Hey, every dime I make today will be 15ish cents at the end of the year...

All the revenue I earn making book goes right onto MB.

Also, one of the reason I wanted to make book was to try to understand the psychology of bookmakers/linesetters a little better.

It's weird that you got heavy action on the Spurs. VI had more than 60% going to the Magic on that game.

As for the Kings game, you definitely got it right that contrarianism is just sickening. I made the bet but it looked like the dumbest thing ever, and was also the first time I've tried betting 2 units on a game (normally always stick with one) because it just looked so contrarian that I had to do it. Then the 2nd half rolls around, Dallas is up by 13, and I fume and give up. I check back a couple hours later to see just how badly I lost, and see a beautiful sight.

I've started to look at contrarianism as like a form of fortune telling of seemingly unlikely events. It's really funny.

i'm curious.. how big of roll do you need to make book, in terms of max bet units ( like, lets say the most you let people bet is 200, how big does your roll need to be?).

I dunno, really. I've never paid out a nickel, though. I set a few grand aside just in case, but I've been in the black from the word "go."

I was going to try and execute some sort of Maggie joke and how she isn't black, but it's probably too soon and would have been mean spirited.

I commend your restraint sir.

I ran into her on campus yesterday, and we had a pretty awesome conversation. I'll post it in the sick thread when I'm back at full strength. I take notes, you know. Stuff like this. Stuff that I know is funny, but I also know I don't think I can find funny enough just yet. So I write little notes to myself -- sometimes on scratch paper, sometimes emails to myself -- because I know damned well there's nothing more important than the joke.

Anyway, that's my way of saying "let it rip, faggot." Unless you just couldn't think of a good enough joke, and this was your way of making the joke without making the joke, in which case just: "faggot."

I have a question about record keeping, on your bets. Right now, I'm just writing down all my bets on a text document in Open office writer.. Each day, I start off with the date. Then I write down each game, recording the spread and which side I have on the game, the amount of the bet in units, the result in units. Then, I talley the result of the day in total units +/-, then I have my total result +/-. And this is working fine, so far.. but I get the feeling once I have a ton of bets in, I'll want some other way to keep track of all of this, and have a handy way of dealing with all the data, so I guess I'm asking for what program you guys use, and how you edit that program ( as I assume it's some sort of spread sheet of some kind)

Excel spreadsheet

You can formulate (?) columns to handle the juice and odds if you do teasers or parlays.

I use an Excel spreadsheet, and have columns for date, side, opponent, line, units wagered, juice, grade, the shop at which the bet was placed (important for MB commissions, etc.), and a running tally of my total results, daily results, monthly results, etc. I have different sheets for every sport, and a general "Balance Sheet" and "Income Statement" sheet to combine them in one place.

I also keep track of how my various-sized plays are doing, and try to keep track of my plays based on wagerline (and other consensus) splits, to see if I'm missing something. I can quickly tally results for things like: "How am I doing fading the Lakers?" or "How am I doing on anti-public favorites?"

I wish I was better at spread sheets, I haven't used a spread sheet since my "intro to computers" class in college.

You can google and find tons of help with formulas.
It's pretty easy... I never had a class on it and I figured out how to do it and we all know how stupid I am.

Wang could just send you his and you could alter some of it to fit what you want.

hey now, don't sell yourself short.. it's not like you're an A&M alumni or something.

Hey...I said I was stupid...not retarded.

Mac:

I don't want to give you my buggy, newer version, but if you want a copy of my old excel spreadsheet, PM me your email address and I'll send it to you.

Hey so Pittsburgh opened at -5 and Baltimore as a road dog is getting 63% of the action, and they moved the line to -6. This is the ideal situation to pound the Steelers right?

I know. It feels dirty though right?

Yeah, I don't think that works with open office. I tried to open it and it didn't work. Thanks anyway, I'll just have to figure it out the old fashioned way.

Oh yeah, still going to bet about half of what I won in soccer earlier this year though. I need at least one big sweat this year, might as well do it now.

So this is probably the biggest weekend of my sports-gambling life*. I have had a pretty big hard-on for Baltimore all year long -- I believe I mentioned that I was playing them to win the division here (a bet that did not cash) and over 6 wins (a bet that did) -- and it probably was throbbing hardest on the morning of September 19th, when the Ravens were 1-0, coming off their bye week, and getting ready to gear up for the overhyped Cleveland Browns. The bookmakers installed them as 1pt home favorites in that game, which convinced me the books might have been overreacting to Baltimore's weird 2007 season. I decided to bang them pretty hard to win the Superbowl and the AFC.

The beat Cleveland, then went on to lose 3 straight. I almost totally gave up on these tickets. Now the question is: do I hedge them out? Or let them ride?




Notice that I liked my position so much that I banged each number at 1146, then when they moved the Superbowl number, I hit it again at 1147 to let them know I wasn't ****ing around.

*- Only because KU and Memphis played on a Monday night, I think.

Yeah, I'd hedge Pittsburgh for the AFC championship bet. But, if the ravens make it through, let that shit ride against the NFC. (Unless they are like 10 point favorites against arizona, then bet that money line).

