Let's try some limit hold'em for a change, whaddya say? In a nine handed ring game you pick up the A 8 in the cutoff seat and raise it up.

All fold to the big blind who defends his blind. Some background on the big blind, he is also a professional player and will defend his blind liberally in this situation as he should.

The flop comes down Qc 8s 6h. Your opponent check raises you on the flop and for this example you decide to call. The turn card comes the 2c and your opponent bets out.

Some more background: You know that your opponent doesn't have to have a pair of queens or better to play his hand this way. He could have a draw, a pair of eights, a pair of siixes, or even a hand like 99.

Since you are unsure what your opponent has you decide that you are going to call him down. What is the best play in this situation?

I'd bet the turn, holding middle pairs means he's going to have to hit his draw if he's playing it so put him on the spot to call to see the river. If he's holding the wired pairs so be it. not only this but you've got the ace kicker which may hit on the river.

Ok now this may be getting ahead of myself a little bit but what do you think of this Daniel. To get a little more information about what the opponents holding I might throw out a weak lead from here try to accomplish

1) If he has complete rubbish or even a bottom pair acheive a basic call or fold

2) if he comes in with a big bet go back and think of his betting pattern to try to work out if he's hit his draw or he's jsut trying to buy the pot.

what do you think .

P.S Just read DN's article about the "weak lead" a few weeks back .

This seems like a typical raise for the free show down sort of situtation. I would guess that if he had a pair of queens that he would have waited till the turn to raise, so I would put him on a six, a draw or a worse ace. If he reraises on the turn, I would re evaluate, and proably fold. The raise can get out a better hand like 99. If you get called and improve on the river, you can get an extra bet that you couldn't have gotten if you'd have just called down. If he has a draw, you made him pay for it... If I had a really good read on him, and on his reaction to my raise, I may value bet on the river, but proably just " checks are good" If was on a draw, and hit, there's a good chance he'd try for the check raise, since you raised the turn, and the checks are good would thrwart this. Call down, and call turn fold river are the worst options. You can't live in fear of top pair in short handed situations against aggressive opponents. If your opponent was a rock, or a tight player, it would be one thing. But what the hell does a flop raise mean from an agressive player? Anything. Mostly, it means that he doesn't think your button raising hand hit that flop... I check raise all the time into pre flop raisers whom i don't think hit the flop, in order to try to take the pot away from them on fourth. This could be precisly what he's doing.

raise his turn bet. if you're going to call a turn and a river bet, why not raise here for the same price (assuming your turn raise scares him into a check on the river which is what you want unless you improve)

if he re-raises, time to fold

Psssst.



Psssst #2 - the BB is leading out :shock:

======================================

Pssssting aside - I agree with BigDMcGee (had to say that as it's such a nice rhyme!)

Go for the free show down. Raise the turn, check the river UI

raise the turn and check the river if you don't improve. easy play.

raising the turn makes the other guy (who is apparently better than anyone i ever play against online :-) ) go back on the defensive. simple as that. if he's got a hand like 99, he's not going to bet the river after you raise the turn like that, if he even calls here. if he's got a draw, he'll give you a call here but probably check the river whether he hits or not. in either case, you've induced a river check.

but why check the river? because you only get called or raised by hands that beat you, except maybe an 8, which isn't very likely here by my read (i like 99-ish or a draw). if the draw missed, he ain't calling. if it hit, he's raising. 99 probably calls a bet but doesn't make a bet. again, the only way a bet works on the river is if he's holding an 8, which i don't like as a read here.

seems pretty simple to me.

I screwed up when I voted (I thought it was a trick question with the "call him down" part), but after re-reading the posting by Daniel, I think the best way to "call him down" is to raise the turn, as it will cost you the same as if you called the turn and called the river, but give you the added bonus of possibly winning the pot on the turn or giving you the free card on the river (providing he doesn't re-raise back at ya). :wink:

Raise the turn, fold to a 3-bet. Check the river if unimproved (as the poll indicates).

