he is very loose.

should i break the 9 first draw?

i expected him to bet into me somewhere regardless of if he hit or not. that didn't work so i guess my judgment was off.

but lets say that he will give me a bet somewhere no matter what he ends up holding. am i correct to play possum like this?

PokerStars Game #19182564955: Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/07/28 - 21:52:33 (ET)
Table 'Uppsala III' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: antistuff ($44.65 in chips)
Seat 2: envyunder123 ($17.35 in chips)
Seat 3: Konkistos ($20.75 in chips)
Seat 4: Oldie ($17.45 in chips)
Seat 5: roboski99 ($25.45 in chips)
Seat 6: pastafor1 ($12.35 in chips)
Konkistos: posts small blind $0.25
Oldie: posts big blind $0.50
*** DEALING HANDS ***
Dealt to antistuff [5h 3d 6c 2s 9h]
roboski99: folds
pastafor1: folds
antistuff: raises $0.50 to $1
envyunder123: calls $1
Konkistos: folds
Oldie: folds
*** FIRST DRAW ***
antistuff: stands pat on [5h 3d 6c 2s 9h]
envyunder123: discards 2 cards
antistuff: bets $0.50
envyunder123: calls $0.50
*** SECOND DRAW ***
antistuff: stands pat on [5h 3d 6c 2s 9h]
envyunder123: discards 1 card
antistuff: checks
envyunder123: checks
*** THIRD DRAW ***
antistuff: stands pat on [5h 3d 6c 2s 9h]
envyunder123: discards 1 card
antistuff: checks
envyunder123: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
antistuff: shows [5h 3d 6c 2s 9h] (Lo: 9,6,5,3,2)
envyunder123: mucks hand
antistuff collected $3.60 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $3.75 | Rake $0.15
Seat 1: antistuff showed [5h 3d 6c 2s 9h] and won ($3.60) with Lo: 9,6,5,3,2
Seat 2: envyunder123 (button) mucked [6s 7h 2c 8d 6h]
Seat 3: Konkistos (small blind) folded before the Draw
Seat 4: Oldie (big blind) folded before the Draw
Seat 5: roboski99 folded before the Draw (didn't bet)
Seat 6: pastafor1 folded before the Draw (didn't bet)

Break the 9 predraw, esp out of position.

Bet the second draw.

I was going to ask about this too. Looks very strange that you stand pat and bet the first draw, but check the second. Makes it look like you're not very confident in your hand.

I probably wouldn't break the 9 there because you're heads-up and have the 6 in your hand - that means you leave yourself drawing to only two cards, the 7 and 8. Anything else below that and you blow your hand entirely.

Ops, I'd missed we have a gutshot.

never ever ever ever ever ever ever keep a nine predraw unless you're playing an overly tight player HU.

as played, bet all streets 'cept the river.

Youre 56% to improve or stay the same if you draw 3 times to 11 outs, and you can force the action instead of laying back when you do improve. Sounds like a draw to me. (youre 69% to improve or stay the same with 15 outs to a 9, although I think most of the percentage improvement is actually to rougher hands than an 11 out draw...ie a lot of 15 out draws have that improve/stay the same are 98's and 87's).