jmbreslin
Wednesday, January 21st, 2009, 12:16 PM
QUOTE (outsider13 @ Wednesday, January 21st, 2009, 10:38 AM)

It's really not a matter of your stack size as much of an issue of pot odds that you are getting. If you put your opponent on a range (let's for arguments sake put him on the top 50%), you would stand to win this hand 1/3 times. So you're a 2-1 dog getting over 3-1 in return. I think the only case I would fold this is if I was the short stack and it was the bubble, even then I'm usually calling if I can put the villain on a wide range because it's such a +ev play.
But chip ev doesn't necessarily equal $ ev. Some decisions may be +ev in terms of chips but are more marginal in terms of your overall tournament equity. Making a call on the bubble based purely on pot odds when a loss would cripple/bust you is likely one of those situations. For example, say you're on the bubble of a STT...
Villain 1: 7000
Villain 2: 3500
Hero (BB): 1300
Villain 3 (SB): 700
Blinds are 100/200/25 and it's folded to SB, who pushes in his 700. The pot is 1100 and it's 500 more to you, for better than 2-1 pot odds. You have the pot odds to call with ATC here but should you? Call and win the bubble breaks, but you're still in 3rd place. Call and lose, you're down to 800, villain 3 increases to 1100, and now you're in serious risk of bubbling. Not enough upside to justify the risk.