Villain is 22/14/1.9 over 350 hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

MP3 ($276.05)
CO ($310.70)
Button ($200)
SB ($198)
BB ($40)
UTG ($316.05)
UTG+1 ($200)
MP1 ($307.95)
Hero ($466.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with , .
UTG raises to $8, 1 fold, Hero calls $8, 1 fold, CO calls $8, 3 folds.

Flop: ($27) , , (4 players)
UTG bets $25, Hero raises to $75, CO folds, UTG calls $50.

Turn: ($177) (3 players)
UTG bets $170, Hero?

I shovel.

That 5 doesn't hit many of his hands, and even if it did somehow hit him, it's a very strange bet to make.

I think he shows up with spades a lot here, or maybe something like Ad8d. Maybe an overpair turned into a bluff.

I insta-muck. We telegraphed strength on the flop and villain didn't care -- and now he's left almost nothing behind. I don't he's coming after us with one pair on this board.

He's never trying to get VALUE with one pair, but he could easily be bluffing with a one pair hand (or with anything else we beat). Besides, if he has a straight and he's betting for value, unless he is levelling us, it's a terrible bet. If he has As9s here no better hand folds to his bet, and no worse hand (in theory) calls.

By contrast, if he has an overpair or a flush draw, when he bets that much on the turn, all he should get called by is a straight. Which we rarely have.

I mean, against you (because you instamuck), this bet is horrible as anything but a bluff.

Don't we spend most of our time on these forums stressing how awful the general poker player is? I think this is 99 a lot. I think most average joe players will bet their straight (perhaps protecting it from the 2 fd's on board?)

There's no way villain is thinking as deeply as you do simo.

I turbo-muck too.

@OP, don't you have any more specific read other than his stats over 350 hands? that would make it a damn lot easier, and after that time i usually have at least some notes on a player.

here i shove too. the bet on the end makes me either think 99, 9Ts or tilt-bluff with an overpair who is now thinking like "omg you ****ing morons suck out on me all day.. EAT THIS !!!". and most of the time it's the latter i think.

I think this is a straight A LOT and I would just muck. I always say to myself "Why would he full pot donk into me if he basically turned the nuts?" and then I call, find out that he did, and am left asking myself the same question. Then I realized I called his bet with poor odds, drawing slim, and then I get it.

When considering whether or not a villain has made a hand, we need to consider if the villain thinks he can get action from us on his hand if he makes it. Our flop raise tells him he can, so I think it's pretty likely he drew to it. So while I can see villains checking or making a sensible bet on their straight on the flop, I think that most villains are going to bet the turn pretty hard with a straight and two flush draws sitting there and getting heavy action on the flop. I also see a very frustrated set showing up here, too -- something else to consider.

well mtdesmoines saying fold now makes me want to call b/c I normally disagree w/ him.


Here I could definitely see 99 played this way. Just going over the hands that play like this vs. the hands we beat that play like this...painful fold.

ARGAHHA, just realized this is full ring not normal poker. K....he raised utg, and then almost potted the flop.. that's a ka/qa sooted, 99 plus basic line. Flatted instead of shoveled the flop so on that board that's a completely awful flat oop w/ the set imo.

So basically it's 99 or you have him. Does villian love gretzky?

LOL
I understand.

Now do you see why I get amazing action?