Villian stats: 36/2.25/1.3


Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $15.95
UTG+1: $62.60
CO: $88.70
mattnxtc: $25.65
SB: $8.55
BB: $13.25

Pre-flop: (6 players) mattnxtc is Button with Q K
UTG calls, 2 folds, mattnxtc raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: K 5 A (6.5SB, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, mattnxtc bets, BB calls, UTG folds.

Turn: 4 (4.25BB, 2 players)
BB checks, mattnxtc bets, BB raises, mattnxtc calls.

River: 3 (8.25BB, 2 players)
BB bets, mattnxtc ???

I think this plays pretty straight forward. I made what I felt was the correct decision, but now I am questioning it. What say you all?

check turn?

you ever consider checking the turn and calling a bet on the river in situations like this?

if you had second pair and the board was more like qt35 on the turn i would say bet for value, but the ace changes things i think.

as played if you call the checkraise you have to call the river.

-Its another one of those continuation-bet-with-2nd-pair-runs-into-top-pair situations...
crying call I guess, getting like 8 to 1

Fold the turn if you think you're behind. You don't have the odds to draw, and you're almost never getting a showdown without putting in another bet.

I don't hate the check turn/call river line, but you should know that the player is willing to fire his complete range on the river.

I play this exactly the same and call the river. I think the check turn/call river line misses too much value if the guy is going to showdown a reasonable % of the time. Our odds to improve combined with the % of the time we have the best hand makes the turn a call. Once you've gotten to the river, I just don't think we can fold. Call and expect to lose most of the time.

Unless you know this guy is going to go for super-thin value, he probably isn't c/c,c/r with is small and medium aces. He's also 3-betting preflop with most of his big Aces, so his range is pretty polarized to bluffs/semibluffs and 2 pair hands with very few hands in between. I think this is a pretty standard calldown without a read.

(I assume he was an unknown given the lack of a read in the OP.)

Is there any reason to believe that someone this passive is c/r the turn with something we beat? Granted, the turn card is a decent card to semibluff if villian thinks hero might be c-betting a pair like 99 or 88, but is a semibluff c/r even in this guys arsenal given the limited stat info we have about him?

I bet the turn as well because passive means he might peel that flop with alot of hands, and may call down with a worse king or smaller pair, but once we get checkraised we're probably drawing. If we have 5 clean outs we can probably call the turn getting 7.25:1 and expect to win at least one more bet when we hit.