PokerStars: $500+$30 Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (300/600)

Seat 1: CobaltBlueX (8100 in chips)
Seat 2: Neab (9925 in chips)
Seat 3: HooBangin (12875 in chips)
Seat 4: theczar19 (35050 in chips)
Seat 5: intervntion (38460 in chips)
Seat 6: mr_natoli (18850 in chips)
Seat 7: gemen2006 (6475 in chips)
Seat 8: MONSTER_DONG (4075 in chips)
Seat 9: TherookieQQ9 (25100 in chips) is sitting out
MONSTER_DONG: posts small blind 300
TherookieQQ9: posts big blind 600

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CobaltBlueX [8d Td]
CobaltBlueX: raises 1000 to 1600


My image is tight. I haven't raised in a few orbits. I've made some raises from EP in the past and taken the blinds. Blinds are going up soon. 'Really really bad' or legit?

IMO I hate it. T8 has little value even if it's suited. To make a straight, you have to fill that special space with one card and one card only: a 9. And if you get flatted, it's check fold time unless you absolutely crush the flop (ie: 2 pair on a rainbow board or at least 2 D's)

You're actually better off shoving outright than making a standard raise, but I have no experience at this level and poker luck hates me more than Jews hate Nazis, so...wtf do I know...

This is really, really bad.

Raise/folding with 13 bbs from anywhere on the table is kind of ridiculous.

Def too short to raise/fold

I guess I made the same sort of play but had a legit hand in AKo and when reflecting back it is an all in or fold in your position.

If you're thinking fold equity, I say no. You're probably getting called or reraised. Anyone who wakes up with a hand behind you isn't terribly concerned with your table image. The only reason you should raise UTG here is to get action.

Getting flat-called based on stack sizes is probably pretty stupid on my opponent's part. And, you're saying that people behind me won't fold a lot of hands better than mine?

oh they will fold k10 and aj but people hate folding aq/ ak, 1010/jj.

Oh, they'll fold a few hands that are better than yours, but they'll also call and reraise with hands better than yours too, and there's a pretty wide selection in both cases.

Here's the rough range I expect 5 of them to move in with: 88+,AQs+,AQo+
Here's the rough range I expect 2 of them to move in with: 55+,AJs+,AJo+ (in which case I call with 35% equity)

Chance of one of those scenarios happening: ~35%
Therefore, chance it folds around: ~65%

I'm risking 1600 to win 900...therefore I need to win 64% of the time to be +cEV.

There are way more hand combinations that are better than mine that they'll fold than hand combinations that are better that they won't.

~6% of the total possible hands on average will probably move in on me or rarely call. 57.8% of hands possible are "better" than mine. Therefore, they will usually fold 90% of hands that are better than mine.