This hand happened quite early in this tournament, and villain was playing quite a few hands, but as of yet did not show any down. I must admit I was watching a movie at the same time so I may have missed something I shouldn't have.

Early position raised and got a caller so I tagged along in the CO with kqcc, button folds, blinds call. Yay position.

Checks to me on flop, I check behind so I get to see a free card. I didn't want to get check raised off my hand and I felt as though a semi bluff into this many players seemed ill advised. (Is this correct?)

SB bets half the pot and gets a caller. I think yay pot odds and call.

The river is the part I think I may have played wrong. SB instabets less than half the pot. For some reason I am quite sure he hit his flush but did not rule out a bluff just from how I've seen him play. I am afraid of the A high flush, and also not to be ruled out are 2 possible str8 flushes, the 85cc and 53cc since he is the sb.

My question: Is this playing scared and did I miss value on the river by not raising?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t2349)
BB (t620)
UTG (t2845)
UTG+1 (t1800)
MP1 (t2005)
MP2 (t1375)
Hero (CO) (t2081)
Button (t2915)

Hero's M: 46.24

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q , K
2 folds, UTG+1 raises to t90, 1 fold, MP2 calls t90, Hero calls t90, 1 fold, SB calls t75, BB calls t60

Flop: (t450) 4 , 7 , 8 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t450) 2 (5 players)
SB bets t275, 2 folds, MP2 calls t275, Hero calls t275

River: (t1275) 6 (3 players)
SB bets t525, 1 fold, Hero calls t525

Total pot: t2325

Hero ships!

There is no reason to get involved in this pot with this FD without shipping when you hit

I agree with ace, you've got to raise there, no reason to draw if you aren't going to get paid off.

Turn the movie off and focus 100% on poker to have accurate reads on the players and raise the river definitely.

Wow.

Just wow.

Unless you have a read that says "villain prefers to check big flush draws on the flop and bet the turn when he completely misses", bet.

You definitely played this hand scared. If you're going to draw to a flush on the turn, you need to raise a river bet. With your stack, the only move is all in. You're either getting coolered or doubling up... no sense in losing value the many times that you're ahead here.

I don't mind the check behind on the flop and the call on the turn but please please please PLEASE reraise/shove the river, what do you want with your hand? He shows up with the nut flush I'd say < 20% of the time here and shows up with a hand that pays off a reraise more than that

I thought raising was the proper play myself, or I wouldn't have asked the question. I've been in a bit of a funk over the last couple days where i am always putting people on hands that beat me.

The irony here is that he indeed showed me the 85cc for the str8 flush. He was stunned when I didn't raise, and I thought maybe that I was supposed too. (thus the post)

Trying not to be results oriented, I thought maybe the raise was the +ev play.

PS he said he was intending to check raise the flop. If I bet the flop, and he raises big enuf, I likely get away from this hand. I doubt I would have given myself the full 15 clean outs.

villain REALLY needs to lead flop here.... don't ya think?

yes. the pot is almost 25% of heros stack, and taking it down is a good result. If a pot sized bet is called its almost certainly going to see a free card on the turn, so youre getting the odds you need. If youre reraised all in, call it, youve got 10 (incl. runner runner silliness) -15 outs.

meh.

What hands call hero's all-in on the river?

Does villain call with a straight? Be it a naked 5 or a T9?

Jack high flush? Has the hand played like a Jack High flush?

Hero has the 10th best possible hand...don't oversell it.

If you're villain and have JcTc, as played, do you call if your river bet is raised all in, calling off 1200 of your remaing 1500 chips? If you call, is it because you believe your opponent raised with 9c8c? Or because you believe (hope) he's betting the phony flush?


In the long run, I'm not sure if hero gets called enough by worse hands to justify a river raise.



Also - though I could agree that SB should be leading...I can see him expecting UTG1 to place a continuation bet.

Villain shows up with worse here a lot more than you are giving credit. Personally, I think villains bet here looks like a block bet with a straight fwiw. But I think a decent percentage of the time does he still call with worse in this situation.

As stated, if you lose this hand, it is a cooler, move on.

Wow. Fckn ship it on the river, dude, wtf?

