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Win.by.TKo
JCarver had AsQh OTB facing 5bb raise from known HJ. Discussion leaned towards a reraise amount of ~15bb, then time alarm sounded which led to an immediate call, stating <paraphrasing> 'I've taken too long so I'm just going to call.' What is the logic for the change of heart?

I have this problem several times, and each time I get 'startled' into calling. The majority of the time, that leads to a bad result. Is quickly acting after the alarm a timing tell in itself, essentially stating 'I'm uncertain of the proper play and am now short on time so I will just call?' At this point, would folding be the better play because calling now puts you too much on the defensive....or is raising a better play because it can be perceived that you tanked to feign weakness before raising? I am really uncertain here. It seems to me that, once the alarm sounds, each choice has it's negative effect.

Please post your thoughts...thanks.
JCarver
QUOTE (Win.by.TKo @ Thursday, December 11th, 2008, 10:03 AM) *
JCarver had AsQh OTB facing 5bb raise from known HJ. Discussion leaned towards a reraise amount of ~15bb, then time alarm sounded which led to an immediate call, stating <paraphrasing> 'I've taken too long so I'm just going to call.' What is the logic for the change of heart?

I have this problem several times, and each time I get 'startled' into calling. The majority of the time, that leads to a bad result. Is quickly acting after the alarm a timing tell in itself, essentially stating 'I'm uncertain of the proper play and am now short on time so I will just call?' At this point, would folding be the better play because calling now puts you too much on the defensive....or is raising a better play because it can be perceived that you tanked to feign weakness before raising? I am really uncertain here. It seems to me that, once the alarm sounds, each choice has it's negative effect.

Please post your thoughts...thanks.


I briefly discuss this hand here. You are right in that in that spot, with a hand like AQ, we aren't particularly thrilled about any of our options. Once we take so long, I believe he thinks we aren't that strong, and is less likely to fold to our reraise. You ask if raising becomes better "because it can be perceived that we tanked to feign weakness." This only works against certain opponents and we'd have to KNOW that this would work before we raised for this reason. Against a player like the one I was up against, I really doubt he's on that level. I was unsure what to do as it was an extremely awkward position with stack sizes - with AJ we fold, with AK we raise, with 25bb's we shove, if he's deeper we can call, etc. It just so happened that in this exact situation everything came together to make a tough decision. I'm still really not sure what was best in this particular hand.

As far as our timing goes, the pokerstars alarm does definitely jolt players into acting. It definitely could be a timing tell, and you're probably right about what it means for most players. However, as far as worrying about it defensively, the chances of you being in a tough decision vs someone who is capable of picking up on an alarm timing tell AND then reading you correctly is extremely slim. Accounting for what he thinks of your general timing in terms of how long it took for you decide is a better worry. Once I took as long as I did in this particular hand, I felt he'd think we weren't that strong and thus we lost fold equity and the value of a raise was diminished.
inheritance
This hand kind of surprised me. From what I recall, you never really considered folding. With how loose he's been playing, surely you are able to find a better spot then this situation. I mean at this point of the tournament, you are in a good situation, and must think you're the best player on the table. You've been able to control the table. I think shoving/raising is a mistake, because when you are called you're usually racing or way behind. As one of the best players left deep in the field...you don't need to take these spots with your chips stack and situation.

A 5x raise seems like way too much to call. There's a lot of situations you won't like to see - eg. another opponent shoves, missed flops, original raiser has you crushed. This is a spot I would generally lean towards a fold because of your stack size and your ability to chip up with minimal risk.

This is a situation where it's high risk, high reward; but against these opponents you should be able to find quite a few lower risk, high reward situations.
JCarver
QUOTE (inheritance @ Thursday, December 11th, 2008, 12:36 PM) *
This hand kind of surprised me. From what I recall, you never really considered folding. With how loose he's been playing, surely you are able to find a better spot then this situation. I mean at this point of the tournament, you are in a good situation, and must think you're the best player on the table. You've been able to control the table. I think shoving/raising is a mistake, because when you are called you're usually racing or way behind. As one of the best players left deep in the field...you don't need to take these spots with your chips stack and situation.

A 5x raise seems like way too much to call. There's a lot of situations you won't like to see - eg. another opponent shoves, missed flops, original raiser has you crushed. This is a spot I would generally lean towards a fold because of your stack size and your ability to chip up with minimal risk.

This is a situation where it's high risk, high reward; but against these opponents you should be able to find quite a few lower risk, high reward situations.

Ya, I definitely didn't consider folding enough at the time. However, if I had folded, it would have been because of the reasons you said plus the fact that I just didn't feel very confident about the situation. The villain was pretty nutty. Against other villains, or even randoms, folding comes to mind quicker, but against a guy who was making a ton of mistakes I'm just not sure he has AQ beaten here that often. At this point, I think calling was probably the best play, but at a faster speed than what I did. I would be unsurprised to see him open KQ, KJ, Ax, and small pp's here for his 5x raise, purely based on his previous two opens (a 5x with AK and 4x with 66). He's not a guy playing supertight where his 5x would mean massive strength. I do agree with you though that raising is probably a mistake because I'm not sure this particular player will spaz out with his worse aces and KQ type hands, and he'll almost always get the money in with 99+ and AK.

As far as other things I wouldn't want to see go - I'm not really worried about other people shoving, that happens about 3% or so per person left to act, and I can pretty safely fold at that point. I doubt he has us crushed (admittedly, occasionally he does) and I'm comfortable playing flops in position, especially vs amateur players. We do whiff a lot of flops, however, I am confident in my ability to minimize losses/maximize wins to the extent that I show a profit here by calling. Being in position definitely helps, as if we were SB instead it would probably be a raise/fold situation.
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