I am not seeing anybody cap with anything except aces, kings, and aks in this game at this limit.

the player in question has played 15 hands and not raised preflop once yet. there is also a timing thing here, he is hitting the button as fast as he can, his actions are normally a little paused.

i really want to fold this turn.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with K K
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Button calls, Hero calls.

Flop: 2 5 T (12.5SB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Button calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: 9 (9.75BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero??

Very possible you are up against AA, I slow way down here with all the possibilities out there, but I think fold would be the best move here. I put villian on AA or trips. If you can't see laying it down then call, and c/c the river. Only hands you can beat is QQ or JJ

Show Down Monkey thinks he has AA at least 70% of the time, and even the flush got their, but he still thinks calling down is pretty much the play. 'Nanars: shipped, imo.

(Implied value: in a short game, you really want the good, aggressive players to see you fold after capping the first two rounds?)

Well, at this point, there's $42 in the pot, and you're putting in $4. Whether you put him on two pair, pocket aces, or trips, the math doesn't change. You'd need a king, and there are two left. You're about 8% to hit, and you'd have to put in what amounts to 9% of the pot, so on direct numbers. Implied odds if you do hit would take the pot over the amount neccesary to call.

In no limit, you would fold, I think, but here I'd have to call.

It's not about drawing to a king, it's about our equity against his range. There are hands in it we beat.

I'm folding this never. Calldown and scoop when he shows you QQ.

you need at least 2-300 hands on a guy before you're even considering folding KK to this guy, or see him limp QQ, maybe.

if he is SO tight that he is ONLY capping AA or KK then why is he leading out when the flush hits on the turn leaving himself open for a check raise when he is drawing slim or dead?

its HU and he has the ace of clubs so there is no way i could have a flush?

Not that I think this is particularly relevant to the question at hand, but even if he has the Ac, QcJc and KcQc are almost always in my range here, and KcJc at least half the time.

i had a brain fart, you are absolutly correct.

Results?

i hit a king and raised his aces.

I'm thinking about what I need to win this hand under the worst circumstances as a method of showing him that there is NO reason to fold. He felt like he was against aces, and based on that read, you do the math with the worst in mind, and that means drawing to the king. And as it turned out, that's exactly what was happening.

i don't have the odds to draw to a king.

if he is sure the guy has aces, he should fold his kings. the argument we're making is that he can't have enough info on the guy to do that over his sample size, even if it does lean very, very close to it.

You don't do the math vs. the one hand you "put him on." You calculate your equity vs. his entire range. We do not have enough information to say AA is his entire range (and probably never will.) This is a calldown every time given this situation/information. We aren't expecting to win very often, but folding can be a gigantic mistake. Calling down is pretty much never a very big mistake. Make your marginal laydowns with the bottom of your range. Don't try to be a hero.

noone wants to cap the flop against a basic unknown?

That was my first instinct and would probably do it 100% of the time on a flop like this.

I would slow down on the turn though and just b/c

Yeah, I didn't comment on flop play, but I'm capping flop and b/c most of the time. If I do just call the flop 3 bet, it's because I'm c/r the turn.

Interesting thread.

I also cap the flop. As played, I call down. He doesn't have to have QQ all that often for us to be profitable here.

I'm late to the party, but my first thought was this is QQ and JJ exactly as often as it's AA and TT. I love the button mash read, though, almost like he's clicking "raise any" before the action gets to him.

I'm calling down here all the time.