Since I'm going to attempt to bet on some soccer this year, I figured I'd keep track of it here and hopefully get some feedback. Beginner's luck has me roped in, as I'm 5-1 so far. I'm not sure what my betting unit is right now, I've doubled it from last week, but I'll keep track as if all bets are a single unit.

Tomorrow's plays...

Arsenal -115
FC Porto -134
Juve -125
Lyon -107
Bayern Munich -123

5-1 +3.86U

LJ covered it, I'd probably bet on an Arsenal draw, a Zenit win, A porto draw and Lyon and Munich to win.

Wait... you're 5-1 !
First I heard of this.... keep us posted please.

People bet on soccer?

Touche.

I love soccer. I had the Fox Soccer Channel on all day, and watched the whole Man U-Villarreal match. A lot of posts and near misses in that one. I still think a game ending in a tie is pretty stupid, especially 0-0.

Lyon let me down today, falling behind early.

Today: 3-2
Overall: 8-3 +4.25x

I don't know, exactly, what you're betting on, but it looks to me like you're laying a lot of chalk, which probably means you're taking all favorites, and backing some pretty public sides. You know my schpiel: be careful. When I was betting EuroCup action, I don't think I had a single favorite, except when I was getting half a goal (ie, winning draws).

Are you making these bets FOR one unit? Or TO WIN one unit?

I laid some chalk today. I plan on playing only very small favorites to cash. The only thing I'm betting on is the teams that are around +110 to -120 to win and the other team is more than 3-1 to win. It just doesn't make sense to me that you can get even money on a team that's 3 or 4 times more likely to win the game. I know the draw is factored in, but it just doesn't compute in my brain, so I'm going to see if it can work, at the very least more action and something to follow until the NBA starts. Also, I've just started trackin all past results going back 6 years to see how I would have done, so we'll see.

I'm making the bets for one unit, and I don't know why. I've always bet to win one unit even going back to when I started betting in 8th grade.

That team is 3 or 4 times more likely to win than the OTHER team, but they're still only winning the game around half the time (whereas the other team is winning closer to 12.5% of the time). I don't want to harp on this, because it seems like you really do buy into the whole Contrarianism thing I preach around here, but it's slightly troubling to see you agreeing with the theory in the abstract, but reverting to old (admittedly VERY hard to break) habits in practice.

That being said, maybe (to paraphrase Billy Beane) my shit doesn't work in soccer. I wish you the best.

Better idea, though? Start making some NCAAF plays for a small amount. College football is, by far, the best thing ever. It takes a while to get into -- lots of teams, tough to track -- but if you start this year, you'll be all over shit next year. I already miss the relaxing nature of bases.

I know, I know. I just can't comprehend that a team that heavily favored won't win more than half the time. It's like knowing it's possible when you die that you're just dead...forever. You know what forever means, but it's hard to understand what forever means.

Good one. That's my favorite quote from Moneyball.

I think I'm going to start tailing your NCAAF picks since you started off so bad. You're going to have to progress towards the mean as the season plays out.

Gambler's Fallacy FTL

No way. So if he's a lifetime .500 punter, and goes 4 weeks at 30%, he's just going to stick at 30% forever. No. He's going to get back closer to .500. You're thinking roulette.

No that's not what I was saying. It's just that his expectation is the same 50% no matter what the first couple of weeks brought. The stats don't make up for their earlier lack of cooperation.

Whatever, boys. We'll end up on Colorado tonight, somehow.

Catching 3 at home vs. Coach Stewart? SIGN ME UP

I don't believe that. Rafael Furcal is about a .285 hitter every year, but he always has a horrendous first month or two, but you know he'll always finish the season anywhere between .275 and .300, so he's going to have a stretch where he's hitting around .350- .375. I've always traded for him after the first month or two for this reason, and I ride him while he's putting up Ted Williams type numbers. Works every year.

