I was asked in another forum (yes, I'm cheating on you guys with another forum) about a hand I played in my most recent video. The user asked about a comment I made at the 2:30 mark of part 2/20 in the $50 FO. The villain, playing 33/19, opens in the HJ with 50k at 500-1k. Folds to me in sb and I say "I would shove a lot here, including like, sixes". I have 27K to start the hand.

The question, summarized, is "is shoving 66 here +EV." To figure this out, we need to figure out 1. what range is our opponent opening with and 2. what range is our opponent calling with when we shove. 1 is determined by how he's been playing - loose in this case. 33/19 is pretty aggro. He's also got a pretty big stack, as well as being in late position, both factors that make us think he's raising very, very light.

We need to figure out what he's calling our shoves with. To do that, we first need to determine what effect our image will have on his calling range. Have we been reshipping a lot, do we have any previous history, are possibly perceived as tilted, etc. There are no current factors I can think of that would make me dissuaded to shove here due to an increased chance of being called. If I had to really reach, you could say that since we've been playing a bunch of pots ourselves, we should be playing tighter, however I don't think most players equate opens with reshoves. We also weren't playing THAT loose, and nothing directly involving him, so, green light.

With nothing to otherwise tell us to slow down, let's look at the cards he can call with once we do shove. We don't really know anything special about our opponent in terms of his calling 3bai's (3 bets (reraises) all in). Some players will call here with KQ, others will fold 88. Making assumptions that are just likely to be correct is part of tournament poker, though. If we assume he's calling with 88+, AJs+, and occasionally KQs, we have 35.6% equity. Those hands make up for 6% of his opening hands (all these numbers and percentages were figured out using Pokerstove, by the way).

For this example's sake, assume he opens 100% of his hands here.

6% of the time, he calls:
35.6% (2.136%) of the time, we gain 27.8K(ourstack)+1k+900, for a net gain of 29.7K
64.4% (3.864%) of the time, we lose 27.8K.

94% of the time, he folds, and we gain 4.9K.

((.356 * 29700 + .644 *-27800)*6)+94*4900)/100 = (-7330*6 +94*4900)/100= +4166.2

This produces a profit for us of +4,166.20. Obviously, he's not opening ATC in the HJ here, but he's definitely opening more than his 33/19 would suggest, as that's a percentage reflective of ALL his opens. If we say he opens 50% of his hands instead of 100%, we still show a net gain of 3432.40. You can play around with the math and actually figure out when it becomes unprofitable to ship here with what exact stack size; however, there are reasons to shove anyway even if doing so is slightly -cEV. It's the reason why I would almost never pass up a guaranteed flip in certain tournaments, especially online - the equity I'll have with 2x my current stack makes up for some of the slight losses in the decision's -cEVness.

It's intuitive to me at this point in my poker life whether the shove is profitable or not, but the only way to really know exactly is to work out the math. It's not my favorite thing to do, and I admittedly do it very rarely these days. Thanks to my friend Derk for doublechecking my work, as although I'm confident it's a +EV shove I'm not always as confident in my math skills, heh. It's important you guys understand this stuff as it's the backbone of reshoves and resteals, so if you don't get something, ask!

Also, check out this thread, which is a similar spot and the question is beaten to DEATH there and near-unanimous among people I respect.

Hey, I have a question on the hand where you openshoved AQ from utg+1. Whoever it was iso'd you with a,j. His call his horrible. But, I don't think it is as horrible as you do. For you're "real" range you put 44+,AQs+. My question for you is- are you really open shoving AA, KK and QQ here? If not, PokerStove tells me his equity against your range is just under 42%. Also, you did misspeak in the video you said he was calling 15.5k to win 20k, not the full 34k. If he has AQ, that gives him 43.75% equity against the range i put you on. His call is still not good, even though its close to a break-even play. If you notice your range and his cards. He's behind to every hand.

