Just because a game has 66% action on one side does not mean the books are taking a position. I think you want to look at % wagered but also line movement, and compare advanced statistics to popular ones to identify bias in public perception. Also look at overall public money wagered.

We also don't know what sample size is required to evaluate winrate. Wang posted about this earlier. I suspect that it's at least 1000 bets. If you were betting 1x on every team that had less than 33% action, you probably ran pretty good to basically break even.

What a terrible year to bet contrarian in the NFL

Uncooper, thank you very much. This breaks Wang's theory down very well. The problem I had was indentifying line movement. It requires you to eyeball the lines from 11pm EST the night before up to gametime. I just can't be by the computer that much. I'm not wagering enough to justify it. As for the advanced statisitics, the only one I looked at was a pitchers ERA vs FIP. I'm not sure what else to look for. I would suspect there would be stuff for hitter like batting average and runs scored vs OPS % and %age of runs scored in scoring opportunities or something like that. I dunno. As for hoops, football and hockey, I have no idea what kind of stats you're looking at there to distinguish descrepencies between public perception and reality.

If you have answers for these, I'm all ears......

Well, sir.. you're in luck.


these sites track line movement

http://contests.covers.com/index.aspx?t=0

http://www.vegasinsider.com/

For baseball you can also check the BP-adjusted standings. The public often thinks that good teams are better than they really are, or thinks that bad teams are worse than they really are. This is especially true if they have run far from expectation in one-run games or if a pitcher's BABIP is very far off from .290 (league average).

You don't want to get carried away with this, since our mantra is "It's built into the line," but I think it can help identify value.

but they only show the percentage of people that are betting the line, not the total $ wagered...

also, The chargers line opened at -17 and is at -16.5 now with 77% of the action on them. Bet Raiders now or wait till its closer to game day?

A line moving the wrong way is always a good sign. I doubt it's going to move much further that way though.

want to point out
Miami open at -7. 92% action on them. current line at -6.5

dp

on a 6 unit system, how many do you think is reasonable for the raiders to cover?

ended up putting four units on raiders covering and two on them staying under 41.5... been a good week betting contrarian. +12 units

I have a sports betting question not related to contrianism, but I figured this would be the best place to ask...

I've noticed lately that lines seem to be very different at halftime, than they are before the game starts, like today the Saints were -11.5 before the game started, but the 2nd half line was -3.5 (you would think it would be half or 5.5, no?). This was with them getting the ball to start the 2nd half too.

Similarialy, I noticed the LA Lakers were -11 vs the Mavericks prior to the game starting. At half, the Mavs were up by 7, and the 2nd half line was Lakers -7.

Are these not spots when we should be hammering bets down on the Saints and Mavs? Why do the lines move in weird ways like that?

Simply put, i think it's because half the game has been played. Meaning you can now process that half of game into a new line. The falcons looked pretty strong in that first half. And the fact that NO got the pick 6 TD to make it a two score game..and the book feels Atl still feels they are in this game, so for the final score to be more than 17 points difference is already a lot.

Very dumbed down response, but someone more eloquent could explain.

And I can't believe I'm just seeing this post for the first time. Hot.

Thoughts on Adam Meyer anyone?

great day for contrarians today in the NFL!

+9x for me. 1 more if the Browns represent tomorrow night.

yup!


I knew you were posting your contrarian picks in the sports betting thread... you sneaky basterd!

lol I wouldn't call it sneaky.

Come on Cleveland.... just one touchdown

Interesting week upcoming for contrarians in the NFL. It was getting a little boring (though still profitable) to just bet the Rams, Panthers, and Bucs every week. There is a lot of contrarian value in the current matchups/lines, and on a bunch of teams that most of us probably haven't been backing all year.

came across this site while looking at porn, no lie!

http://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sports-bett...k-spy-insights/

havnt really searched around it much, but i see it has trends from "multiple sportsbooks" which is awesome. has a bunch of handicappers, and betting tools... can one of you guys give this site a review for me? any one familiar with pregame.com?