Do you have any reason to expect that I'm going to struggle the first weeks of an NCAAF season? If, for example, I'm a statistically significant losing player for the first 2 weeks of the season over a large sample, but turn a 25x profit during an average NCAAF season, then your idea would have merit: it's very likely that I'm closer to a +35x player the rest of the way.

But I feel it is unlikely that is the case. More than anything, I think it was a few bad breaks here and there. My punting skills stay relatively static week-to-week, in which case my expected return from here on out is probably the same as it was at the beginning of the season, pro-rated to account for the shorter season. Of course, the money I lose during weeks 1 and 2 is not going to mean I'm more likely to win in week 4.

Either way, following me probably isn't going to be a terrible idea. There is a statistically significant chance I'll lose over a 10-week sample, but I believe I'm more likely to win. I'd counsel playing within your means, however. I've already suffered one 40x downswing, and there might be another on the way. My bankroll is liquid enough to absorb those kinds of losses, but not everyone's is.

No, but you did, right? So even if you're just a break even player, you're going to even out over the course of a season, which means you're going to be an upswing for at least a short span at some point in the year.

I understand that.

I always (mostly) play within my means. The money I'm playing with is of little significance to my overall net worth.

Untrue. If I am a break-even player, then -- on average -- I will end up down for the year EXACTLY what I'm down right now. That is the math.

Poker example:

You play 100K hands, run worse than anyone in history, and book a -5/BB 100 winrate playing LHE. It turns out your TRUE skill level is that of an exactly break-even player. You play 100K more hands under the EXACT same circumstances. All that changes are the cards you receive. After 200K total hands, what will your expected cumulative win-rate be?

Answer: -2.5BB/100 ([100k x -5BB/100 + 100k x 0BB/100]/200k)

This is called "regression to the mean." I ran poorly for 2 weeks. My results are likely to regress to whatever my mean winrate is (likely some positive number), but they won't "make up" for that winrate, or surpass it in the longrun. I will simply regress to the mean.

just bet total corner kicks overs 9 and total yellow cards under. Betting on Soccer matches gave me grey hairs by the age of 25 Iam done with those overseas bastards.l

Tomorrow, Bayer Leverkusen -133.

Wang is exactly right Poppy. This is called the gambler's fallacy. If you flip a coin 10 times, and 10 times in a row it comes up heads, it is still exactly 50% to come up heads on the next flip. Previous outcomes do not have any bearing on future outcomes. So, Wang will still be just as likely to win as if he had gone 20-0 to start the season.

That said, he is probably a long-term winner, so betting with him is a good idea imo. It just has absolutely nothing to do with how he ran to start the season.

Very well.

Bayer Leverkusen up 4-0. Ship. To WIN unit this time.

Bayern Munich -138
West Ham +105
Arsenal -153

I normally wouldn't lay this much in the Arsenal match, but it's on tv right after the West Ham match. It's going to be a great Saturday.

9-3 +5.25x

What channel?

Oh and why did you suddenly revert to a Poppy Hillis with one space and 11 posts. It doesn't appear to be a joke account, so I don't get it.

It's on the Fox Soccer Channel, usually included in extended cable packages.

Well, I opened an account in 05 as Poppy Hillis, but never posted and forgot about it, so when I started to post in 07 I had to put an _. One day I had to log back in and accidentally signed in under the original account, but never really posted. Then recently my battery died on my computer so all the histories reset and I had to sign back in, and accidentally signed in under the original again and am too indifferent to sign back in with the usual one. As Speedz pointed out, I wasted what could have been a good joke account when you realize the orginal was 2 years prior and had no posts. I wouldn't have been able to pull it off anyway.

Haha ok. You did waste a golden joke account btw.

Ouch. 5-2 at home from Bremen. Though the odds must have been tempting I would suggest not betting on domestic games where both sides have qualified for the Champions League. It makes it really hard to pick a winner and is -EV.

Yea, that one prevented me from sweeping the day. Is it a lack of motivation since they already qualified for the Champions League?

Well, I already booked these plays for tomorrow. Big day.

