated the book's opinions of West Va. The books have been taking a stand with them all year, so I don't think they'll have any problem installing them as short favorites against Kansas or MSU. If I have to hedge in the Round of 32 with a line like "Kansas-135", I am going to be furious, stubborn, and likely broke.

The only team in that region West Va. would be a (real) underdog to is Louisville, and even then I can't imagine the books would deal anything more favorable to my position that something like L'Ville-150. The real price there would be 'Ville-125 West Va. +105, but I have to imagine if they installed #1 overall seed Louisville as just a 1.5 point favorite over a 6-seeded West Virgina team that lost twice to Louisville during the regular season, Louisville would get absolutely POUNDED at that number.

I am hoping the books keep up the WVa love, but I am not optimistic.

this is unacceptable. I need to find some sort of edge.

coesillian,

If you're asking Wang to do your brackets for you cuz you need an edge to make money, I have a great tip that will double your money........take your entry fee, fold it in half, and put it back in your pocket!

Wang,

How did you determine that the overlay on WVA and UCLA to win their region was significant? I don't mind you hitting me with a math bomb. I'd like to learn to do analysis myself. Point me in the right direction....

Suicide watch.

Yah, and they look fucking horrible... 8105692272

Text me in like 3 hours to make sure I am not dead.


Wang

Don't do it!

So did anybody check to see if he's not dead?