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/12/lu...ms-week-14.html

St Peters +2.5
Wash St. +2.5
E Wash +15

All these games saw the favorite get all the action, but the lines dropped.

Non-contrarian pick tonight:

San Diego -3

So it seems like the whole world is on dallas's nuts on the road getting a FG today, actually less than at a lot of books now (+2.5).

I liked Minny from the onset, but this game just seems to reek of contrarian value......and you are getting the home team, with AP, Favre, strong lines, etc. etc. Just seems like amazing value.

I don't think there's been value on the Vikings all season. They are ridiculously public.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/w...-hate-the-twins

An interesting article on Dave Cameron believing the Twins are undervalued for the coming season. Some decent discussion in the comments section as well.

MONEY MANAGEMENT--KEY TO BETTING SUCCESS
by Greg Shaker on 05/09/2009 11:57 AM
Money management is something often overlooked and also something that is vital in being successful at sports betting. In fact there are many good handicappers that can pick games at a high rate of return but they fail to actually pocket anything because they don't have clear program to do so. I am going to attempt to sway those of you that are floundering with this most important part of sports wagering. This is something that I posted at pregame.com a while back and thought it was blog-worthy.
BANKROLL
One must have a clearly defined bankroll. A good bankroll is defined as the amount that you have allocated and set aside toward your wagering and not just what you might have in an online book at this very moment. It should be an amount that you can comfortably lose without putting yourself in a bind or changing your lifestyle in a dramatic way. For the sake of this example I am going to pick a bankroll of $5000. Yours might be higher and yours might be lower.
BANKROLL UNIT BET
A bankroll unit bet is simply the amount of money you would wager per bet based on a percentage of your total bankroll. I recommend 1.5% per Unit based on my plays but on average my usual play would be 2 Units or 3%. I will also use that for this exercise. By limiting your average bet size to just 3%, you are in a position to weather any storms that will come your way. Your bankroll is going to flucuate much like the S&P on Wall Street. But the goal is to always see your money make an increase over a period time much like a quality stock will do. My Money Management Plan allows you to do that and also allows you to increase your wagers at safe intervals.
THE PLAN
The Plan is a very simple one. Start will 3% wagers and increase your wagers as your bankroll increases, but do it at safe 20% intervals. This will allow you to get well over and beyond any real possibility of going back to the previous level but will also increase your chances of pocketing more money as your funds grow. I had hoped to build a chart and I will but for now I am just getting the info up as I feel it is very important. Take note that because I am using 3% Bankroll Plays as an example, it would take 6.67 Units won (3% X 6.67 = 20%) to reach the next level. That works out to be about 1.55 Units per week if you set a goal of moving up each level monthly. (1.55 X 4.3 weeks) It is important to note that once you reach a level, you should keep your wagers at that level until you reach the next one, either up or down. Now, for the fun part. Let's see what results would be based on these facts....
BANKROLL UNIT BET UNITS WON
$5,000 150 6.67
$6,000 180 13.34
$7,200 220 20.01
$8,600 260 26.68
$10,300 310 33.35
$12,300 370 40.02
$14,700 440 46.69
$17,600 530 53.36
$21,100 630 60.03
$25,200 760 66.70
$30,200 900 73.37
$36,300 1090 80.04
RESULTS
As you can see, by winning 6.67 Units per month, in one year, your bankroll would increase from just $5000 to over $36,000, yet your overall risk would remain the same, just 3% per wager. By increasing your wagers at pre-determined points and keeping your wagers at a basically even keel, you will be more successful than you have ever been before. Of course, at some point you will want to stop increasing your wagers as you reach your own comfort level. That is when the real fun begins as you start dragging your money of your accounts. At this point, all you need to do is to make sure you are getting good advice on what to bet or have a plan yourself to accomplish that same goal. I have certainly reached my comfort level and you will too if you follow this program. I hope that you choose to do so.

I apologize if this was discussed, but I have an outsider question:

How do we know what the "public" side is? Other than one team being the Leafs, Yankees or Packers, how do we tell?