Man City +110
Tottenham -125
Milan -134
Juve -140
Lecce +130
Inter -148
Udinese +113
Almeria -117
Deportivo +102
Valencia -122
Palermo +122
Real Madrid +110

Today 2-1 +.65x
Overall 11-4 +5.9x

Nothing to do with lack of motivation - they haven't qualified for next season's champions league yet! I would just suggest avoiding betting on domestic games between CL sides because they are obviously very close in ability and the games will be hard to call. Of course, if you're a degen, then go for it!

If a team is in the CL they have finished between 1-4 in the league, so we are obviously talking 2 very good sides with neither having a significant edge. If I had to give you advice on games that will most likely cost you money then I'd say avoid the following combinations:

England: Chelsea/Liverpool/Arsenal/Man Utd

Spain: Barcelona/Real Madrid/Villareal/Atletico Madrid/Valencia/Sevilla (Valencia and Sevilla aren't CL sides this year but they can always cause upsets)

Germany: Bayern/Bremen/Schalke maybe Hamburg too.

Italy: Inter/AC/Juve/Roma possibly Fiorentina and Lazio this year (I like Lazio to sneak into the top 4)

France: This is closer. I'd still take Lyon over most but beware games between PSG/Marseille/Auxerre/Lens/Bordeux

I'll have a look at your picks later. I'm about to bust out of a tournament...

Busted KK no good versus QQ, 88 and A6 aipf. Obv, standard.

Fade tournaments IMO. Live side games is where it's at. But yeah, really unlucky, but standard.

Thanks for the insight. I'll keep my eye out for those situations.

I'll take 9-3 all day every day.

8-4 I'll take that all day too.

Tomorrow:

Atalanta -133
Napoli +106

Overall: 19-8 +10x

Today: 2-0

Tomorrow:

Valencia +105
Mallorca -103

Overall: 21-8 +12x

Schalke 04 -114

Today: 2-0
Overall: 23-8 +14x

Saturday:

Aston Villa -153
Barcelona -120
Liverpool +112
Fiorentina -138
Middlesbrough -119
Real Madrid -106

Today: 0-1
Overall: 23-9 +12.8x

Today: 5-1

Tomorrow:

Catania +106
Lecce +110
Roma -157
Udinese -148
Eintracht Frankfurt +103
Almeria -119
Valencia -142

Overall: 28-10 +16.7x

Today: 6-1

Overall: 34-11 +21.7x

Anyone know why all the soccer action is off the board this weekend?

You cleaned out the bookies. They're giving it up.

That's what I was thinking.

Vfl Bochum +102

I too bet quite a lot on soccer. I am by no means a pro but i thought i would share some of my picks as well

For 18th Oct:

Fiorentina to beat Reggina
QPR to beat Nottingham Forrest

So far, YTD = 0-0

Good luck to anyone else havin a punt!

Aston Villa -119
Cologne -109
Chelsea -141
Werder -143

Yesterday: 0-1
Overall: 34-12 +20.7x

Does FOX only show the EPL and Bundesliga?

I like your bets. Friday was unlucky.

dluzion:

Are you getting value from Fiorentina v Reggina? I would have thought Fiorentina would be a lock there.

I've seen them show EPL, Italian, Australian, and Argentine Leagues.

Yea, I've gotten lucky a couple times so it evened out I guess.

LJB723: Yeah there wasnt alot of value with Fiorentina but considering they were pretty much a lock, it was easy money

Picks for today:

NEC to beat Vitesse
AC Milan to beat Sampdoria
Valencia to beat Numancia

The AC and Valencia match dont have alot of value in them but worth while putting them in your multi's

Other games that I am not personally betting on but have a bit of value in them are:

Le Mans to beat Nancy
Hercules to beat Elche (Spain 2nd division)

YTD = 2-0


Unlucky with the Weder beat Poppy, what a game though!

I didn't see it, what happend? Nice day for you.

Genoa -123
Torino -115
Valladolid -116

Yesterday: 2-2 -.5x
Overall: 36-14 +20.2x

3-3. Bremen scored 2 in the last 10 to comeback.