Okay, so some of these lines are ****ing laughable, man. The public reactions to week one are killing me. Initial leans:

Oakland +4 (or whatever it closes at ) at KC

No results yet, but I'm pretty sure KC's going to get like 68% of the action, here. Whatever, I'll take Jamarcus ******* and the points.

New England +1 (or whatever it closes at) at Jets

I don't know if I'll actually be able to play this, but if you'd told me two weeks ago that I'd be giving New England a look in week two, my first thought would have been, "So who gets hurt? Brady and who else? Moss? The entire D-line?"

Miami +7 at Rizo

Pennington actually played okay last week. There was some ugliness in that Miami/NYJ game. I'll probably be leaning Miami every week until they cover. Auto-public fade, here.

Washington -1 vs. New Orleans

I like this game a lot. I don't get it, but I like it. Washington played bad against New York, and New Orleans played well against Tampa. I'll play "Regression to the mean -1 -104 (4x)"

Tampa Bay -9 vs. ATL

If you'd told me two weeks ago that I would be fading Atlanta week 2, my first thought would have been, "So Matt Ryan is John Elway against the Lions." Shocking that everyone really saw that game and thought "ATL is good" and not "OMG Detroit is terrible." Tampa's good, and they lost a "meh" game to New Orleans. I'll lay the points

Cleveland +6 vs. Pitt

Thankfully I passed Cleveland week one. Hopefully their value has dropped enough so that I'm getting a good price here. I don't imagine the books will be giving value on a Pitt team that won by 30+ vs. Houston, and a Browns team that got killed by Dallas. Cleveland sucks, though, so this won't be any fun.


First impressions. I've got a big NCAA card coming up on Thursday-Saturday, so I might be too broke to play these by then.

Take Iowa State and 13-14 points. No way Iowa covers, if they even win outright.

And Tenn's a 34 point favorite over UAB right now, when they couldn't beat Southeast Polk High School by 20.

I'd also take Michigan State to cover 14.5 over Florida Atlantic.

Why?...any reasoning to back this up, just curious. I doubt ill play the game, just tryin to pick your brain.

If I play the Iowa/Iowa State game, it would be ISU. Iowa blew FIU off the field last week, so their side probably has less value than Iowa State's.

I don't like MSU over FAU. If anything, I lean FAU there.

I am considering playing UAB, but I've had my fill of heavy dogs this year, so I don't think I want to sweat a 55-20 outcome this week.

All that being said, none of those games really made my already-oversized list of leans, so I doubt they'll find their way onto my card. My "analysis" (aka, your fade material) can be found in the NCAA wk.3 thread.


I am falling in love with Washington, Tampa, and New England way too easily. I am going to get burned on those games pretty bad. I can actually envision the last two covering, which might be a cue to stay away. No idea how Washington is going to beat New Orleans, so that'll be an 8-banger, methinks.

Just playin devils advocate here, ISU blew Kent St. off the field and FIU is one of the bottom 5 teams in the country....this should be all in the NCAA thread not the NFL...lol..just sayin

Final word: Iowa is getting all the action. Therefore: no play on Iowa no matter what unless you're bad at being a Sports Gambler, or hang out with the Ultimate Cappers down at Beta Theta Pi.

your a fraud mr powerpoker

I agree, if i would play the game i would be on ISU, most like will be a pass though.

um ok

I don't even know what this icon means. Is it a symbol of solidarity? Agreement? Mocking humor?

Whatever, I should get faded for at least the next month.

Early possibilities.

Pats +1
Redskins +1
Seattle -7
Bucs -9
Jags -5.5

No idea what's going on with the Skins game either. I like the Pats line the moment it was posted, and I'm a little iffy on the Jags and Seahawks right now, might change those.

Any opinion on the Phi @ Dal game? Dal laying 7 and the over/under is 47.

I want to bet on Eagles and the under. I'm thinking thats contrarian? But would like opinion.

I love this under, but I don't think there's significant value in either Dallas or Philly. The news has been filled with aural fellatio for Donovan McNabb nonstop since the Eagles blowout and I think that this action should be fairly well split. You should probably get a second opinion though.

Solid week one. I am only down 400 bucks.

Onto week two:

(1 unit = 100 dollars)


Cincy (-1) (2 units)
New Orleans (PK) (1 unit)
Green Bay (-3) (1 unit)
Atlanta (-8.5) (2 units)
Miami (+7) (1 unit)

I don't know who you are, but your list of leans gets the Wang seal of approval. (The Wang seal of approval is just my avatar, except without the mustache disguise that's drawn in on this account.)




That's never a good sign. Be sure to keep that in check.

If you would like opinion, I will give opinion, but first let's check the other opinion:



Pretty solid analysis. McNabb is down to 5-1 to win the MVP at Olympic, which is kinda laughable.

My thoughts, for what they're worth:

The wagerline numbers show Philly getting slightly more than half the action catching 7 at Dallas. Further investigation reveals that number is probably closer to 60-40 in favor of Philly, which is significant for a road dog. Philly blew out a solid Houston team, and Dallas took care of business against a supposedly solid Browns team.

