Are we ahead of his range enough to warrant a call? He has shoved the button a few times, as he should be doing. This is a 45man sng

Full Tilt Poker Game #10274893314: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (77804466), Table 4 - 150/300 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:31:48 ET - 2009/01/27
Seat 1: Yroc_T (5,985)
Seat 3: zarathustrated (3,855)
Seat 4: therevgs (6,000)
Seat 6: JKoperniak (1,550)
Seat 7: direwolf914 (5,795)
Seat 9: GalloFX (5,970)
direwolf914 posts the small blind of 150
GalloFX posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GalloFX [3d Qd]
Yroc_T folds
zarathustrated folds
therevgs folds
JKoperniak raises to 1,550, and is all in
direwolf914 folds
GalloFX ?????

I'm not happily doing it, but with 8:5 odds and the possibilty that villain is pushing just about anything (which would make this nearly a coinflip), yeah, I think we have to call.

Edit: wait, I said that assuming this was the FT, but given the blinds and chipstacks, it probably isn't? How many left?

I don't think so. I think you're behind wayyyy too often here to make it profitable. If the blinds were maybe 1 level higher, I think it's a lot closer.

I ran the numbers in SNG Power tools and it's a +$ev play by $.01 if you have the shover on a range of top 50%. If you narrow that down to a semi decent shoving range like top 30% (a little more realistic and what I'd like to give credit for), it's -$ev. Top 30% would be 44+,A3o+,A2s+,K8o+,K5s+,Q9o+,Q8s+,J9s+

quick edit - LOL, i assumed FT too . In the case that it's not the final table, I would def fold.

Bubble before Final Table, but only top 6 pay.


I put him at shoving at least 50%

If he's shoving the button every time, I probably call.

I think it's so marginally close that I pass on the spot. Like I said, if it were 200/400, we're getting a better price.

Ok, why would this matter if it were the final table? Oh and as far as the final tables of these 45man average chipstack is usually around 10-12bbs.

Oh, I wasn't implying that that would change my answer - I was just wondering.

If you are further away from the money, the fact that it's probably a +cEV play weighs heavier compared to ICM considerations, so if anything, I would be more inclined towards a call with two tables left, not less.

I don't think we are getting quite the right odds, so that being said odds are we will win! Seriously though, I fold but it's close.

If you are calculating ICM, you'd calculate it based on all the chips in play. Assuming there is another 38000 or so chips in play on the other table, it would make it a less $ev play to make the call, seeing as it represents a smaller percentage of the overall pool of chips remaining. I think that makes sense

Probably not.

Maybe a better way to put it his stack is really only worth $2 using ICM assuming there is about 38k in chip on the other table. If I were to assume that it was the FT, his stack would be worth $5.

I'm a feel player dammit!! lol
It sort of does and it sort of doesn't make sense.

But because average stacks are so small at final tables I think that 1500 extra chips does help out.

You have a Q and a 2 though

FYP

But they're sooooooooooted!!

Well, seems like no more discussion. I called. Like I mentioned before, he had already shoved the button a few times and possibly 1 other time in the orbit. He should be shoving wide enough OTB to be able to chip up. I figured that there was a very good chance I was ahead of anything he was shoving. He shoved 10/9o. I hit a Q, gg him.

The first time he shoved I gave him credit for a hand, which I usually do. 2nd time, I had like 83o. The third time he folded, but I knew he wanted to shove. The fourth time, well like I said, I figured I could be very well ahead of his shoving range.

I don't like a call with Q3sooted...Q9/QT+ in this spot afaic

IDK, for me it's like calling with A-rag, I'm usually ahead with A-rag in a situation like this where the button could be shoving wide. I didn't really care about my kicker if I thought I was ahead of what he could be shoving here. I just happened to be right, but I don't think it matters if I was right or wrong. I think this is one of those situations where we have to seriously think about what range someone could be shoving here and if we could warrant a call enough that we could be ahead and for it to be a profitable call.

If I'm the button, I would be shoving a very wide range of hands here and I think sometimes we have to put ourselves in villain's shoes and try figure out what we could be shoving if we were OTB.

on a meta-level.. if you make that call in front of god and everyone, no one at that table is messing with your big blind for quite some time.