My notes on villain are "competent / solid / pos aware," so he's capable of playing other than ABC. He probably has PT so he knows how I'm playing, and he'll know to respect my river raises

$25 nl 6-max I have $30 villain covers

Hero is dealt [ 3 3 ]

Villain raises to 0.85
2 folds
Hero calls
2 folds

Flop [ 6 6 J ]
($2.05)

Villain checks
Hero checks

Turn [ 6 6 J ] [ 3 ]
($2.05)

Villain bets $2.05
Hero calls $2.05

River [ 6 6 J ] [ 3 ] [ 8 ]
($6.15)

Villain bets $6.15
Hero?

Obviously I am raising. His range is, IMO, JJ/66/88/QQ+/AJ. Now the question is, how do I get him to pay me off with his overpairs. A legitimate raise is essentially a shove, which requires him to call ~$15 more, and I don't think he'll do that with an overpair. You have to think about, if he does have an overpair, why he checked the flop; seems like for pot control. If he's aware, then, of pot control, then he's probably not the type of player who'll call off here with queens or kings.

But a minraise may be just the right amount; now he's getting the "price" to call, so he may feel compelled to do it; and that way I take another $6.15 off him. Is this one of those times when a minraise would work?

A turn raise, IMO, is out of the question, as it advertises extreme strength; the way to get most of villain's stack here, I think, is through pot commitment

I really think you should be betting the flop here. Don't let him have a free card to catch his 9 outer.

I don't mind the flat call on the turn, but I'm tempted to say raise to represent a flush draw. I could be convinced either way.

Shove the river. A smaller raise could easily be seen as stronger if he thinks you are competent.

Hmm...I think I tend to agree with the minraise. Hard for a competent player to stack off with a lone pair here.

How often would we:

1) Check back trips on the flop?
2) Subsequently flat call the turn with trips?

I would posit that our river range (pre-shove) includes a lot of draws, some weakish one pair hands, and then very occasionally a big hand.

hmmm thats an interesting hand you've got there! if i really wanted to get paid by an over pair or AJ i'd most likely raise to $14-$16,it really looks like jacks full to me though so i'd probably just call and then be sick when he flips over AA and cry because i didn't get enough money from the hand.*sigh* he had jacks full or quads didn't he?

I'd bet flop.

A turn raise is not out of the question. U dont have to have a hand to raise him on the turn.

I shove river every time. He's not folding an over pair. IMO

I'd bet flop.

A turn raise is not out of the question. U dont have to have a hand to raise him on the turn.

I shove river every time. He's not folding an over pair. IMO

Shove, if he turns over AA 66 well..that sucks, but I still shove river every time.

Bet flop, raise turn, raise river to 18 to 19. I really dislike how you played this hand overall.

What are your thoughts on the difference between $18/19 and a shove of ~$26?

What about the baluga theorem. Everyone says, "a turn raise from a solid player means a good hand," and you want me to raise the turn against an observant villain? Dude's not a donk. I represent trips or better by doing that. Note my image. My stats are like 20/17/1.6. Simo even said above that my line isn't representing a very strong hand. Why do I want to represent one by raising the turn and frightening villain? Snake, I don't need a strong hand to raise the turn, but I need one to both raise the turn and fire the river. My goal's to take villain's stack. So I still maintain that the best way to do that is to look weak and let villain hang himself / get "pot committed."

Simo, I also considered raising on the turn to represent a flush draw, but as a rule I wouldn't play AsXs (or any draw) hard on a paired board.

Flop bet is probably best. I checked behind as his UTG range was tight, and he either had (IMO) a bigger pocket pair, which he's never folding, or AK/suited broadway.

Anyway, I shoved and villain folded, showing QQ. What sucks is that I knew he had an overpair (or the obv JJ) and that he wouldn't pay me off if I shoved. But then I said, NEVER MINRAISE, so I didn't.

Agree that you needed to take control on the flop, then when your card hit on the turn, you could continue betting and you wouldn't be worrying about things like - "if I Baluga him, he's totally the type to recognize that, and get scared off".

I think you mostly just ran into a competent villian there is all. You won't get full value out of every hand. Let's for a second take off the fact that you may not have the best hand. At a certain point you have to just figure you do and go with it.

You need to think about the play in terms of that situation coming up - say 10 times. How much more value you would get out of minraising the river every time and getting called everytime (6.15 * 10 = $61.50). Let's say you raise it twice his original raise and get called 60% of the time ( 12.30 * 6 = $73.80). Three times his range gets called 40% of the time is all. (18.45 * 4 = $73.80 again). Shoving only gets called by 3 in 10 villians = (20.95 * 3 = $62.85)

So now you have to decide how correct those percentages(I sure make no warranties on them, LOL)....At 25NL I suspect that more then 3 in 10 villians call the shove for example.

Even so I think I would have raised it up twice his bet size (up to $18.45 - leaving him $12.30 to call). He is getting 2.5-1 on a call ($12.30 into a pot of now $30.75) and will likely pay you off.

Even knowing the Baluga theorem, a lot of people don't follow it. Your line looks really funky raising turn and might confuse villain into calling. You need to build a pot. He could have trips himself or something that he was "slowplaying" and will stack off with.

Why do we think villain didn't lead the flop? Did he think you'd call down with a piece on the turn?

Bet the flop and the rest of the hand is totally on autopilot.
I think on the river, this might be a minraise.
If I have seen villain involved in a couple "all-ins," then this is a shove.

trystero, I understand what ur saying but I have a different opinion about it. Flop goes check check, and he fires a pot bet on the turn when the 3 hits. So, if you didnt have a hand, it wouldnt be a bad idea to raise him here since he should be c-betting a lot on that board + b/c the turn normally dont help him. If he's aware of that ur capable of doing this move it's even better to do it now when you do have a hand. I sure dont see him fold QQ if u raise to $6 on the turn. If he comes over the top thats great, and if he just calls you, u have an excellent position. The pot is now around $14. He will bet here pretty often when the river bricks and you can shove into this larger pot and he'll have to call you praying to god that ur either bluffing with that potential flush draw or holding AJ. If he checks u can fire big and he'll look u up very often. And another thing: did he fold and show QQ? Can you do that on some sites nowdays?

yeah at AP you can show upon folding now

Bet the flop, for sure. However, even though villain folded on the shove, I still think it's the right move. Still, if you played this a little differently earlier, you could have gotten paid off without worrying about the villain's river decision as much.

You really played this hand terribly. I hope you raise and he has 66.

Thanks for the useless input. You live up to your namesake.

No reason to get defensive. You bet the flop and get control of the hand.

Good Luck

LOL

It always makes me curious when someone's first post is drilled down deep in the NL strat forum and consists of an LOL response to a post that's already a week old. I mean .... WTF.


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