Like to know what's going on with everyone on NFL bets this week. There hasn't been discussion this week so maybe we can get in some late picks/talk.

My Leans:

Chicago -3.5
Buffalo +1.5
Indianapolis -3
Philly -6
Tampa Bay +3

I suck at sports betting, but did make money on NFL bets last week...surprisingly.

Generally i don't bet on the NFL. However i did once win £600 (about $1200) with a bet on the Patriots to win the Superbowl when they were 2-2 (in the 2003 season i think).

There's been less and less discussion each week. I think people are running out of money.

I think the out of money is where i am heading too! I am not that excited about the lines today but will take a shot in the dark.


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers Over 38½ --chiefs playing better and the panthers will score 27 on their own
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles Over 42 -- eagles will burn the one on one wr matchups
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 -- just throwin blind dart here
Buffalo Bills +2 -- Zona--- will have their usual 4 turnovers
Cincinnati Bengals +17 -- dallas defense is not good enough to allow a cover
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys Over 45½ --- same --- dallas defense and henry is back at wr-- easy cover

good luck -- if anyone is still playing

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Carolina Panthers Over 38½ -- good god can KC not score 5 points---gees
Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles Over 42 -- another d'oh-- two freakin points! d'OH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 -- blind dart hits the bullseye!
Buffalo Bills +2 -- Zona--- woops
Cincinnati Bengals +17 -- this was an easy one--- I knew as a dallas fan cincy would cover-- there is not doomsday DEFENSE in dallas--- very sad!
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys Over 45½--- DITTO!

3-3 leaves me -2 nfl and -5 ncaa for the year. pretty normal for me. I guess I should be happy that i am not broke yet! Where are all you people----COME BACK!

Pfffft...this has been one of the easiest seasons ever..... so far





I am gonna get so screwed one of these weeks though.


I am going against the Contrarians for MNF. I guess that makes me a contra-contrarian.

Whatever....I see NO beating the hell out of Minn. Taking NO-3 for 4units

I didn't even bet any games this week in the end. Probably a good thing. I may bet NO -3 tomorrow night. They are at home, I see an easy win.

riding the NO train as well

Let's see... a blocked field goal...a stupid on side kick attempt... a fumble on the 5 yard line... New Orleans is trying to lose this for me.... jerks.

Already had a loosing weekend... sitting at +28 now

I know! I am already scouting for a high bridge! I do not need this!

lol

I decided to start my NFL challenge on Monday.

My first pick? NO -3


Damn 0-1-0 already

We'll see how well I do next week



Edit: What's the quickest way to learn about sports betting? I've heard Wong has some sort of method... any good websites or forum discussion on the topic of betting (specifically football)?

There is no quick way, its a lot of trial and error, on things you like to look at when handicapping games. Wang and me have different fundamental approaches to looking at games. He looks at line movements and so forth (there is a thread about it). I tend to look at player matchups, how the O-line and D-lines for both teams are playing and so forth. I completely disagree with anyone that states that breaking down games is worthless. So pick your poison on which way you want to "cap" the games.

Two sites that i found helpful when starting to bet games a few years ago were professional gambler which has some good articles about bankroll management among many other things. The second site is sports memo. This site has a forum and some good discussion among professional hadicappers and amatuer ones, you get decent injury updates here in the forum sometimes. Both these sites do have ppl that sell thier picks but dont buy them. Just read the articles and lurk in the forums, lots of good information on there. Hope this helps and good luck.

Drop down to +26

well I think wang system is completely flawed. I mean his idea is sound but he finds a game that the public really likes and goes big on it. ( betting several units) This seems really flawed. The assumption is the book really likes the line so he bets big on that game. ??? This assumes the books are never wrong. We all know what happens when you assume! Keep in mind Wang is broke! I emailed to ask if he is still playing but never got a response. My system is not so hot either. I am down 8 units this football season. I think Powerpoker advice is sound. Looking at those sites is a good start. Get all the information you can and try to make an educated guess. That is what I am trying to do. Although the flow of information on this site is really dissappearing! The key is to bet within a budget. Like power poker says --- bankroll management! I am down eight units but will manage my bankroll to last the season. finger crossed!

