Mr. Sparco
Friday, January 23rd, 2009, 4:11 PM
Some numbers (because I like numbers

):
There's 1795 in the pot.
We need to put in 1265 to call.
The main pot is 990.
The side pot is 2070.
Let's put CO on a top 15% hand - 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs+, ATo+, KTo+, QJo. (I guess that's still on the tight side?)
Then using pokerstove, we have a 48.6% equity in the side pot, meaning about $1006.
Moreover, let's put UTG on a top 50% hand. (Though he probably should shove ATC here.)
Then we have a 35.7% equity in the main pot, meaning about $353
So, in total, we get back an EV of $1359 on our $1265 call, which should be plenty to call here.
If you change the numbers to a top 10% hand for CO and ATC for UTG, you get a roughly even money situation. That range for UTG is really way too tight though. Since we're basically playing for chip EV here (losing the pot will only cost about 1/3 of our stack, so doesn't hurt our chances of getting in the money too much) I think it's a clear call.