Early watches are:
Washington -3 over Ari

Dog of the week is Cinn +13.5 at Giants

Long game of the week Minn -3 over Carol

don't take cincy + anything, they are that bad

I agree.... lol.. I was just referring to watching it because of the early money.

They do suck...you are correct.

I would be curious what the over/under line for the Giant sacks is for that game. I feel bad for Palmer.

+/- 7

How bout Bills -9.5 over the Raiders at home? I'll probably bet it mainly because I am a Bills fan but I don't think it is a terrible bet anyways.

Couple of early leans.

Chiefs +5
Tampa +3

I really can't see the chiefs beating anyone this season.

The raiders were going to be there easiest test

That's why I don't ever bet the Cowboys...tends to cloud your view. However... that looks like a pretty dangerous play right now. There's a lot of play going to the Bills so this line is going to go up.... if it goes to 10.5 I'd take the Raiders and the points.

Yea, I usually don't bet much at all, but the Bills were vastly underrated going into the season so I capitalized on the first two weeks. I am a little uneasy about this one especially with the line keep going up.

How bout Lions +4 against SF?

I like that game and maybe NYJ +9.

Week 3 NFL Leans

KC +5.5 @ ATL

This game reminds me a lot of the OAKie game from last week. Bad team catching points at bad team.

Dallas @ Green Bay +3

Carolina @ Minnesota -3.5

Houston +5 @ Tennessee

St. Louis @ Seattle -9.5

That seems like waaay too many point for Seattle to be laying, right?

OAKie +9.5 @ Buffalo

Jacksonville +5 @ Indy

I also might give Pittsburgh +3.5 @ Philly a look, but I really like this Philadelphia team, and don't feel too comfortable fading them coming off a Monday Night football loss.


This one probably won't catch a play, but I'd really like to.


EDIT-

Add San Diego -9.5 to the list.

I like the Houston game a lot, it doesn't seem like they're getting enough points here.

Even after coming off of a loss on MNF, I'm getting the feel that the public view is really high on Phila, and probably low on Pit since they're unimpressive Sunday night win.

Edit: That SD game seems like a lot of points to be giving up...book it.

Edit Edit: NYJ are getting 62% of the action as a road underdog. You going to unload your whole bankroll on this game?

Yeah that might end up being an 8 banger. I went through and filled out some contests today, and they got pretty heavy looks.

bet the dog in any games that the line is set at 5 or 5.5. This line for some reason becomes an easy dog line. The Vikings as 3.5 point favs against the 2-0 panthers is messed up.


My early leans this week are Houston and Jacksonville. Both div games with too many points.

Indy without Saturday is not the same team. The center position in football is the most overlooked position.

I thought I heard on ESPN earlier today that Saturday would be playing this weekend. Was I mistaken?

Vikings -3
Chiefs +6
Steelers +3.5

Chargers -9

Houston +4.5
Pittsburgh +3.5
Seattle -9.5

CONTRARIAN ALERT: Houston opened at +5, Tennessee has got 65% of the action, and the line is now at 4.5.

Exactly why I bet it. Trying out these "contrarian" ideas.

Seems like the public is pounding atl pretty hard..


I also noticed the line moved the wrong dirrection on the minnesota game, as the majority of the public is betting on carolina, yet the line went from car +3 to car +3.5.....


I'll make my picks this week to be KC +6.5, Minnesota ( 2 units) -3.5 and Greenbay +3 (2 units)

Im curious as if contrarianism is better used if numbers that are moving are acutally crossing "key" numbers not insignificant ones. A move from 5 to 4.5 is basically the same number, and is rather unimportant and i dont consider this an important line move. Wonder if someone wanted to actually track games that move over key numbers and what the ATS is there. If this line moved from 5 to 3.5 and crossed a key number being 4, i think it should be noted because thats an important number.

Although your theory is pertinent, it isn't in line with contrairanism. Contrarianism is simply the idea that the majority of people are wrong so bet the other way. If a line moved across a number..that in itself could make me look at it more closely. To be an effective true contrarianist... you would have to play every single game for the numbers to have any true value. To simply say that the masses are generally wrong so taking the Panthers against the Vikes makes that a good bet is false.


