A hand from the 4.40 barrage tonight.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00+$0.40 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t15748)
CO (t3500)
Button (t6469)
Hero (SB) (t10598)
BB (t4855)
UTG (t4470)
UTG+1 (t8138)
MP1 (t12237)

Hero's M: 18.43

Preflop: Hero is SB with K , Q
UTG calls t250, UTG+1 raises to t500, MP1 calls t500, MP2 calls t500, 2 folds, Hero calls t375, 1 fold, UTG calls t250

Flop: (t2950) 5 , J , 9 (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets t3750, 3 folds, Hero ?

The minraise-with-lots-of-callers pattern has been quite typical at this table. I was playing this barrage in the background while grinding SNGs, so no particular reads on villain other than that he's loose.

We can have anywhere between 0 and 17 outs... How many should we count? Enough to cross our fingers, close our eyes and call, or is it an easy fold?

(Edit: note that villain is basically all in here. For some reason, perhaps to chat - though he didn't - or to tip the waitress, he has left himself a few chips.)

Meh, I'd probably gamble here.

So bizarre.

How do you interpret his pattern? With so many still to act behind him, pushing into the field like that if he's not holding the As would be highly risky. He's gotta be holding the As. I don't know, I'm at a loss.

It's very possible he has a J or even 2 pair here. And he doesn't want anyone to draw out, so he shoves his top pair.

in my experience this big flop overbet tends to be top pair that he's REALLY trying to protect. which, whatever, your hand does ok against a naked J. problem is, there's a good chance his hand counterfeits a bunch of your outs. he's never folding if you shove...has to be a -ev spot. you have plenty of chips to work with...seems a pretty ez fold.

oh and calling is unspeakably terribad obv because you have to fold the turn u/i and oops there's 40% of your stack without getting to showdown.

I misread the hand completely before I thought there was someone left to act. I'd shove but not snappingly. Yeah I said snappingly.

I was wondering about that, but pushing into 4 players on a flushed flop when he doesn't have a spade himself?

From the bet it looks like Villain is all in. Does that make a difference? That's the reason why I said I would probably call. Everyone else folded as well, I think. If someone else had called and if UTG wasn't all in then I can probably fold, but looking at his stack and his bet it looks like UTG is all in.

whoops, missed that utg was that short. still don't think it's a +ev call.

I'd like to think I'd lay this down, but...

As it stands, with the guy betting almost his entire stack, I'm inclined to put him all in and see what happens...

loooooool
Best answer so far. hahaha

Can someone stove this..I would like to see our equity in the hand and I'm not on my computer which has stove...

We can at least narrow down the outs.

If he's on a J with no spade, Hero has 15 good outs.

If he's on a J with a spade, Hero has 14 good outs.

If has the As, Hero's outs drop considerably.

That doesn't help a whole lot, does it?

I know, I sound kind of retarded there...

I'm all in too bc I just don't think he's got the spades.

The problem I have here is that since Hero doesn't have a made hand, he'd be calling off almost 1/2 his stack when the best case scenario is that he's a slight fav with 15 live outs. Bottom line is that he's not going to be well ahead of anything here.

Villain has a hand he really wants to protect, something like AJ, maybe a set. At worst we're against AsJx in which case we be ****ed (25%), however you don't think he'd be too scared with AsJx to bet this much.

Against a set we have about 36%, 2 pair, about 46%, against a random QJ we are a 54% fav, against a random KJ we are 52% favourite, against AJ no As (AcJc,AdJd,AhJh,AcJd,AcJh,AdJc,AdJh,AhJc,AhJd) we are 60% favourite.

Considering all this and the fact we are closing the action, I call/get it in.

loooooooool
This is how I read it
I'm like the dyslexic of poker math. sigh.

This is probably a leak in my game but i would insta fold. i feel i can find a better spot than this one. My question is if we decide to continue with this hand do we shove. calling got to be the wordt option right?

lol, noob..




call is the same as shove, he has about 200 chips left after those which he just bet (I think).

If he had us covered this would be a tougher decision, as it is though, I think we have a decent enough edge here to gamble.

Thanks for the responses so far! I'll wait a little more and then post results for those interested.

Yes, villain is basically all in - I should have stated that in the OP since it may not be immediately obvious from the numbers. I'll edit the post.

You're right, he doesn't have spades.

Aces full, Mike.

But seriously, I call this for an important reason already stated. I think we should only be worried about a set or a small flush here. If villain had the nut flush or AsJx, why would he bet so much like this? Why wouldnt he check hoping somebody stabs at it. I call expecting/hoping to see KJ/QJ.

edit-then we obv have to fold the turn if we dont get there. No way he fires the last 200 without the nuts, imo.