I agree that this is +ev, but I think you also have to factor in the 3-4% of the time that the BB wakes up with a hand that he's calling with. This will lower it to roughly 3k, assuming he's original raiser is opening with 50%, which is probably a little more realistic imo. +3900ish with the 100% opening range.

Nonetheless, it's +ev.

This question is about part 3/20 in the $50fo, 4:40 in. It's a good question, but yeah, I'm shoving QQ,KK,AA here. My other options - minraise, 3x - are just too transparent as strong since I'd most likely be shoving any two cards I decide play here. You can argue that vs weak competition here I could open to less than a shove but really 99% of the time open shipping is what I'd do. I'd be way more likely to fold small pp's like 44, 55 than I would be to not-ship AA/KK. Against AQ+ and 44+ he has 35% equity, and he's getting 1.2:1 on his call. He hasn't put in his 16k yet, the pot is just my 16.2k + 1200 + 600 + 1125 = 19114. He is risking 15.5k to win 19.1k, 1.2:1. He needs to win here 44.9% of the time to break even, and he only has 35% equity. Compounded with the fact that this is for half his stack, this is a clear fold for him.

Right, for simplicity's sake I didn't weigh that. BB calls 3% of the time here (JJ+, AK) and we win 33% of that time, and there's also a time when both BB and opener call and we would win x% of that, etc. As you said it doesn't change the number too much, I don't think it's even more than 100-200 chips or so in equity difference due to the fact it happens so rarely and we still win 33% of the time. A better adjustment we can make to be more precise is to figure out his exact open % in the HJ.

it seems like you have a ton of FE and his calling range is pretty narrow IMO

Watching videos of yours and of DN's, you both look at some flop textures and the tipping point between a call or a fold is the back door flush draw. Could you comment more on this?

What conditions are you looking for to make a flop call with a backdoor flush draw, where otherwise you would have folded? What bet size would makes you leans towards a call? Always need position? Deep stacked? Need a combo? (eg. back door flush + two overs).

What is the general plan on the turn when -

A) The turn gives us a flush draw and opponent checks into us?
opponents bets?
C) we make a top pair and are checked to?


Thanks

Speaking only for myself here, I don't really play scientifically enough to tell you exactly when a bdfd swings a decision. If it's a marginal decision, having a bdfd will make me more SLIGHTLY more likely to call/raise, simply because of the extra outs. I'm not really ever making a play with a hand based on the fact that it has a bdfd alone (IE, I have 24hh and the flop is J87 with one heart). If I decide to make what is likely a hopeless bluff on that board, that's all it is, the fact I have a backdoor flush draw is mostly irrelevant when deciding to bluff or not. A BDFD makes me slightly more likely to play the pot but my logic doesn't go "I have a backdoorflush draw, let's find a way I can play this pot," but more, when exploring options, I am more likely to weigh playing the pot (floating, bluffing, stabbing, etc) a little bit more carefully if I do in fact have a bdfd. Mind you, if I have a hand like KQhh on a Jh 7x 4x, the difference between 6 outs and 6.5 outs isn't much, but .5(bdfd) and 6.5(overs+bdfd) definitely is. Note the K/Q are probably dirty outs and shouldn't be counted as a full 6, but for this discussion, it's fine to say so. That's a lot more than .5. There are a ton of factors that should be taken into account when deciding what decision to make - having a bdfd is probably one of the smallest among them.

Your hypothetical turn decisions really depend on so much - pf action, flop action, image, the villain(s), how many handed the game is, cash or tournament, timing, gametype, etc. There's just too many variables to say "if a, and b, then do c on x turn." However, based on our opponent's timing, and just how much the turn card helped us or is likely to help them, we'd use our best judgment to decide based on all the available information whether we want to bet, bluff raise, call or fold. I know this is vague, but there's thankfully no way to have a preset answer for any situation since there are just too many unknowns in poker.

I will, however, discuss in depth next time a situation comes up in a video where I have a backdoor flushdraw and it enters into my decisionmaking process at all. Hopefully that'll help shed a little more light on this, and if anything comes to me in the meantime, I'll add some more comments.