I thought about raising the turn and folding to a 3 bet, but I don't like it. He will fold here if he is behind and call or reraise if he is ahead. Why make a worse hand fold? Instead I call the turn, and call the river. If he checks the river I bet. There really isn't much he can be drawing to here, except an inside straight. I think it is most likely that I am ahead, by reraising the turn he folds a weaker hand, but just calling I pay the same amount when I'm behind, and when I'm ahead I get one more bet out of him.

i'm mediocre at best in limit...but apparently my vote is with the majority (but last quiz that majoiry guy was wrong-o)

Actually you need to look at it in broader terms, its not the black and white situations that you are attempting to control, but the 'grayer' ones:

Black and white
If he is way ahead he will raise so raise/check vs call/call is the same as you fold to his raise.

If he is way behind he will fold to a raise and you won't get a bet out of him on the river if you check the turn so r/ck is the same as c/c

Gray
If he is behind with a gutshot or bottom pair etc... he will fold to a raise but if you check you won't get another bet out of him unless he hits so 1 time in 11 for the gutshot or 1 time in 8 for bottom pair r/ck is better than c/c

If he has a very weak queen or say a 99 letting him stay into river costs you the pot unless you improve, whereas raising may get him to fold. In this case r/ck is way better than c/c. He only has to fold 1 time in seven with these holdings for this to be +EV



He won't call the river with a worse hand than middle pair - remember he is a pro, not some party poker fish.



75 & 79 give him a OESD

Any hand with two of 9, T, J, K has at least 6 outs in fact T9, JTand J9 all have 10 clean outs - better than a flush draw

raising here is your last chance to get value for your pair.



There is no extra bet to be gained here

I am sure plenty of people have posted an answer similar to this, but here is my take on it.

The BB is a player capable of playing into you with any pair or no pair. It seems likely that if he had a legitimate check raising hand he would have hit you on the turn and not the flop. This screams weak to me.

I would raise his turn and bet the river. If he reraises me on the turn then I call him down unless I improve and can raise him on the river.

Best Regards,

Cole

easy as cake!

raise the turn for fold equity, if it gets three-bet, muck instantly. otherwise, check-call the river.

if your opponent calls and checks the river, you check through, and this costs the same as calling twice, but you have a chance at making him fold on the turn AND getting in an extra bet if you improve on the river.

aseem

For reasons already stated by others: Raise the turn and check the river if you don't improve. Fold to a reraise on turn.

For reasons already stated by others: Raise the turn and check the river if you don't improve. Fold to a reraise on turn.

For reasons already stated by others: Raise the turn and check the river if you don't improve. Fold to a reraise on turn.

I lay it down. Just thinking back over the hand, your raise pre-flop was called, regardless of whether it was called by the big-blind or not, then on the flop you hit middle pair with A kicker (and runner-runner flush draw) and get check-raised , the turn comes and kills your flush draw, meanwhile your opponent bets in to you with a club draw now on board. He could have a ton of hands that have you beat, a Queen, any pocket pair higher than 8's, 2 clubs, 2 pair, trips. Lay it down ... save your last bet for your next big blind and move on!

I would just call it down.

A lot of people have said raise the turn, but I disagree. I would only raise if I thought there was a good chance I had the best hand or my opponent would fold a better hand. Given by the range of hands that have us beat, I'm not confident we have the best hand here. I also dont think our opponent would fold here unless he has absolutely nothing (not even a draw). If he's on a draw, he probably calls the turn bet, and if he misses he checks/folds on the river (in which case you had him beat anyways). I also dont think we are gaining any fold equity on the river either. If he has anything better than a pair of 8's, I cant see him folding on the river (he might call on the river just to see what we are holding).

If we wanted to gain fold equity, the time to do so was by re-raising the flop. Weakness was shown on our part by just calling the raise. When the 2 hits on the turn, what are we trying to represent by raising? We raised pre-flop and then bet/called the flop. Looking from our opponents perspective, I cant see how the 2 helps us. A turn raise might just confuse him, and his response would probably be to just call it down out of curiosity.

