CoranMoran
Thursday, December 4th, 2008, 8:46 AM
QUOTE (DinkDonk @ Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008, 12:04 PM)

I disagree with the first part. I understand that flush draws are possible and that is certainly a factor, but what straight draws are in their range that have any sort of decent equity?
If we agree that our opponents' ranges in this hand are huge, then there are a bunch of random Straight Draws that are possible.
Yes, only 54 is a strong draw, but there are numerous funky Gut Shots out there.
And the key here is that anyone with even a Gut Shot is
- not going to fold the flop
- has about as much equity in this hand as we do!
QUOTE
Most of the time on this flop, we're only unhappy when an opponent has a K.
If I thought we could get lesser pairs to fold, then I would agree with this.
But if an opponent is going to be playing little cards in the first place (and we know they often do!), then they are certainly not going to fold them when they connect.
So I am unhappy with much more than just the K
My thoughts:
I'm not terribly concerned with what equity my opponents have.
Because I feel that we are playing against opponents who don't even accurately take this into account when making decisions.
My focus here is our equity.
In general, we bet for a couple of reasons.
- Bluff
- Value
Do either of these apply here?
- Bluffing means better hands are folding.
But we know that our opponents at this level are never folding this flop if they have any piece.
So we can't force out a better hand.
- Can we realistically bet here for Value?
If Villains' ranges are huge in this hand, then between the three of them, there is a solid chance one of them has already paired up.
It is also very possible that someone began the hand with a small pair too.
In either case, we are behind and thus can not value bet.
But an important question here is whether or not we should Value Bet if our hand is still best.
Even if everyone else missed the flop too, our equity is still not that great.
As mentioned, we don't even have significantly favorable equity against weak draws.
So unless all three opponents whiffed the flop completes (which is highly unlikely), a bet has slim to no value with our Ace High.
Point: When you combine the significant chance that we are behind, to the fact that we don't have great equity even when ahead, I can't really find any reason to bet.
--cm