Okay, so I've locked in the following long term positions:

Washington Nationals over 71.5 wins -104 (10x)

Angels to lose the AL West +175 (10x)

I think these are both semi-legit plays, especially the first, which I planned on making whatever the number was when it came out...


The following are more "funsies" than anything, and don't recommend tailing me unless you've got cash to burn:

Philadelphia Phillies Under 87.5 +130 (2x)
Colorado Rockies Over 77.5 -105 (4x)
Cubs Under 91.5 +105 (2x)
Dodgers Under 82.5 +150 (2x)


Thoughts?

This isn't completely about the futures bets you just layed out, but I have a question. Does contrarianism work in futures "winning championship" bets too? I mean, they don't need to necessarily give a good price on anything do they? Like while certain less popular teams might be better value than like the Yankees, couldn't they give a poor price on everything (since they aren't constrained mathematically the same way point spreads force them to give value to one side if they want to give a bad price on the other)? Should I ever bother with futures bets like who wins a division, who wins the pennant, who wins the championship?

I like all of these, except the Philly bet, which looks real ugly to me. So of course,e that's probably the best bet.

You are correct. At most shops, when you do the math and add up all the break-even percentages (for example, if a team were +400 to win it all, the bet's break-even %age is 1/5 = 20%), you come up with something like 160%.

I'm never going to make a "Yankees to win the AL EAST" bet, because that's simply too public. The books will never, ever, ever give value on the best teams, and they don't give much value anywhere. When it comes to futures, I just end up handicapping, but I try to use evaluative measure the public-at-large ignores. I've done pretty well. The public/books are catching up with the "outside the box" analysts (baseball: PECOTA; football: football outsiders; college basketball: Ken Pomeroy), but I have found good value from year-to-year making futures bets. I had a heavy Ravens position at 50-1 to win the AFC and 100-1 to win the superbowl which I showed a decent profit on, and that was ripped straight from the guys at Football Outsiders, who showed that the 2007 Ravens were simply incredibly unlucky.

I've done well playing futures, but I'll admit, it's probably mostly luck. Things like team totals, though, can be beaten with a combination of a contrarian approach and good sources. If Nate Silver is high on the Nats, and everyone thinks they suck, then the books are probably expecting the get heavy under action, and I'll take Nate's advice and play the over.

I make a lot of futures bets, but usually it's a "buy low, sell high" type thing. Sometimes that blows up in my face (for example, when I hit Duke at 13-1 earlier this year), but sometimes it works out okay (Wake Forest: 50-1, Memphis 36-1, Mizzou 70-1, Kansas 66-1). I think I can show a profit on that combination of futures. Ken Pom has Memphis as the best team in the country, Mizzou as the 10th best, Kansas as the 12th best, Wake as the 15th best.... I just waited until I saw a good price, used Ken Pom's rankings, and pounced if I thought it would drop in the future. It's not contrarian in the strictest sense (Duke??), but I won't be dropping bombs on teams the public loves.


Wang

I honestly, I would stay the hell away from the Dodgers this year. That team could win 90 or 75 and I don't see any way to figure out which it's going to be.

Wang,

You obviously know a ton about sports betting and how to find value. How did you learn all this? Are there some books I can read that can teach me to find value which I can combine with your contrarian approach, so I can stop bugging you all the time. I'd rather you teach me how to fish, than just give me future bets from time to time.

Jack

I learned by experience and discussing stuff with people who know. Stick around here, post in threads, and I'll answer any questions as they come up. I haven't been posting here much, lately, because I plan on making a big, big "Contrarianism 202" thread where I address some issues I'm running into, but if I don't answer, some of the other guys have the method down pretty pat.


Step 1-
www.pinbet.com

I lean towards whatever looks ugliest and stupidest. I almost always know what sides are going to be public and which are not.

Step 2-
www.wagerline.com

Consensus data. Line moves. Etc. They use line data from Pinny.

Step 3-
www.matchbook.com

It's almost impossible to beat the rake anywhere but here, and their new policy is going to make the market even more liquid.


Step 4-

www.wherethefuckcanifindsomevaliumandorbloodpressuremeds.com



Wang

You're my boy Wang. I'm studying at the school of contrarianism. I found 3 whack ass plays tonight, played all three and won all of them! I know I'm gonna have some pitiful losing periods, and that's why bankroll is important, but it's nice to see 3 picks hit 1st contrarian night......CLeveland St +8 to Wake, Siena +3 to Ohio State, and Arizona +1 to Utah.

Jack

Wang,

I have been doing well applying your contranian approach to sports betting. Baseball started yesterday and I took the same principles, faded the public and went 3-6 in baseball. It was only a -3x day though. I'm not so concerned with results. I feel that sports betting like poker or any other gambling game is "one long game" so any short term results don't mean much.