EDIT: I misread the flop play the first time. I corrected it.

if this guy's really a good player, a queen isn't a good read on him for the reasons everyone already noted (starting with daniel). the only real hand you're afraid of is 99, tt, etc, and i'd say that's less likely than a draw. raising the turn and betting the river is without a doubt the right play, since even 99 or tt can't reraise you or bet the river in this situation, and the draw probably checks the river to induce another bet from you. worse hands probably don't call a river bet anyhow, because he'll know that if you bet there you have him beat. the important thing here is that the guy's a good player. against a maniac fish i'd bet the river as well.

i think that the strategy you've posted would indicate a tightness that i would utilize to eat you alive over the course of a long session.

I dont see why the guy couldnt have a Queen. A check raise might be a good play if he has Q with a weak kicker. He might be using the check/raise to see if we had a Q. By just calling, we are indicating we dont have the Q. Of course he might do the same play for same reasons with a pocket pair.

I would think TT or JJ would have 3 bet preflop from the blind, because it's quite easy a late open raiser doesn't have a whole lot, and usually TT/JJ is going to at worst be on the better half of a coin flip. AQ could have 3 bet as well, possibly even QKs if they peg the raiser on a steal.

I think it's fairly safe to say you're ahead in this situation. I think the only legitimate hands that have you beat here are 99, JQ, TQ, maybe 9Q if he'd call it, plus any miracle 2 (66, 88, 8Q, etc). If he had a miracle hand I would have also expected a turn check raise rather than a flop one.

After that, your pair of 8s is going to be the best hand the vast majority of the time, so a raise is good. If he just calls/checks I could even see leading river as being good if no T, J, K, or club hits. If he 3 bets I'd definately have to go into the tank, though I'm not so sure I would fold when getting 9 to 1 on my call (1 big bet apiece pre, 1 apiece flop, 2 apiece + the reraise on turn). You're only dead to a set, I sincerely doubt AQ would 3 bet, and against Q6 or 68 you've got 5 and 6 outs respectively, which is laying correct odds.

Plus, as I believe Dan Harrington said, regardless of the situation you always have to factor in a 10% chance your opponent is bluffing. In a HU aggressive pot between 2 positions notorious for aggressive play, I think it would be very possible to see a bb 3 bet some sort of draw.


Man, I would love to play against your position raise sometime.

Calling the check-raise in no way means you don't have TP beat. If I had KK in that situation I would definately have played it the exact same way up until the turn where I pop it. 3-betting on the flop just gets your chips in danger quicker if you actually are beat, and will likely put most hands in check-call or check-fold mode. If someone check-raises they almost always lead the next turn whether bluffing or not.

In fact, that is all the more reason why raising here could win the pot. Any Q will likely call down but as stated before 99 could easily muck, possibly TT/JJ if they didn't bother to 3 bet it pre-flop.

I'm divided between C and E.
My vote went to E, but the more I think about it, if I have position, I can just check behind.

Just my .02

Didnt read limit

From the way it's played sounds like the turn gave him more outs for his hand. K 6 or something similar is likely for his hand. Raise the turn and if no scare card comes on the river value bet only if you think he'd pay you off with a six.

I chose call down,

The answer is probably raise the turn and check the river because I think this play was in one of DN articles.

I still choose call down though.
The reason I chose call down, is because if you raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet then you don't get a chance to hit a 8 or a A on the river and it costs 2 big bets.

If you just call down, it also costs 2 BB plus you give yourself the chance of improving on the river with a A or an 8, and also you get to showdown your hand if the guy was bluffing.

I was re-reading some of SS2 Limit section last night, and this hand is very similar to one the JH discussed. I must have remembered what she had indicated when I was looking at this one. Pretty sure I got it right, but maybe JH and DN have different views on this situation. :wink:

what all the "call down" voters are missing is the possibility of folding equity on the turn, which is significant enough to make the raise on the turn the right play. the only major difference between raise/check and call/call is the addition of folding equity, since i can't even imagine a hand that he'd be three-betting out of position here based on the action thus far (unless he's wicked tricky). if he's got k6 or so, by calling you're letting him have a cheap river that might bite you. you don't do that.

and the reason you don't bet the river is that the only hands that call or raise you have you beat. the missed draw folds, 99 probably calls, and the hit draw raises. k8 or so would probably call, but i doubt that hand would call a raise on the turn unless it picked up a draw as well...