I would think that most of the simple services that offer betting numbers or trend capture 'sharp' betting as well, but I suppose there is a very good chance they don't. Is the easiest way to just use some very public site, like Yahoo's section as an indication of the public, where sharp and syndicate betting would not be captured?

OR

Does contrarian betting mean we're betting against everyone, sharps and books included?

Go to vegasinsider.com, click on the sport you wish to view, then click on 'match-up'

I would say that the sharps are betting against the public most of the time

*chortle*

aka the Nicky Santoro method

Wang,

Got any thoughts floating about for MLB win total futures this year?

Banner17

"The best O/U bets, according to regressed CHONE: CLE O, SDP O, SFG U." [VegasWatch]

That's assuming the lines are:

Cleveland- 73
San Diego- 71
San Francisco- 83

Edit: It might be worth noting that this is a statistical analysis rather than a contrarian one.

92 percent on Sanfrancisco last night. Boom. 86 percent on the chargers tonight.... and the line moved from -5.5 to -4.5. Massive public betting and the line moves the wrong way? Bet on KC tonight kids, don't get shut out.

God damn it I love being right.

The betting is 85-15 on the packers tonight, and the line hasn't moved since it opened at -3. So kids, we know what that means.

pound the bears +3. Don't get shut out.

I've done pretty well so far this NFL season on contrarian bets. It's amazing how otherwise smart people don't understand the logic here.

Interesting article.

Not really contrarianism since this guy is making his bets immediately after the lines are posted. And causing the lines to move.

link doesn't work for me.

Here's the interesting part of it:

Welcome to the Las Vegas Wynn race and sportsbook, where a man wearing black shoes and white tube socks is almost single-handedly moving college football lines.

The man, who I estimate to be in his mid-50s, has been at the sportsbook all afternoon, waiting for the pointspreads of roughly 45 games to be posted at 3 p.m. local time.

Each Sunday, the Wynn is the first sportsbook to post college football lines. This presents wise guys with a great opportunity to get the best of the number at a time when most bettors are focusing their attention on the NFL.

The man has a Bluetooth headset in his ear and looks more like a guy off “To Catch a Predator” than a local wiseguy, but goodness, he sure seems to know what he’s doing. He has a sheet of paper with numbers all over it and handwritten notes, too.

Minutes after the lines are posted, the man calmly walks up to the betting window and begins barking out his selections, as if he’s ordering a value meal at a Taco Bell drive-thru.

“Give me 347,” the man tells the ticket writer, and that would be Florida -11 against Kentucky. “I’ll also take 331 Bowling Green.”

The man continues to rattle off numbers, one after another, probably four or five in all. As his bets come in, legendary oddsmaker Johnny Avello is standing behind the counter, taking notes.

Over the next 30 minutes, Avello steps away a handful of times, but rarely for long. He adjusts the numbers quickly, knowing that others will likely make the same bets on the same teams if he doesn’t.

After the man places his wagers, he returns to his seat and begins poring over his numbers. Meanwhile, the board to his left begins to change. Florida went from -11 to -12 and Bowling Green, which opened as a 7-point underdog, was now getting only 6 points.

Both lines moved two points within 30 minutes, and by the end of the evening, Florida was a 17.5-point favorite both in Vegas and offshore.

So, using Contrarian theory, 86% of people are betting on The Chargers (-14.5) this week, but the line hasn't moved from 14.5 since it opened. This means we should bet on the Chiefs.. right?

I'm suprised that there aren't more guys like this. You'd think with all the sports fans out there, that there are more people who have researched the ins and outs of all the D1 teams in order to make the optimal picks either for the spreads or the over/unders. Or even just rich guys who have hired a team of people to do make these predictions.

Yea but the site I'm looking at has even more lopsided betting against the Rams.

Can you guys direct me to a site that has accurate numbers on where the public is betting?

Thanks

thespread.com

I'm surprised he isn't being arrested...Vegas sportsbooks have signs posted everywhere that say you're not allowed to use mobile devices for gambling purposes inside the sportsbook.

so they can kick him out, they can't arrest him. There's no law against that.

And it doesn't even say he's using "a mobile device for gambling purposes."

And the whole point of the story was how much value the books put on his information.