Villain is a typical loose passive, but a little bit more aggressive postflop.


Full Tilt, $1/$2 Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with A Q
UTG calls, MP folds, Hero raises, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls

Flop: (6.5 SB) 4 2 T (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, BB folds

Turn: (5.8 BB) 3 (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls

River: (7.8 BB) A (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises



Is this a raise/fold spot?
Is everything ok up to the river?

Sometimes I 3-bet this flop. But it depends ...

Has villain been check raising us a lot on flops? If so, maybe he is bluffing - he may fold to a 3-bet. What is your table image - have you been playing tight? That would make it more likely he puts you on a solid hand after the 3 bet. Is there some chance that villain would cap it, maybe with just top pair? That would be bad. So, as I said, it depends ... on how the villain plays.

I don't use this line all the time, but some villains will lay this down to a 3-bet unless he has a pretty good hand. Also, some villains may put you on a big pair, but call your raise, and check to you on turn. At the point you have the option of betting on turn (hoping he doesn't have something and will lay it down then), or taking a free card hoping to hit one of your outs (which is a cheaper way to try to hit your outs with 1 extra flop SB and one less turn BB). If you do hit your outs, because you checked the turn, he may bet into you on river, and you can raise him then.

As for your line - I think it is OK. You have the odds to call the check-raise. I don't think you have the odds to call the turn bet unless you consider implied odds and you think villain will bet river giving you a chance to raise if you hit. And that is assuming you have 6 outs (3 Qs and 3As) - any chance villain has 2 diamonds, or any 5, or QT or AT (which eliminates your outs)?

(edit) - oops, after seeing the turn card, I suppose any 5 on the river also probably creates outs for you too. I missed that. So yeah, you have the odds to call the turn.

Peace,
Opie

I only call the river unless he's a maniac post-flop.

Flop: Only 2 opponents. Dry board (much drier than your other hand posted). Continuation bet is good.

But because the board is dry, we have to respect Villain's check-raise more.
Does he really have 53 here? Not Likely.
So the probability is that he has connected.
And thus we are behind with our Ace High.

Note:
Assuming this raise is bluff and already being determined to call him down unimproved would be very bad poker.
Unless we have a strong read here that tells us he bluff check-raises with trash, we must accept that we are behind and should usually not chase past the turn.



I used to do this.
And then I lost a lot of money.
So I stopped.

What do we gain from the 3-bet?
From my experience, no villain is going to check-raise-fold this flop with if they already have a piece.
They are simply going to call us down the rest of the way.
So we would just be spewing our money by pushing.

And if we really believe that this Villain is bluffing, then that means we have the best hand and should let him continue to bluff.
With that read, just call him down and let him do the spewing.




If he doesn't have anything, then our AQ is winning.
And if that's the case, we don't necessarily even want him to fold.



This reasoning can be dangerous.
Yes, when the free card play works, you can save yourself 1 small bet.
But you set yourself up for much more significant losses.
Because if Villain does cap the flop, you just lost 2 bets for very little reason.

I recommend saving the free card raise for times when your chances of improving are significantly better.
The typical example is with a strong draw of 8+ outs.


Turn:

The book rule is to rate your overs at only half price.
Because so many players play any Ace, you could be up against AT, A4, A2.
In which case, hitting your Ace is not only worthless, but it will cost you even more money.

Following this logic, your Gut Shot odds should also be adjusted.
Because you could be playing for only a split.

I give your hand 6 outs after the turn.
46 cards left; 40 bad ones; 40-6 odds = 6.7-1
You are getting 6.8-1 odds on your call.
So with implied odds, this is a call.

Note: Without the draw, and without a read to the contrary, I fold this turn almost every time.


River:

We hit our Ace.
But Villain still bets!
What does this mean??
If he only has 1 pair, what does he think he is ahead of here?

What does our raise gain value from?
Only a very badly played Single Pair who thinks we're bluffing the river pays us off.
And I don't think our opponent will make this bad play often enough to make a raise profitable.

Villain is either a very foolish player, or he has more than our 1-Pair.
I only call down this turn.
And I expect to be beaten a large percentage of the time.

--CM