I voted for raise turn/check river, but the more I think about it, the more I favor raise turn/bet river.

Against hand likes 55, 44, K6, K8, busted draw, etc, hands we have beat, he probably isn't going to call the river bet, so in that sense there isn't much expected gain from betting (although it's possible he'll pay us off). However, with a hand like 99, TT, or JJ there's a chance he may lay it down. Considering there's 8 big bets in the pot when the river hits, we'd only need him to lay down the best hand 1 time in 9 for the river bet to be profitable, which I think is quite reasonable to expect.

Betting the river does open the checkraise, but I can't see what hand someone would checkraise with in this situation. If he has a big hand and does bet out it's almost certain we are going to at least call, which would mean in order for a checkraise to be a profitable play the chances of us betting then calling the checkraise would have to be over 50%, which seems unlikely. I just can't imagine the opponent checkraising here with any hand, including a made straight. If I was in that spot with a made straight I'd bet it out knowing my opponent will at least call and maybe raise.

I think raise/check is a good play, but raise/bet is slightly better.

So, do you leave all your hands up to luck ?... I mean, you've put your opponent on 99, and you raise, knowing that the best that can happen is that he calls you (I'm pretty sure everyone agrees he's not laying 99 down to a raise at this point), what do you do if he re-raises? Re-re-raise I suppose ... why not, you "MIGHT" hit ... better build the pot now just in case. So now you have one card left that you need to hit. Let's go with the odds and say you miss the river, now you check ... he checks and show's you his 9's. Nice Raise!!!! I hope you're playing $2 - $4.

I would agree with your raise if you're confident he's on a draw, but you're putting him on pocket 9's by the sounds of it.

To be honest, the more i think about it, the only way i agree with raising the turn is if you're gonna bet the river also ... and I think this is the correct play. I know I said I would fold earlier, and although it's not the right call most of the time, If I'm not prepaired to bet out on the river after I raise the turn, which I'm not going to do if I don't improve, then I'd fold.

If you are committed to the hand, then you have to raise the turn.

By raising the turn, you will get an extra bet if you improve and will likely save a bet if you dont.

SOmething that wasnt mentioned here but is important is the likelihood of being 3-bet. Will this opponent 3-bet a pair of 7s on the turn or a draw in this situation. Even if he would, he would like need to do this alot to make raising wrong.

Hmmmmm. How exactly are you saving a bet?

Any competent Pro is going to know that is what your Raise is designed to do and Re-Pop you to negate that. Then what? Make it 4 Bets? Where's the saving in that?

All Raising does is cost you the same as a Call and a bet on the River would except that you don't get to see the River card... yet... or maybe ever if he Reraises.

It's very unclear who is best here. You need that River card. Get it as cheaply as possible. Call.

Then play the River according to what comes.

Dunce

you don't put people ON specific hands, you put them on probabilities of hands. if you want the real mathematical analysis, i'd say this:

30% chance he has 99 or tt, etc. 20% chance he folds to a raise. 10% chance he bets river or reraises turn if i raise.

50% chance he has a draw. play is pretty predictable here and raising is obviously the correct play against such a hand. that's why i didn't talk about it as much as 99, etc., which could play out in multiple ways.

10% chance he has a queen or better (raised flop, not turn, etc. and is a good player). pretty much, i lose no matter what i do unless i improve. i might lose 2 or 3 BBs, depending on how i play the hand. but, as i've said above, i REALLY don't like a queen read here. he's raising the flop for info or false aggression, which he doesn't need with top pair against a position raise.