My initial reaction upon seeing the line, before seeing any consensus data, was: "Wow, that's a lot of points. Going to look like too many to most people. Philly's going to get some action there. Gun to my head, I'm leaning Dallas on that number. 7 looks like Iggle bait." I will not be playing Dallas as a side, but the game might still get a play. Nationally televised football games are over magnets. Nobody likes rooting for turnovers, stalled red-zone drives, and punts. I read a study once, years ago, that NFL gamblers prefer significantly playing overs to unders. This effect is, probably, magnified for nationally televised Monday Night Football games, featuring two strong offenses.

The over will get doinked pretty hard, here, so there is probably going to be value in the under.

Wang


EDIT- I should note that I really like this Eagles team. I played the over for their regular season wins for a small amount, as Football Prospectus loves them (like they do every year), and considered playing them as a SuperBowl future, but eventually passed.

They beat St. Louis, and as a Rams fan and the only team I watch and follow every year, they are far from solid. That was the most disgraceful game I've ever seen from them and that's going back to all those ugly years in the 90's. They had no fight and basically gave up by the 2nd half. What I'm trying to say is the Eagles may very well be a great team, but don't put any stock in the team they beat last week.

Yeah, you're right. Pitt smoked Houston. Considering I had Houston, I probably shouldn't have made that mistake. I was even looking at the Houston/Pittsburgh play-by-play earlier today.

Even less of a reason to play Philly. Still can't find a play on Dallas.

I don't know what it means either but I just hope you are correct and win lots of mobnies betting on Washington.

I'm Sam Donaldson! Going against the public is always the best approach to sports betting. I mean just look at people, they're idiots. Btw nice contrarian investing thread, I never knew there was a term for it (apparently the spell check doesn't either), but now I do.

I'm officially removing New England from the leans list. The consensus data is muddled, and everyone I talk to is taking New England.

Thanks for the replies. I guess I'll stay away from the Eagles with those points. Anyo9ne know what a good over/under for sacks in a game is? My roomie and I are betting whenever we can agree on some of the games. He's a Bills fan and I accepted a bet of 5 sacks on the Jags for over/under. 5 is push. I have the under.

Your betting with a friend, you should take all the pushes out of the equation and make it 4.5 or 5.5, a push with a friend results in 0 money or bragging rights for either person.

Good news-Josh Cribbs is probably going to play against the Steelers. It's no secret that I have a huge man crush on JC and I will say that the Browns have very little chance of winning any game with out him. With out him last year, I think the Browns are easily a 7-9 team instead of 10-6. We had not chance against the Cowboys with out him and we have little chance against the Steelers with out him...so hopefully he's going to play.

And don't get me started on Derek Anderson. DA sucks and is the most over-rated/over-paid person in professional sports. Can you imagne his stats last year if JC didn't give the Browns good field position every time or if Braylon Edwards/Kellen Winslow didn't make sweet catches on his bad throws? I know its easy to say that for every QB-that they would suck with out their best players...but can you imagine if Tom Brady was the QB of the Browns last year? 19-0 for sure.

Without a cake schedule last year they would have been a 7-9 team. They should be around that this year being that their schedule is much more difficult than last year.

Without a cake schedule last year they would have been a 7-9 team. They should be around that this year being that their schedule is much more difficult than last year.

Probably...though last year, they probably played one of the best games against the Patriots in the regular season.


Also...does anybody know which Brown's quarterback is the only one to ever beat Ben Roethlisberger?....Joshua mother fuking Cribbs when he was at Kent and Ben was at Miami.

Braylon Edwards had the 2nd most drops in the league last yr. Braylon Edwards had 4 drops last week. Kellen Winslow has played one season of injury free ball. Jamal Lewis has seen much better days. I say give DA a break.

And you know who had the most drops last year? Terrell Owens. You think he's bad? Braylon also broke yardage and TD records last year.
Kellen Winslow was not injured at all last year and broke a bunch of tight end records for the Browns.
And everybody says that Jamal Lewis had a great year last year.

Last week DA only threw one TD-which proves my pointthat he relies on Braylon because Braylon also had a bad game.

no official bets yet but whats sundays card is shaping up to be:

Tenn ML
Tenn under 37.5
Minny ML
Carolina -3
Carolina over 37
NYG -9 (already in earlier this week)
Buff +5.5
SF +8 (already in earlier this week)
SF under 38
Houston -4.5
Pitt under 44.5, although if this line keeps dropping i might drop the game.

maybe a half unit play on both Buff and SF ML's as well. Not sure yet though.

Did you watch the game? DA had a good game, if I were a Browns fan I'd be encouraged by his play, not discouraged. No one showed up to play besides DA, not Winslow, not Braylon, not the D, not J-Lew.

I know TO had the most drops. I think they are good athletes that rob their QBs of lots of yards and more TDs. I don't really see how you can argue against that.

