1/2 NL BM game. I was in late position with about 175 and dealt 77. Mid-position raises to 10. I call, both the small and big blinds call. Flop comes down 7 9 10 (rainbow). The small blind bets 35 right out. The big blind raises to 80. original raiser folds to me.

I know this is probably insta-push 90something percent of the time....but consider the following...I determined big blind was the best player at the table, a relatively tight-agressive player who I hadn't yet seen reraise without the nuts (at least in showdown situation). He was defending a very high percentage of his BB's pre-flop leaving him a very wide range pre-flop (being able to include 6 8 or 8 J in addition to 99 1010), and I don't think we would have reraise pre flop if he had 99 or 1010 so they are included. After much thought I fold and so does the SB. The BB shows 6 8.

I know this isn't a by the book decision, as I'd still have been drawing to 30% even if I'd pushed...but I just knew my opponent at best had me beat, and at worst had me dominated. In this situation, albeit extremely rare, you gotta say that you have to go with your read over the math? granted the math wouldn't have justified a call putting him on a straight or better, but that would obviously be assigning a ridiculously small range. But I was just certain he was in that range on his particular hand.

Thoughts?

I think with your analysis your play was fine. You took a lot into consideration regarding reads on that players style and put him on a range. You had 3 scenarios: he had a straight and you were drawing to win, he had a better flopped set and you are virtually dead, or you made a misread and were way ahead. You were in bad shape in 2 out of 3 and trusted your instincts. I say nice play. But then again, what do I really know..hehe. I will be curious to see other replies.

nice read. tough to lay down a set. After the hand did you uy the SB a drink for saving you your stack? if SB checked then BB bet would have re-raised?

I shoulda. Oh lord......if SB wasn't in or checked and BB was initial bettor, I would have had my chips in that pot in a heartbeat. The crux of the read was BB's raise with the original raiser and late position behind him. I know he wasn't making this move out of position with some pair open end draw.

I've said this was either one of my best laydowns or a ridiculously stupid move on my part (both specific to cash game of course), because so much of this play diverted from the math and into the read portion of the game. I'm willing to accept responses of both, because even I personally have looked at it from both ends of the spectrum!

Why can't we include hands like T7, 97, T9 and JJ in his flop raising range?

KidPoker

I thought kidpoke would put villian on 6 8 and still call.

You undoubtedly could include these hands, and typically they DEFINITELY should be included....but the above noted variables in my observations of BB did not have him raising out of position with a pot sized opening bet with less than a set here. Like i say, the bulk of it was based on table observation. I've had some people, outside of here, say that my push should have been immediate regardless of any supposed read, etc, based on the +EV of my hand. And I don't necessarily disagree with them. My stance was that once in a great, great while it may be possible to dismiss the #'s and solely play the player, even in a flopped set situation like this.

I think this is a thinly-veiled brag post about a hero fold.

Seriously, what is your question? And for the love of God, if you want strat advice: DO NOT POST RESULTS!

There is only one reason that you included the results, and I have already stated it in the first line of my reply.

Yep.

"I have a read that BB will only raise the flop with a set or better, so I folded bottom set when he raised."

It's a statement, not a question.

OP is a better player than me cause I can't read exact hands and I'm not folding this like ever.

edit

It's 1/2, and you don't even have 100 Bbs; it's a shove.

Are there times to fold bottom set? Yes, but you need deeper stacks to do so. Or you should have them, for that matter. You can fold whatever you want whenever you'd like.

I'm going to respond to this reply. You seemed to dislike my tone, so I will keep this post neutral.

If you want to generate some valid discussion then please don't include results. You should post the hand, together with your reads, stack sizes, etc and then ask what should the hero do on the flop. It's ok to say that you want to fold and back it up with your reasoning. The moment you include results -whatever they might be- they skew the perspectives of the replies and prevent (or at least hamper) genuine responses.

If your intention was to post a brag thread (and it's ok to post brag threads), then it belongs in the General Poker forum (because there is no discussion of strategy intended). The strategy forum is for discussing situations where you need advice and are not sure what the best action is at a given point. It's important to note that when you start a thread about a hand, it falls into one of 3 categories:

1) Bad beat thread - Bad Beat Forum (belongs in bad beat forum and *will* be flamed on its way down)
2) Brag thread- General Poker Forum (you will get a mix of flames and congratulations with the percentage of each varying widely depending on the specific hand, who posted it, the tone of the OP, etc)
3) Strategy discussions Strategy Forums (*NEVER* include results until the hand has been discussed and the situation has been resolved)

Unfortunately, sometimes people try to cross-post in two categories, and this invariably fails. A Bad beat/brag hero call thread invariably is received as a bad beat only thread. Similarly any strategy thread which includes a brag or bad beat story loses all its strategy discussion.

Don't get down if your thread receives unexpected flames. Read the forum rules and then read other strat threads. You will see that in those threads the hand is described and the reads are given, but the results are withheld. After the discussion winds down, the OP generally reveals the results. It's also instructive to read some bad beat threads and/or brag threads to see the general flow of the responses.

Finally, don't worry about it if your first few posts/threads get some unexpected responses and flames. Pretty much everyone (myself included) had some of their threads flamed and I can guarantee that everyone with > 100 posts on FCP have been flamed at least once or twice for something they have posted.

FWIW, thx for the in depth response. It was helpful.

I guess my thought process was that my individual hand result wasn't the basis for my question, just a template of IF it would be okay to ever fold a set here. I knew without posting the result in this instance, not one person would ever agree with the fold. Therefore the result was necessary to validate the read in this situation. Not to pat my own back, but to say even knowing the guy had the straight, would the fold be acceptable ever.

Anyways though, thanks for the detailed response and have a good one.

True that. That's the crux of the shove responses I've gotten in real life. And I totally agree with it.

Which is why I posted this situation, because I totally agree with this response to a tee, but I think I agree with my very isolated read.

We can close this thread though. I think I've got it down. Under 100 BBs my situation would be an insta-push. While any situation is open to a read depending on the knowledge provided at the table, the situation would rare to drop the flopped set and would take a unique set of circumstances.

I guess, from the analytical side, I was thinking of other things....like even with a "sure read", how could someone fold a made set after calling a raise to 5 BB for the sole purpose of set mining, and then hitting it. That's only gonna happen 1 of 8.5 times, so how can you fold when you get there?

Good stuff though! Have a good one all.

There are times where this fold is correct. If your read is right it's a very good fold.

The problem is, when you say:

"I was just certain he was in that [set or better] range"
"my observations of BB did not have him raising out of position with a pot sized opening bet with less than a set here"

That really makes any discussion null. You've given the answer in your opening post.


Also, with regards to posting results - look at the first two responses you got:

"I think with your analysis your play was fine"
"nice read"

If you'd posted that he had T9, would they have said anything close to that? Or would they have said "horrible fold"? If you don't give results you guarantee unbiased responses.




"you have to go with your read over the math? granted the math wouldn't have justified a call putting him on a straight or better, but that would obviously be assigning a ridiculously small range."

If your read is different to 'the math', either your read is wrong, or you're not doing the math right. If your reads and equities are correct, the math is always correct.

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but it seems like you're thinking of 'math' as basic, robotic, ABC play. The idea that 'math' says you don't fold sets on the flop, or you don't give free cards, or whatever.

The lack of scoring is going to stop my team from making the playoffs this year.

Well that's what I was thinking about when you asked. Didn't need to think about your hand since you had such a solid read on the situation.