10% chance he has an x8 hand i beat, x6, pocket 7s, or worse. raise makes him go away, probably. he doesn't get a chance to draw out.

in ALL of these situations except for the one in which he has a queen (10% chance by my estimation), the raise is the better play. you might disagree on the probability of hands i've got him on (i might too if i'd been sitting at a table with more specific reads on this guy, but all i've got is this quiz). of course, it's more complicated than i've presented it, which is why it's a quiz question, and even my above analysis leaves out hands that might have been sixes that picked up a turn draw, etc., but i don't have the energy to do those, too. rest assured that against most of them, the raise is the best play there, too.

this is precisely why the raise is the right play. i still think that we probably have the best hand, so a raise gets more money in the pot, which we want. if he reraises, fine. i'll take sixes, a draw, or a lower 8 raising into my better hand all day long. i'd just call it and not cap it, but i would not fold this hand to a reraise.

i voted fold also for the same reasons given here.
however, the majority voted makes sense also
i think it is a matter of style of play, whether you are aggressive or patient.

btw, daniel: thanks for doing this quiz. it made me think about the way i'd read strong opponents in this situation, and, sure enough, realizing that this read shouldn't be a queen, but instead something vulnerable has netted me over 500 bucks just this morning. thanks!

Probably raise/call

unless i thought i can get more out of him by check raising

I'd become a calling station.

If an ace comes on the river, I'm raising.

Otherwise call him down and let him know you will look him up.

This is a simple call it down situation. No need raising and risking extra bets with a mediocre hand. Raising the turn guarantees the same amount of bets from you as calling down, while running the risk of now maybe not seeing his cards.

In limit, very rarely is raising the turn, folding the river accurate, so why run this risk... just call it down. This is a way different game than NL.

I would have to raise on the turn to find out where I stood. I would not want to give the BB a free card on the turn. If BB raises I would probably fold if I felt like BB made his hand.

raise the turn for two good reasons: you see where you are in the hand with the potential to get him to fold, and you also get to have a free showdown if your hand is unimproved on the river, this play helps you maintain control of the hand which is very important even in limit.

Here are some plausible hands your opponent could have and what you would want to do against those hands:

QsTh - fold
Th8d - raise
9c9h - raise, if you think he might fold
Kc6c - raise
9c7c - raise
Th9h - raise
Qd8d - fold
6c6s- fold
5c4c - raise
AcJs - raise
KsTc - raise

Given that you are on the cutoff in a stealing position, a tough opponent may make a play for this pot and bluff or semibluff to defend his blind. And, yes, players might try a (semi)bluff check-raise on the flop against you and follow it up by betting out on the turn. (Calling and automatically folding if you miss the flop is just about the worst possible way to play the big blind against a potential stealer.)

Unless your opponent is the sort who can make a bluff or semibluff reraise, you're probably not going to be three-bet unless you are clearly beat and you can consider folding.

Notice that you really shouldn't call against any of these hands if you knew what you were up against. In no case is your opponent drawing dead, and in only a few cases can your opponent have three or fewer outs. There are many potential scare cards out there that can complete a straight of flush and you are still vulnerable to a lot of overcards. More than half the deck can help at least one plausible hand against you, so you will never know for sure where you stand on the river.

Since calling is not the best option against any individual hand, it is clearly not the best choice overall. Although not every hand listed above is equally likely to occur, it is still probable that raising is a better option than folding, so raising on the turn is probably the best option.

Once you have raised, you may call or fold if three-bet. But the choices don't mention that. So, we decide between raising and checking on the river if you don't improve or raising and betting out on the river. A missed draw is not going to check/call you on the river, but you aren't going to get a hand like a queen with a weak kicker or a pair of nines to fold if they called your raise on the turn, so most of the hands that will call you on the river have you beat. Therefore, you shouldn't bet on the river unless you improve.

I think you definetly raise here, given what you know of the other player. you're hoping to improve on the River, but think that you might be good regardless. If you were thinking that you'd call on the river any way, get the extra bet in here, and possibly get paid off for that extra bet if you improve and he calls on the river.

Otherwise, I'd raise here, and then check on the river if he checks to me. Because any of the hands that might have me beat aren't going away on the river (and may take another bet out of me) and I've already gotten the extra bet out on the turn if he's got a weak hand.

