I'm wondering if anyone here would have knowledge on sports betting as a career?

I have a buddy who is a sports genius, and he is thinking of investing more time and money into betting. Hes great with numbers and sports, but he doesnt have the funds to jump into it.
What sort of money would he need to do it properly?

anyone have any idea on a BR strategy for this

thanks

There is few things to consider first. If i were to do sports betting for a living i would need enough for roll and and living expenses just like poker. I personally would also only put 1% of my roll in action per bet. 2% at most but that could cost you a decent amount when you hit a bad run. I would say a min for me would be about 500 per bet. So i would need about a 50k bankroll to start. You figure if your good you will hit around 55-58% long term, over a large sample size. You should be able to live off that but it depends on your lifestyle. Just my .02.

I would first want to know my winning percentage of a large sample size, say 500 bets made. If you're buddy is like 270-230 then, I would consider doing it for my main source of income if and if a) I had a large enough bankroll that would allow me to make bets large enough to get the monthly income that I would want to live, and he had at least 6 months living expenses in the bank, betting bankroll aside.

A 40% yearly ROI is good. (That would be 20K profit on a 50K bankroll, without any compounding, or adjustments to unit-size.)

The swings can be terrible. (I am reasonably certain I have an edge, and I am stuck for the calendar year.)

Knowing a lot about sports and being able to recognize profitable sports-betting opportunities are not the same thing, and are often mutually exclusive. Post his NBA and NCAA leans for the next couple days, and I'll let you know if his approach is solid, or if he's a random sports-fanatic-clown the books make a living off of, year after year.

I have no idea but just noticed your profile pic

Old man Clemens Hates shit!

He's gona SHIT, when he realises it's SHIT!

Just forewarning, this is out of curiosity, not because I don't believe you or think you are bad at sports betting. Just being inquisitive.

You say you are reasonably certain you have an edge, but are stuck for this year. What mathematical basis do you have for thinking you have an edge? I know I've asked you about how you bet sports and kind of understand your logic/system, but how do you quantify your edge? What would you consider a significant sample size to know if you do have an edge? For example, in poker you have all of these EV calculators and all of the stats to define a range and calculate your equity and compare that to the results, but how do you do that with sports betting? How do you know you're just not bad at sports betting or how do you know you are just running statisticly bad? Is there any merit to making a big bet on a line that's a lock but you are not getting a very good price? This makes me want to try sports betting again. I wish you were on AIM more so I could bother you with these questions more often, but then again, that might be why you're not on AIM...

Napa-

It is possible that I'm a losing player. Let me be totally upfront about that.

That being said, my contacts in the industry are getting destroyed this year. I know one bookie who averages 5K in action/day on the NBA, and he's STUCK ON THE YEAR making book. From what I've gathered from some friends, the sports books in Vegas (a) got killed over the first weekend in the NCAA tournament (which happens when the tournament is particularly chalky), and (b) have had a real tough go of it in the NBA this year.

Those two pieces of "evidence" alone make me think my results are simply a downswing, instead of the symptom of playing bad sides, since I should be in good shape when the books run well, and vice versa. That being said, maybe I'm in the purgatory zone, where even if square sides were covering less often enough to get the books into the black, I'd still be stuck. I doubt it, but if you're looking for a mathematical, quantifiable proof that I'm a winning sports gambler, I can't do that for you.

I believe in the method, and I believe that paying very little juice gets me into the black in the longrun. Remove this weekend, and my -30x implosion, I'm a smallish winner on sides this year. Add in my long-term positions (I've run well on futures), and I'm way up (I was leaving those out before, since they're not a good measure of performance).

I think the books tend to gamble with an edge, and I think I can identify when they're taking a stand. I'm willing to go stone broke testing that theory out.


Don't worry, Napa, I will never get upset if you ask me to defend my theories/positions, but understand that most of this is just conjecture, and I can't prove it to anyone. I can only lay my case out, and then lose thousands of dollars every weekend.

EDIT1- We're dealing with thin edges, so there's never a lock. Also, I don't know enough about stats (I already forgot it all), but I feel like the sample over which I'd have to show a profit is ridiculously large. I'd like to have at last 10K wagers before I'd feel comfortable saying "I'm a winner!" In the short run, though, I'm willing to gamble.

Wang,

Is it just as simple as "align yourself with the books"? Wait until the general public was wagered over 65% or so one side, and go the other way?

So I just ordered three books off Amazon to help get me familiar with some sports betting concepts like looking for positive expectation and trends that have potential to lead to good things, etc. They are Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong, Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting by King Pao, and Smart Money by Michael Konik.

Any educated sports bettors out there who can suggest some further reading, or tell me if these are good starters to get a feel for the business? I'm looking to start very small with a $1,000 roll after I educate myself a bit. Figure it could be an entertaining, ulcer-inducing hobby....maybe even profitable.

I can recommend nothing, as I have never read a sports-betting book. If you really want to get all learned, start familiarizing yourself with things like the Kelly Criterion, and learn how to get really fancy with Excel, Monte Carlo simulations, and help me figure out how to handle long-term positions with positive equity, specifically how I should be recognizing these unrealized gains with respect to my bankroll.

Or not. I barely even know what I'm asking.

Wang,

I'm pretty computer stupid. I don't know how to make Excel spreadsheets and stuff like that. I'm like the last man in online poker who doesn't use a poker tracking device because I can't understand how to make it work....I read a ton though, and have read some junk on Kelly Criterion, Edward Thorp, and optimal bet size. Basically, it's edge over odds, but the trick is how does one estimate his edge on a particular play. For example, say your sports picks are 55% winners, then you hold a 55-45=10% edge over the books. That kind of thinking seems to me, too good to be true. I think you'll run into situations where you go bust before you get into the long term if you run bad for a few days -- back to the John Maynard Keyes quote. Maybe I don't fully understand the Kelly, but that seems like a recipe for disaster to me.

By the way, wikipedia Edward Thorp sometime when you're bored. Very interesting man who developed the counting system to beat blackjack using Kelly Criterion betting, then got out of that game to start Princeton-Newman hedge fund and made himself a billionaire -- not bad.

Wang,

Holla at your boy! I'm 11-5-1 since reading your thread. Peace.

btw, was I holla-ing at you or were you at me!? Blame it on the Henny