So your WR, TE, and RB all had career years. And your argument is that the QB they had was hurting them? Guess who else had great years last yr, Barber, TO, Crayton, and Witten. And Moss, Welker, Stallworth. Now I'm noty saying DA is Romo or Brady, but I'm sure as hell not about to say that DA is overpaid and undeservedly got his contract.

To your last point. DA had 1td. It wasn't to Braylon. I don't even know what your point is? He didn't throw more TDs and Braylon played like shit? I mean it's not like Braylon had 5 drops!

But I'll leave this thread to sportsbets from now on.

Pats +1
Redskins +1
Tampa -7
Jags -4

Dropped the Seahawks game, just didn't like it . Donaldson out!

It appears I will be able to afford to lose money on this NFL slate. I'm going to be on the following trio tomorrow, barring disaster:

David Garrard -4.5 (4x)
Jason Campbell -1 (4x)
Tavaris Jackson +1 (4x)

Is betting black quarterbacks contrarian?

If I can stomach it, I'm going to try to play DET +3 vs. Green Bay. Depending on what I hear, I might also give Tampa Bay and Brian "The DUI Hunter" Griese a whirl laying 7 against that crappy Falcons team.


Wang

awesome...lol

Just got done checking the weather forecast for some of the games tomorrow. Its supposed to be windy 25+mph winds in cincy, should force both teams to run the ball, the under looks good here sitting at 37.5 between Tenn and Cincy. Tenn is also the better rushing team and has the better defense overall, ill lean toward Tenn +1.

Ill lean towards the vikings and tampa also. The GB DET games me me sick but i would side with DET here also.

Early leans are:


G Bay -3

Wash +1

Jags -4.5

Tenn UNDER 37.5


Dallas game... Im not allowed to play that one. But my Magic 8-Ball says McNabb will be carried off the field.

Tampa Bay -7.0 +104 (4)

Jacksonville -4.5 +108 (4)

Detroit +3.0 -105 (4)

Minnesota +1.0 +101 (6)

Washington -1.0 -101 (3)

Washington -109 (3)

Oakland +3.5 -112 (4)


Okay, so I probably played this card a little too fast and loose. 28x in play on a Sunday afternoon. Yay.





EDIT- THat looks soooo disgusting.

NYG -9
SF +8
Tenn +1
Tenn u 37.5
Min ML
Car -3
Car over 37
Buff +4.5
SF U 38
Pit U 43.5

"Washington -1.0 -101 (3)

Washington -109 (3)"



Hey... because I'm stupid... what does that mean?

Did you get the money line at -101 and again at -109 for 3 units each?


Good luck today!

Are the Rams the worst team in the NFL?

Yes.

I know I'm late, but I got Minn +1 and Wash -1.

4-0-1 Yesterday
3-1 today


Taking my winnings and calling it a weekend.
No plays in the afternoon... just gonna bask in my 7-1-1 and watch tonight.

I split my bet up. 3x on the Wash ML -109, 3x on Wash -1 -101.

If you don't say he is overpaid, I'll say it for you...HE'S OVERPAID. Ask anybody in Cleveland that follows him (besides the dumb asses who write his chekcs) and they will all say it also. We were all happy that the Browns had a great year and we were all ready to jump on the DA wagon, but he really cost us the playoffs with his shitty games in the second half.

And my point about DA's one TD-he only had 1 TD, which is not good, cuz Braylon played like crap. If Braylon would have played well, DA would have had a better game which proves my point that he is only good when his star is good.

Well.... +6 units to you then !

Was a bit skeery for a bit though. What a comeback!


Now I want to play tonights game.

I can get 7 on Cleveland but do I dare?
What really looks good is under 44.

I almost took SD today, and I would be steaming right now. They got f'ed out of a win today.

I had no action on this game but you are correct...they got robbed!

That ref has more experience than most refs too.
If you are unsure...you don't blow the friggin whistle. Let the play go on...check the instant replay after. But blowing the whistle SCREWED the Chargers

I had them in a contest. I have a play for tonight:

Browns +6 EV (2x)
Browns +6.5 -110 (2x)


I don't think I'm pressing. Cleveland got embarrassed last weekend, so their value should be high.

I completely agree! I feel sorry for Norv Turner. I had money on Denver and got a push out of it. I am now a fan of anybody but Denver. How about Denver going for two. Talk about throwing the ref to the wolves!! If the game goes into overtime then the ref could get off a little easier cause San Diego could still win! The way it ended will keep that bad call as the main focus. I know Denver does not care about this, nor should they, but I feel bad for him. I would have rather lost the game in regulation ( making the correct call--- fumble) or lose in ot then have that happen!

What do you guys think about the 2 point try. Would you have done it? I wouldn't have.

Not only that, but the Rivers INT in the 1st quarter that led to the first Den TD should have been overturned but the replay booth wasn't working so they had to go with the call on the field.

Just another example of how football is all luck.

I'm on the under at 43

Yea...so what if I'm an addict.

I played the UNDERS and took Cleveland +7
4x on the Unders
1x on Cle +7




Good luck sir.... I hope you win !

How is Cleveland going to blow this?