Judging from the Preflop play, I think a higher pocket pair (9's 10's etc) can be ruled out, if he would defend his blind liberally he would have raised with those hands most likely. Considering that he will defend his blind liberally I would be more worried about hands like Q3 Q4 etc considering the check raise on the flop. Although it's hard to tell, alot of players like to wait until the turn to raise in limit like BigD suggested. A flush draw is most likely maybe a draw and 8's or 6's possibly an open ended straight draw. If he has a Queen or a set then I'm just gonna have to lose the pot. I definately wouldnt fold under any circumstances, I could gain alot of information about his play with this hand. With an overcard and a draw out...I would be cautious until I saw the river, because it appears I wont be able to get this guy off the pot no matter what. I would minimize my potential losses with a call on the turn and a call on the river if the draw misses. The reason for not raising the turn is simple...if I raise the turn and the draw hits, I'm 95% sure I'm beat, in which case I'm going to lose 3 bets as opposed to 2 if I call and call. I want information here, but I want it cheap because he could have Q low or even a set, in which case I'm probably beat anyway. He may have pocket 9's 10's or J's (I dobut it, as said above, but it's possible), however being an aggressive player I doubt he would drop them to 1 overcard even if I raise back on the turn. When I called his raise on the flop I told him something important...I dont have top pair. Because it was obvious he would have capped it with me had I chose to raise, and I would have with top pair and a rainbow flop if I had a hand worth raising preflop with, because I would have a decent kicker at least.

I could "get an extra bet out" by raising on the turn, however, "getting out an extra bet" in this situation is foolish IMO, I dont have a strong hand and my opponent could have a better pair, alot of outs or even have me drawing dead with pocket 8's. I firmly believe I will lose this hand more often than win, so I cut my losses and call/call. In this situation the information is what I want, not a big pot. Patience pays in poker, and in this situation its best to be patient and get some information that can help me trap him later when I know I have him beat.

In the end I get the same amount of bets out if I raise check, as opposed to call call, however if I call call I also get information I would not get if I raise check because if I raise check I would fold to a bet on the river if he bet out. Cold calling here cuts my losses and gives me information I want. And if I win, great...if not...I will later .

From what I can see it appears to me that our crafty opponent likely has a club draw and the check-raise on the flop has a little something to do with our position on him and late position would be willing to raise with very little. The bet on the 2c turn leads me to beleive he likely has a flush draw and a pair. The check-raise on the flop is a common play for middle pair holders. If he had a Queen he likely would have checked and bet on the turn his being in the blind also makes this more likely.

I'd have to say raise and check the river if you don't improve.

The flop comes Qc 8s 6h and our professional opponent check raises us now, knowing we were the open preflop raiser . We know that he defends his blinds liberally. Since he checked raised on the flop in attempts to represent the Q's, by making it two bets on top of the other two bets preflop, he has regained control and have you guessing at this point. So we just flat call. At this point, we put our professional player on hands like AQ,KQ, JJ, 99, Qt, Q8, Q6, J9c, J9s, J9h, or even 75 or 79 in which we can consider what hand would he highly check raise with when the flop came.

At this point, we can eliminate hands like J9s, J9h, AQ, KQ. A professional would know the possibilities of two betting an inside straight is dangerous and we can strongly assume it is unlikely. By putting two extra bets against an open preflop raiser, his outs are four to make a 10 of the 28 unseen cards left in the deck, allowing only 7-1 to his drawing odds. Considering the pot odds, its only 5 ½ bets in the middle which is unjustified to make two betting on a hand like J9s, J9h a correct play. Professionals know this is not profitable. Would he do this to himself? However, professionals can pull this move only to gain a cheap, if not free, turn with the intention of slowing down when the turn does not improve him. We have to take into account that he is out position to use this method effectively, so J9s and J9h is out of question. Another factor would be AQ, and KQ. If he held these cards, it is professionally correct to led out and bet, not allowing the open preflop raiser a free card. Would a professional slow play a good hand in order to gamble for extra bets in later rounds? I think not, because 9 ½ bets after the flop (2 for check raising and a call by you) in the middle is too little to gamble for and not to mention that its half of his money invested of the 9 ½ bets. I think he would not risk it for us to improve our hand for free by checking to us. The drawing odds and pot odds, supplemented together, justify that we can correctly eliminate hands like AQ, KQ, J9s, and J9h.

