Villain's line looked superweak here, and I've seen him checkraise and then fold to a shove a few hands earlier. Do we like? Dislike? Hate and I should quit poker?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (MP3) (t5450)
CO (t4782)
Button (t2900)
SB (t8600)
BB (t2460)
UTG (t5180)
UTG+1 (t6595)
MP1 (t11245)
MP2 (t13382)

Hero's M: 36.33

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, 8
3 folds, MP2 raises to t200, Hero calls t200, 3 folds, BB calls t100

Flop: (t650) 4, K, J (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t650) 5 (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets t420, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t1200, Hero calls t780

River: (t3050) 9 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets t3050,

Don't you think you could accomplish the same thing w/ 2300? Even doing a better job of showing strength actually as your bet doesn't look like it wants a call.

Not a fan.

I thought of lots of things to write, but basically I don't like it at all.

I think you need to bet less (2k) or just shove, it's not like you have left yourself many chips as it is.

I'd say (player dependant of course) that he could have

-67hh or something similar - folding
-QThh?/QTo - obv not folding
-KJ or 55/JJ/44 - not folding
-KQ/AK - possibly folding.
-complete air?! - folding

So weight each of those based on reads.
I highly doubt most players check flop and check/raise the turn with KQ/AK here.
67hh makes a decent amount of sense if you think he'll check/raise when he picks up the big draw.
If you think he's trappy, then he might check QT here, but most players will always bet that.
KJ and a set baically play the same for him here - he may check/intending to call, thinking you may have QT, but it's an odd line given the turn C/R.

confusing hand, I probably just c/f turn, gallo probably loves your play here though.

edit: 5 hours later now I'm slightly less tired - essentially, I think this is a very read/player dependant bluff.

Edit: thought Hero minraised pf, apologies...

Too many hands that beat us that call this...not making this play without very solid read.

I probably bet a little smaller on the river ~1500-1800 possibly 2K, folding to any play back at us. If we get called on the river it makes our image seem a little loose, which will help us when we go into push-bot mode by getting called a little lighter.

This is an interesting side issue. You prefer to get called when you're in pushbot mode? I don't--I'd rather take down the blinds and antes without a fight (unless I'm shoving with something really strong, but that's usually not the case).

As to the original question, I don't like the line at all (but then, I've become a big fan of smallball, and this is essentially the polar opposite). I would take the free card on the turn and then check behind on the river as well, leaving my total investment in the hand t200.

ETA: As played on the turn, a river check still might win you the pot if villain has a lower flush draw--and of course, in that case you'd win just as much by checking as you would by betting. If villain has something other than just a flush draw, the river bluff risks too many chips for the reward (while I still wouldn't do it myself, a bet of about 2000 at least has a better risk/reward ratio).

given his line here i can't really put him on much on the turn, it seems like he's just trying to resteal on you. Does anyone think going all in on the turn is a viable option? It looks stronger and you do have the nut flush draw plus your ace is most likely good if you hit it.

Yeah, I like that a lot better than the river bluff.

I'm not a fan of your line in this hand. It would look just as weak as the villain's line would look to you -- if not more so.

Some issues with the hand:

BET-SIZING:
1) On the turn, you bet 2/3 pot, then on the river, you bet *POT*, which sets off bluff alarm bells for anyone who pays attention to bet-sizing tells.
2) On the river, you are betting 3050 into 3050, leaving yourself with ~1000 behind. Betting 3/4s of your stack to bet pot here is another alarm bell. A normal value bet here would be ~1/3 to 1/2 pot, and if you chose to bet more, the "standard" larger bet would just be all in. It *REALLY* makes your bet look like you are trying to get your opponent to fold.

Generally, the big hands will bet larger (relative to the pot size) on earlier streets on drawy boards to protect their hands. On the river, a big hand is either likely to go for a value (1/3-pot to 1/2-pot size) bet or (with your stack being 4/3-pot) would just push all in to maximize when called. Obviously, bet-sizing tells can be manipulated and it is a good idea to pay attention to your opponents bet-sizing on their big hands, moderate hands, and bluffs to classify their general tendencies. Nevertheless, your line looks like a standard "busted draw" line.