Even if it is a "decent percentage of the time" he still has to call with a worse hand quite often. Do you think an all-in gets called by a worse hand more than 35% of the time? I could be off base, or giving the general audience of a $55 tourney too much credit, but I think that's a tall order. And I don't mean calling 35% of the time with just a Jack flush...but calling with ALL his likely holdings, combined, that are worse than your hand.

He NEVER folds a better hand to an all-in raise on the river.

Do you think he puts in a blocker bet with a straight, and then calls off 80% of this chips, half the size of the pot? I think most people would have a problem calling with the ten high flush, let alone the ten high straight.


How often do you think he really calls with a straight? Compared to the number of times he'd have you beat. If he really is putting in a blocker bet, he's putting in a bet that is around what he would call if he checked to you...what he's doing is narrowing your holdings if you do go all in.

You better be pretty sure he's that bad to call with T9o, or, as villain, if you're willing to call that raise, you need to know your opponent bluffs 1/3 of the time here.

It's a great bet by villain because it looks like a blocker bet...meant to entice a raise. In his position, I could do that, or sometimes just go allin and hope your opponent has the Ace flush.

If I was facing that blocker-style bet, I'd raise all-in with the low straight, or worse, because I'd have a lot of fold equity....I just don't see the value with KcQc.

It's also a problem with having KQ of clubs - now villain can't have a queen high flush....so, it's one more set of hands he'd be worried about.

I think a raise with KcJc is likely correct (but even that's close), because you get called by enough Q flushes to make the difference over the number of times the lower flushes, and straights, fold...which I think is more often than you believe. AcQc has more value than AcKc for the same reasons (no, I'm not saying just call with AcKc). Ac8c has more value, and Ac3C is the most valuable second nut hand to have on this river. They're all raising hands, but I think it's important to recognize the relative value of each hand in every situation...KcQc is not nearly as pretty or valuable as people want to believe, in this situation.

There is a certain (high) percent of people who will call a king high flush to this raise. Lower for Q high...lower again for J high. Since the King and Queen high flushes are out of the equation, and, as far as villain knows are possible holdings he's up against, the question here is if the number of callers of a Jack high flush, or worse, is big enough to make a raise equitable.

This is a bit of a math exercise and this may help explain my position - it might also help me convince myself I'm wrong.



I'm the first to admit here that I might be giving villain, or a random villain in this tournament, too much credit in being able to fold a hand like Jc9c, or even Td9s.



First, I think my 35% is wrong...since we are never folding, calling takes care of whatever equity you might have in the pot.

So, you are betting $1200 to win $1200.


There are 9 hands that beat you, and villain calls them 100% of the time. So, villain has to call with a worse hand 10 times to make your bet worthwhile. (you can argue about whether or not breaking exactly even is worthwhile).


There are 19 total flush hands that you beat.

There are 6 ways for him to have a Jack High flush.
Five ways to have a ten high flush.

So, if he calls EVERY jack and ten high flush hand, EVERY time, your bet is justified. You assume he calls 80% of the time with J flush, 50% of the time with Ten flush, 10% of the time with 9 flush....you start seeing how difficult it is to break even.

And that assumes that every flush hand is in his range. Does calling a pf raise from the sb with 85s mean he'll call with J2s or T2s? You start taking hands out of his pf calling range and it becomes even more difficult. Even if it means you take 85 and 53 out of his likely holdings.

After that, it just comes down to whether or not he thinks his J flush is good, because from his perspective he's calling 1200 to win 2200. And from his perspective there are 20 hands that beat his....24 hands if he has the ten high flush.

I have a hard time believing he calls very often with the jack high flush, let alone any other weaker flush.

There are also 16 ways he can have the nut straight....and 16 more to have the 9-high straight. I just have a hard time considering them as possible calling hands...more than 1 in a 100 times anyway.

But, again, I might just be giving the typical villain here way too much credit.

In the $60 live tourneys I play, raising all-in here is -ev.

So, I think it's a legitimate question.

Do you get called by a worse hand more often than by a better hand? I don't think this is as straightforward as some want to believe. With reads you can easily be swayed one way or the other. Without reads, I think it's very close. I honestly think, by raising, you're flipping a coin for your tournament life, at best.