Knowing how much is in the pot and what are his possible hands are left can help us make the right decision. The possible hands we can put him on are pockets no higher than J’s and possibly not lower than 8’s. At this point, we can evaluate what his check raise means. One interpretation can be, that it was a “test bet” to see where he stands in attempt to see if he can identify if we held the Q’s. Another, would be attempts to build a bigger pot on his miracle hand such as top or bottom two pairs, or a set of Q’s or 6’s. We know that our professional opponent will lead out with pair of sixes, queens, or a draw when the turn came 2c. If he held any two pairs or a set, I expected it on the turn where the betting is doubled. He can achieve an even bigger pot. This he did not do, because he led out by betting. What in the world is he trying to do you?

At this moment, I believe that it is correct to raise with the intention of calling his reraise and the river bet. If he does not call you, you take down the pot right at this moment. For this reason being, you do not give a cheap river for him to complete a flush draw or straight draw of 7-1 and 8-1, respectively. The raise on the turn will take control of this and the proceeding round. This also can slow him down on the river when a blank hits, causing a highly possible check on the river in which we can see his hole cards now by just checking back to him. The price you induced to yourself is that you put in another bet in order to get him to fold or to slow him down on the river. The pot would now be 11 ½ bets or 13 ½ bets if he reraises us, which is not bad at all. The extra raise can save us the pot or will let us see our opponents hand for an extra bet instead of an possible extra bet from him on the river. We can safely assume that we are ahead, but I believe this is not the time to get overly aggressive by betting/raising on the river to gain an extra bet. I believe the passive approach in order to see what he is playing with, for the cheapest price, is by far valuable in the long run. Remember that a straight and flush draw gives about 1.8-1 of the 26 unseen cards. I believe that a raise on the turn will cause him to pay to chase.

if he flat calls i gotta put him on a draw here. knowing that im aggressive and could have anything i gotta think hes betting the river with anything. if it doesnt look like an obvious hit to his draw im calling whether i improve or not. I definetly dont have him on a Q at this point.

There is a good possibility that the guy is on a bluff, but then again since he knows that you could be betting/raising with nothing in that spot (he is a pro, so I'm assuming here), he could also have absolutely nothing.

So lets look at our choices on the turn:

Fold: Hmmm, unless you're absolutely sure this guy has you beat then I don't suggest this. If you fold, you're kind of sending the message that you'll be letting yourself be run over, and he'll likely capitalize by putting you into similar situations in the future.

Raise: Ok, if you raise here, you'll call out his bluff, but you won't make any money from a worse hand. He'll probably fold, or call you and fold the river if you bet. Even worse, if he does have a real hand, he'll either 3-bet you, or call you and bet out on the river. Then you'll really be in a jam. The best case scenario, is that he calls you with a worse hand after you raise, and you can check it down. But he is a pro and most likely will put you to a few tough spots here. Bottom line is that if you raise, you'll either be winning little from a hand that you want in with you at the river, or you'll be costing yourself a big bet. A little math. Given that he has you beat, if you raise then you're losing potentially 2 bets (1 raise [2 big bets] on the turn and a river bet [1 big bet]). If you flat call and call again, you'll be losing only 2 bets (1 call on the turn, and 1 call on the river).

Flat call: I like this a lot more, because you're sending the message that you have at least some kind of a hand here. If you raise, you'll be sending that same message but he'll be able to get away from his hand for cheap. If you flat call here, given he is a pro, it will most likely freeze him if he's weak. If he is that weak, and decides to shoot out a bluff on the river you can call him down. If you are beat then then you'll be losing less than if you had raised on the turn. If the call freezes him then he'll most likely check to you on the river and maybe even you could steal the pot from a hand like 99. But I like flat calling here and seeing what he does on the river. A call is likely to freeze a pro here, and saves money when you are beat.

I don't like raising the turn bet. Are you going to make a better hand than yours fold? No.

So how does raising get a showdown at the same price? It can only cost the same or more.