Good luck everyone!

ATL -6
BUF -9.5
TENN -5.5
SF -5.5
SF OVER 46.5
SAINTS OVER 51.5
PITT +3.5
BROWNS +125
PACKERS +3
JETS OVER 44.5

Completely agree, good point.

Im not a contraianist by any means, i rather break down games, always been my style, always will be.

While this is pretty true, it's not at all the basis of the theory. I'm going to go do something more productive and smash my face into a wall, though. GL

That seems to work well for me sometimes too.

Washington -3 over Ari Won 2 units

Dog of the week is Cinn +13.5 at Giants Won 2 units

Long game of the week Minn -3 over Carol Won 6 units



Total for the year: + 29 units


If I could play the Dallas game.... which I can not... I would go 5 units on Dallas -3.

I like Under 50.5 in the Dallas/GB game tonight.

I love SD -9 and really love under 44.5 tomorrow.

Heh. Ok I'll take the bait.

The idea is that since the bookmakers can handicap a lot better than we can, no handicapping we do is going to give us an advantage. They know what a good line is for a game. They also know where everyone bets. In order to either balance action or gain a larger advantage, they will move the line to account for public opinion. Since the public generally has a very poor perception of teams and games, and the bookmakers have a great perception on those things, why would we bet with the public and against the books?

The line will be moved to garner more action from the generally wrong public. I want to be on the side that isn't drooling on itself calling in for -EV action. You are welcome to do what you wish with your money, I am simply attempting to explain the theory.

BTW are you and BigDMcgee friends?

I think you misunderstood me... I wasn't making fun of you or anything.... I was agreeing with you. I understand the theory.

I don't know BigDMcgee.

I also LOVE the unders on the Dallas game...but I am not allowed to play on this game.

I'll dig into tomorrows game and get back with you in a bit on my thoughts for MNF.

3-0 +10 units for NFL

I wish I could have placed that 5 unit bet on the Cowboys..... but...whatever...

How bout them BOYS !?!?

The Browns are so god dam awful. Derek Anderson should drop dead. I'd rather watch a gold fish be our quarterback. BRADY! BRADY! BRADY!

Hey Hollywood-- I am a Dallas Fan as well so you are always okay in my book but you have to start putting these plays in before the games are over. I am drinking because Dallas games make me nervous but it seems that you say your winning bets are after the games are completed. I have been drinking so tell me if I am wrong. I also do not understand how a Dallas fan can bet for the skins. Seems like not betting on dallas, you should not be able to pick skins games. Same bias judgement! I bet against the skins and lost. I feel like I lost because of my own bias. I feel like you have a good feel for games but you need to post before kickoffs. Go Cowboys my friend!

Are you drinking?

yes i am --- point?

I did put these games in before they were over. Look who started this thread. These were posted days before kickoff.

I don't bet against the skins just because I hate them. My hatred for any team doesn't cloud my mind like my love for the Boys does.

woops--- my apologies--- that is why you have a winning record while i am .500 and losing due to juice---- congrats on a good sunday!

looks like Vegas was right on with the Vikings line but they were way off with the Atl-KC game. If Atlanta was a 7.5 point fav against KC as they should have been I would have been all over it. Instead the short line of 4.5 made me take KC. Great week for me overall survived my survivor pool with Buff. The pool is down to 500 already with a 1000 players out in the first 3 weeks. Clev is going to have a rough year because of there schedule always look at which Conference crossover div each Div will play they got the 2 toughest div to play against NFC East and AFC South

TENN, JACK, INDY, Houston, PHili, Wash, Dall, NYGiants. Also the 2 add on games are @ buff and home to Den. They do not have one easy game.

When betting team wins over under always look at which teams will get NFC west and AFC east, as well as what the 2 addon games are.

Betting against the Jets seems to be a good thing so far.

I think avoiding Jets and Patriots games right now is a good idea.