YOUR FLOP CHECK/TURN PLAY:
You choose to check behind on the flop, but suddenly try to take control on the turn with a bet. What hands would play like that?
1) Monster hands (sets and 2 pair) on the flop: If you have a monster hand on the flop and you are slow-playing, then you would be getting it all in once check-raised on the turn.
2) One-pair hands: If you had a one-pair hand and checked behind on the flop for pot control, then you would also be checking behind on the river. You also would likely be folding most under pairs and weak kings to the turn check-raise anyway.
3) Stone-cold bluffs: You would most likely be folding to his check-raise on the turn
4) Draws: Your flop and turn play is consistent with a draw. The draws on the turn are flush draws, and straight draws with [A2], [A3], [23], [26], [36], [67], [68], [78], [9T], [9Q], [TQ], ... Out of all of these hands, you would have folded most of them PF and would have folded the naked GSSD on the turn check-raise (obviously, you might have a combo FD+GSSD here). After the turn action, you would have folded out all draws except perhaps for the OESDs, combo draws and flush draws. Out of all of these draws, only one connects with the river (QT).

Basically, you are repping exactly one hand (QT) with your river bet, and your bet range also includes a large variety of busted draws. If you *did* have [QT], you are most likely to bet the flop in position (you have an OESD and it is checked to you, so it is a reasonable spot for a semi-bluff) *OR*, it you took the free card on the flop, you would likely take it again on the turn (I'm not saying that QT *never* plays it like you did on the flop or turn, but that it is one of the less likely ways to play QT here). Again, if QT makes it to the river, you will likely either go for a small value bet (~1/2 pot-ish) or (with your stack) just push all in and hope the villain has a strong hand and/or puts you on a busted draw.

I kind of wish you hid your cards in your first post, because I would have put you on either [A x ] or [6 7] (i.e. one of the hands that had air on the flop, but picked up a draw on the turn)

I don't like it.

Imo, the fact you didn't bet the flop says you have no K or J. The second heart comes and you get check raised and you smooth call, where you probably should have shoved. Then you cram in the rest of your chips in a typical busted flush draw move.

No. Almost any K or J will call you and plenty of people will put you on A high and call with a middle pp.

My reasoning for not shoving the flop instead of betting the river:

I have a nut flush draw, and if I shove he's only calling with hands that have me beat. By flatting, I have position on him on the river. I assumed he was betting river with his turn checkraise, so I can get away from my hand if I miss and I can get more value of I hit.

My reason for potting the river:
I wanted to act like I was commiting myself to the pot with my hand, so he might fold a larger portion of his range that has me beat (middle pp's, possibly hands with a J in them). I think by betting less I give him the idea that I can still fold if he shoves, and he might shove with a larger part of his range if he senses weakness, and then I'll have to fold.

I think overall, it's a mistake to not bet this river because I can't imagine villain playing a strong made hand this way. While I see merits in betting slightly less, I still think I have to bet enough to show that I'm committed to the pot. Betting <2000 is less than half my stack and could be taken for weakness, especially if villain is thinking I am weak.

Let me know if my thinking is terrible.. Some good responses so far.

There's a very interesting psychological aspect here. If villain thinks you are weak, he will see the small bet as a confirmation of your weakness. If villain thinks you are strong, on the other hand, he will see the bet as an attempt to extract value, and see his opinion confirmed as well.

On the other hand, the big bet in both cases might contradict what he thinks. If he thinks you are weak, the large bet might have him think "Hmm... but what if he really isn't? Do I want to risk this many chips where I may be trapped?" If he thinks you are strong, he will think "Hmm... but isn't he trying to chase me away here?"

So, I guess part of it comes down to gauging what villain thinks of you... If you think he thinks you are strong, I would be more inclined towards the small bet. I you think he thinks you are weak, I would be more inclined towards the large one. (If betting is correct at all in that case.)

I think a question no one has asked is:

Why are we putting ourselves in an All In situation this early in a tourney (Deepstack? Or is this a Rebuy in the 1st hour?) ON A BLUFF? WHYYYYYY??????

I think he might also call with a flush draw (bad play, but I've seen it before). Certainly QhTh would not fold (and would get there on the river as it turns out, but that's being results-based) Besides, at that point (on the turn), you're not "beat" yet. If villain has a pair, you could still catch an A or a heart on the river after all the money gets in and win a huge pot. Once the river comes, the "semi" is gone from semi-bluff, and the only way you can win is if villain folds.

But I'm only saying I like the turn shove better than the river PSB. Better than either of them IMO is to keep the pot small and not bet either the turn or the river (calling a small bet on the turn when you pick up the nut flush draw).

ETA: Mercury's question is a good one (though it's not quite an all-in situation). Way too longball for my taste.

Chip EV is my only concern here. If I feel confident villain is weakish here, why should I pass up (what I think) is a +cEv situation? It doesnt matter at what stage in the tournament I'm in, at least in this case.