Thank you very much for the starting out advice and I'll definitely check those two websites out.

I'm definitely a decent football junkie and I enjoy knowing what I can about each team. NFL turns out to be the best reality TV in a sense

The part that I'm definitely clueless on is the methodology. As far as how many units to bet, what the line says, what the movement of the line means, what the other bets are other then straight point spread or money line and how to utilize them, etc.



When I think of sports gambling, I always think of history questions that could lead to interesting information. Is there a site out there that you can look up past information of say, the last 10 years, (where you can adjust the details on what you're searching for)?

Like, if I was to bet 1 unit money line (not spread) on every team that had a 17 point advantage or more, have they, historically, won enough (NCAA and NFL) to make up for the times they actually lost (like USC vs. Stanford or OSU)?

Or, has the final point difference on games spread at +/-8 been a majority of 7 points or less?

I'm sure that I'm one of a billion people who ask questions like that who are looking for an edge when it comes to betting on football. There's just seems to be so many things that you can bet on that a certain consistent pattern (however small an advantage to the player) would come out somewhere to alleviate the house adv to maybe... 51-49 in your favor (which takes a lot of practice and work just counting at blackjack).


That's not to say that I would want to bet like that. I enjoy football so much that I have more fun knowing little details about each team and watching to see what plays out on game day. Anyway, I'm off to read those sites Thanks again

lol at little trinket 55. Because he didn't respond to an e-mail means he is broke?

This is Wang's method.

it is not only because he did not respond. He has not posted any plays the last couple of weeks and is posting in other forums. If you look at his record this year then maybe you would stop laughing. I am sorrying he has disappeared. I enjoyed his input. You can never have enough information when trying to make decisions. When you add up all the points of this post and the fact he loves discussing wagers going broke is a real possibility. Going broke in wagering is nothing to be ashamed of. ( along as you are smart and not betting money you can't afford to lose!) I hope he returns---

PS-- name calling is a real intelligent method of communication

Last things first. That wasn't name calling. I have no idea what your name is and whenever I glance at it I think "little trinket." So it's a nickname, not a put down.

Second, whether he is broke or not has no bearing on whether the method is sound. If somebody is interested in sports betting, it's worthwhile to learn that viewpoint.

Ty for the link


/reading it

I miss that silly nigger and his satire.

I may as well post my week six leans.

Raiders +9
Ravens +4.5
Bengals +6
Seahawks -1

fair enough just a misunderstanding- the post started with lol and then called me "little trinket". I agree with your advice that about learning all views. I was advised by another poster, and I agree with it, the system would only work if you bet against EVERY line the public likes. Even then I am unsure of the soundness of this system. Of course I do applaud Wang for his approach. I do wish Wang would come back!


PS-- I accept that nicknane so please use "little trinket" in any future posts! Please also give any ideas you have on this weekend's games---

So I've been reading all this stuff.


The contrarian point of view is extremely interesting. I wish there was a graph that showed the success rate against the popular bet (at least 60% in favor for it). Or at least just those kinds of games where the books aren't showing much interest in moving the line towards the people who are hammering one side.



Other then that, I think I learned a ton about sports betting today. I can see how hard it is to be more then 53% successful. The last thing I'm trying to find solid commentary on is when to raise your bet (as in blackjack counting systems). Just raise your bet on your most solid picks and keep at 1 unit on your shakiest ones?




Heh, I'm having fun with this Start up the talks on NFL Week 6 already!

If your bettin for fun then you can raise your bet whenever you want but if you doing it for a living i highly suggest never raising you bet. Keep all bets at a 2% max of your bankroll until your bankroll reaches lets say a 50% increase and then take 2% of that. Rinse and repeat, and once your bankroll grows and you can increase you bet size dont lower it if you hit a losing streak, it will just take longer to make the money you lost back.

Awesome advice, thanks!


Since I'm definitely just doing it for fun, say I've got a few picks I really like and a few picks I barely like. Would it be obnoxious to do 2 units on my best ones and 1 unit on the others? Or would you suggest to just keep it at the flat 1 unit no matter what?

great advice-- if i could only figure that 50 increase part out-------UGH!