PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($157.30)
CO ($56.90)
Hero (Button) ($67.45)
SB ($45.55)
BB ($96.65)
UTG ($18.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, 9
UTG calls $0.50, MP raises to $2.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $2.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($8.25) Q, 9, A (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets $5, Hero calls $5, UTG raises to $15.80 (All-In), MP raises to $154.80 (All-In), [color=#666666][i]Hero?

I'm not a math wizard. Think I'm getting like 1,5 on the call. Perhaps spades are dead bc of utg? Still have a main pot vs big stack. I'm so sure he's holding AA, AK, AQ or QQ here.

I can play the flop differently. Standard play is to raise. I decided to call this time due to a 4BI downswing

I like flat calling the c/bet.

I think it's probably close, but I fold to the shove.

This.

But knowing me I throw caution to the wind and accept all in anyway.

I think this is an easy fold. All the hands you put him on beat you and I think at least AQ or AK is out there in which case you'd be better off against AQ as you won't have to worry about the Ks for AK. Anyways your 2 pair outs are gone imo accord to the action. Which leaves with you a fd assuming that its not drawing dead already. 9 spades left out of 47 cards = 9 winners outta 47. 9 winners : 37 losers. Which equals approximately 4.1 to 1 (again, assuming your spade draw is still good). The pot odds are laying you $59.95 to win $94 im pretty sure. Which is as you said approximately 1.56:1 . Odds of improving: 4.1:1
Pot odds: 1.56:1, therefore the pot odds are laying you less than the likely hood of improving your hand. Which imo is an easy fold. Id appreciate it if someone would let me know if this is correct.. BTW did you fold?

He sees two cards for this price, so the relevant odds against the flush draw are 2 : 1.

Including AK (which is a lot of combinations relative to the other hands) in his range makes this a thin call.

I guess im new to the game and dont really understand this concept BaseJester, would you mind explaining it more more detail ? I think your implying that he has 2 chances to hit his flush (turn and river). But I still dont think it changes the fact that he is 4.1:1 to improve his hand

What if you were getting 10 more cards (or 47 for that matter) would it change your intuition about the odds?

The probability of missing on the turn:
(47 - 9) / 47

The probablility of missing on the river if we missed the turn:
(46-9) / 46

The probability that we miss both the turn and the river = those two probabilities multiplied together

(((47 - 9) / 47) * (46 - 9)) / 46 = 0.65

Or in odds notation:

2/3 : 1/3 = 2 : 1

I think you have sufficient reverse odds here to fold. You could be drawing thin here.

Raise flop get it in imo. The power of these hands is on the flop and in getting folds! I sometimes get angry when I hit this flop raise and everyone folds because I want to win the big pot/get even, etc. But we call with suited connectors against people that have a wide raising range pf because we can shove them off of lots of hands on the flop.

He's going to have to fold a lot of As here to a raise, if we call we probably are only getting paid well if another 9 hits. Js aren't great cards for us and spades are transparent. As for the rest of the hand, I'd probably fold after all that action.

I don't know what this means. Reverse-implied odds would mean we stand to be a dog on subsequent action, but that doesn't apply here.

What are reverse odds?

He's saying he thinks you are up against flush draw with one person and higher pair by another. Not that it matters a ton because it's more important how you are doing against the big stack.

I tanked for an hour and finally folded. UTG showed A2 (wtf!?) and big stack showed AQ. Spade hit river and I was not too happy about that.

Thanks for the reply jester, makes a lot of sense to me now as he had two chances to hit a spade whereas I think the odds I quoted would be if villian smooth called and turn came a blank ( or he was drawing to one card ). I think I calculated it right if it had been a turn situation however it would be 9/46 but I guess im not quite sure how to calculate the chance of hitting when their are two cards remaining unless its 9/47 = .19% X 2 (chances) = 40% ?

Yeah, that right.

That's close. Probably close enough for making a decision at the table.

Consider, though, when there's a 50% chance of rain on Thursday and a 50% chance of rain on Friday; you can't count 100% on it raining on one those days.

Raise flop. NLHE is about putting them to a decision for all their chips. This is a pretty good hand to do it with

Mark