Please when you have time discuss whether the books offer value in baseball moneylines. It seems as though I will be backing the Nationals, Royals and Pirates everyday this year. Is there value to be found in backing these atrocious teams? The season being so new, there aren't realiable stats to analyze on baseball prospectus or anything. Should I hold off a month or so and let the books and public begin to form their respective opinions?

Basically what is your basic approach towards handicapping baseball?

http://2009bases.blogspot.com/

I am going to track my bases picks here.

Baseball is by far my best sport. I'll try to make periodic "process" posts when I get a chance.

Wang,

Thanks. I went to that site. I made all 5 of your picks earlier this morning (I must've learned something from this thread), but I also had Rockies, Royals and Astros too. I don't have a way to further screen my picks and narrow down anti-public sides. Still a little confused on how to know where the value is......

I passed the Astros because I saw the wrong pitching matchup. Fading the Cubbies and Dempster is always a good idea. I will fade the Cubs 90 times this year, and probably lose 10x doing it...

I passed the Royals because I'm not totally sure what the public's perception of them is, yet. I've heard a lot of "Royals are the new Rays!" chatter, and Gil Meche is pretty awesome, so I figured I'd just keep the card light and stay away. There's no real problem with playing them, despite Farnsworth's utterly predictable antics this afternoon.

Rockies are a legit play, too, with UbaldoUbaldo on the mound, which is why I have them on the leans list. I am really high on the Rox this year, so I'll probably end up on them at some point tonight. I wanted to keep an eye on how the books handled the 'Zona action, specifically so I could see whether they were planning on taking stands with Ubaldo like they did last year.


Here's a tool you might want to start using, before I head to class.

FIP vs. ERA

FIP stands for "Fielding Independent Pitching," and gives you an indication of how good a pitcher is if you remove luck (batting average on balls in play) from the equation. There's a lot of variance in ERA that has nothing to do with a pitcher's performance. Pitchers control K's, BB's, HR's (to some extent), and GB/FB ratio. FIP, while not perfect, is a better indication of a pitcher's true skillset than is ERA. If a pitcher's FIP is 3.00 but his ERA is 4.2, then he's probably undervalued, and fit for backing.

If a pitcher's ERA is 2.96 but his FIP is 3.41, then he's a legit fade-candidate.

Go to www.fangraphs.com and goof around with their stats. There's a lot of value in finding pitchers that are under/over performing


Wang

Wang,

So yesterday I ended up with 17 bets among MLB, NHL and NBA. I went 7-10 and won 0.1x. I guess that's the cool thing about taking the "ugly" side -- you get paid when you win. Most of my action was in the +150 range, so I only need to win 2 out of every 5, or 40% to breakeven.

I feel like having 17 plays in any given day is too many though. Would you agree? Or should I keep pounding away whenever it seems like a good fade opportunity because I believe the books are gambling with an edge; therefore, I gain on their equity?

Put your junk in the box

Wang,

I'm sure you must be doing slightly well right now cuz I'm doing about the same. Have won about 11 units this week. I'm waiting with baited breathe for your Baseball post that you promised, but can you explain a little more on how you interpret GB/FB%. I understand the differential between ERA vs FIP -- gave me a solid reason to fade the Red Sox the other day w/ DiceK on the hill (even though I'm a Sox fan). I was just curious as to how GB/FB% fits into your analysis for a making a baseball play.

By the way, if you're into Boston sports at all feel free to message me. My buddy and I would like to take you to a game and pick your brain about sports betting. We're season ticket holders to Celts and Bruins.

Shit card today in all sports. I got KC +200, MILW +125, Under 10.5 in Det/Tex and Col/Phi.

It makes me wanna throw up when I look at what I'm betting on/or against.

This is sweet. I'll be taking a look at this site from time to time. Assuming you haven't just decided to abandon it after a day.

Wang,

Write something wise.

My record thus far in bases is 43-47 for a plus 11.5 units. My approach is to fade the public side based on a wagerline consensus and VI consensus. They both need to align. From there, I take a look at the starting pitchers and compare ERA to FIP. If the FIP indicates the pitcher may be overvalued or undervalued in accordance to my fade, the bet is on. If it's neutral, it's on. However, if the pitching stats contradict my fade, it's off.

I'm looking for ways to further screen the basic contrarian approach to fade the public side. Any thoughts about how to go deeper than a simple public fade?

Banner17

I'm looking to make 2 bets, one on the Rays winning the AL East and another on the Rays making the playoffs. What sort of odds do y'all think I should be looking for?