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antistuff
so i have this hand

QUOTE
Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $96.75
UTG+1: $93.50
MP1: $38.80
Hero: $155.30
MP3: $40.50
CO: $80.45
Button: $46.60
SB: $72.10
BB: $12

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP2 with 3 icon_suit_club.gif A icon_suit_diamond.gif K icon_suit_heart.gif T icon_suit_heart.gif
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero raises to $4.5, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: T icon_suit_club.gif 4 icon_suit_club.gif 7 icon_suit_heart.gif ($19.5, 4 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets $12, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $55.5



how do i calculate this?

he calls a certain percent of the time and he folds a certain percent of the time.

the question is will he fold enough to make my shove profitable given that when he calls my equity is probably around 35%?

lets pretend we play this game ten times and he folds half the time.

so five times i win $32.

five other times i put in $29 more (thats all he can call) to win 35% of a will be a $92 pot. <- this is where im stuck

i guess i want to know how to write an equation so that like

e is my equity against the range he calls with
f is how often he folds

i think i grasp this intuitively but i don't actually know how to do the numbers.
uncooper
QUOTE (antistuff @ Saturday, July 19th, 2008, 2:30 AM) *
e is my equity against the range he calls with
f is how often he folds


I think:

p is the size of the pot before the shove
r is the amount you need to risk shoving

Basically you want to break the possible outcomes into percentages and then calculate the value of those outcomes:

- he folds
- he calls, you win
- he calls, you lose

(f * p) is what you win from him folding
(1 - f) * e * (p + 2r) = is what you expect to win from him calling, you win
r is what you lose from him calling, you lose

so the overall expected value of the shove is:

(f * p) + [(1 - f) * e * (p + 2r)] - r = EV

And now, bluffdan or frez or actuary will come in here and find my mistakes icon_biggrin.gif
Killrus
i dunno, I bet you lose that particular hand more often than not.
I_fold08
math is idiotic
antistuff
QUOTE (I_fold08 @ Sunday, July 20th, 2008, 2:52 PM) *
math is idiotic


and your favorite game is stud8?

thats irony!!
copernicus
QUOTE (uncooper @ Saturday, July 19th, 2008, 4:39 PM) *
I think:

p is the size of the pot before the shove
r is the amount you need to risk shoving

Basically you want to break the possible outcomes into percentages and then calculate the value of those outcomes:

- he folds
- he calls, you win
- he calls, you lose

(f * p) is what you win from him folding
(1 - f) * e * (p + 2r) = is what you expect to win from him calling, you win
r is what you lose from him calling, you lose

so the overall expected value of the shove is:

(f * p) + [(1 - f) * e * (p + 2r)] - r = EV

And now, bluffdan or frez or actuary will come in here and find my mistakes icon_biggrin.gif


In the bolded it should be (p+r), you collect p+2r when you win but your profit from the play is only p+r
uncooper
QUOTE (copernicus @ Sunday, July 20th, 2008, 4:05 PM) *
In the bolded it should be (p+r), you collect p+2r when you win but your profit from the play is only p+r


This makes sense.
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