AZ 2 units

I have a question. There tend to be a bunch of lines that may or may not be deceiving (I don't know, I'm looking for someone to tell me) because they have money going in mostly on one side of the spread for the favorite, but when you look at the moneyline the underdog is getting a pretty good share of the bets.

So if Team A is a favorite at -2, they might have 80% of the money being bet on them, and it looks like that betting against them is smart. But maybe like 65% of the ML bets are going to the underdog. I assume because people that want to bet on the dog are just figuring, "Hey, instead of betting at +2 for a price of -110, I'll just bet the ML and get +110 instead. The increase in payout is easily worth those couple of points."

My questions are:

(1) Is this reasoning flawed? I'm not a math whiz so I'd like to know if that increase in payout in fact is not worth losing those couple points.

(2)Additionally, should I be watching the ML bet tendencies as well when trying to calculate whether betting a spread is smart? If a large portion of people are just betting a ML instead of the spread when their team is a small dog, then wouldn't some of the splits for spreads end up being pretty deceiving, making it look like a much larger percentage of people are jumping on the favorite?

I just bet all the money I have in the world on Pittsburgh -6 thanks to Wang and this thread. Let's go 7.

Keeping my AZ win money...not playing the 2nd game.... rooting for Balt though

This might be a bad time to tell you that the line has moved to -3 at game time..

You would be correct. What happened? Is it because of the chance of snow?

What site said that? None of the ones I check showed the change.

My site went off at 6, I think he said it to scare me. Moot. Thanks Troy, now may Kurt Warner strike you dead in two weeks.

I've not been doing too well on NBA games over the past week. Out of curiosity, is anyone else having problems with their contrarian picks on these games? I'm trying to figure out if I'm just not picking the right games or if it's just a bad streak for contrarianism.

I took the week off. I've been having decent luck betting on OK City, but My other results have been up and down.

I've hit 9 straight Laker games. I generally don't bet on the NBA though. I'd take the Clippers +16.5 tonight, but I'm due to be wrong soon so I'm not confident. I did take a little flier on the Clips ML tonight at 24/1 however. I'm still hoping I lose.

Okay, here we go again. Tonight's bets:

Memphis (+6.5) at Charlotte
Boston at Miami (+6.5)
Dallas at Milwaukee (+1.5)
Cleveland at Portland (+1.5)

These are the four I'm looking at that appear "overwhelming" contrarian tonight. Guess we'll see.

I'm certainly going to be on Portland laying some small chalk, and I grabbed a little piece of Jersey catching 6 yesterday when I saw the line dropped from 6.5, since I was pretty sure it'd get a little lower by tipoff if the sharp money was coming in on Jay-Z. Those both look like guaranteed losers to me.

I might talk myself into laying the points with Jack on the Lakers game, but that might be too sick even for me. I don't know if I can deal with a 6-0 Clippers run to close the game, then having to pray for a meaningless Bloc Euro classless 3-ball to get a cover...

I am definitely passing Miami (no way I'm playing Wade) and Memphis (fading Charlotte isn't what I'm all about).

Good luck.

I was hoping someone would address these questions for me if you have the time.

You seem to apparently be looking at more than just betting trends when deciding on who to bet on. Like the with Lakers game, about two-thirds of the money is going in their favor, yet you are considering taking them anyway. What other factor(s) are you thinking about?

P.S. If you don't feel like sharing "secrets" or anything like that, that's fine. Just trying to figure this stuff out.

Yeah, give me a while though? I've got some thoughts, but I'm really busy right now*, so it might take me some time.



No secrets. If I were really scared of protecting my methods, would I have made this thread in the first place? I'm not playing the Lakers. I didn't look at all the consensus data before making my leans list, and the line looked pretty high for a game on a neutral site. After checking SIA, Carib, vegasinsider etc, it looks like the books aren't going to need the Lakers or anything, so: pass.

I also didn't add on to my smallish early-action NJ play, since it looks like the action's pretty split. I had a feeling it would be good value by tip, and it was, so I scalped it and locked in a small profit with a small chance to hit a side.

Haha, "secrets." I am thinking about things quite a bit, and I'll have a lot of stuff to say soon. I am sincerely hoping some of you guys can add to the discussion. Should I make a new thread or keep it in here?


Wang



*-I am watching old episodes of LOST in preparation for the season premiere.

I would have thought NJ would have been a huge play today. On the road against NO only getting 4.5 with Harris limping in, and I checked Covers and they had 73% of the action on NO. I didn't check line movement though.

Btw, thanks for this thread, without it I definitely would have took Balt on Sunday instead I made the most of I've ever made on an NFL wager. Got lucky in a sense, but I'll take it.

Some of the other consensus data was muddy. I didn't put a ton of time in today, and I'm trying to splash around as little as possible. The edges here have to be small. I had -102 on NJ +6, so when I saw NO-5.5 +109, I figured that overlay was huge enough to make the scalp pretty much my best option, especially considering my decreasing confidence in the play. I've got a 3.5% overlay, plus the chance of it landing on 6 and getting a push/win, so I'll take it.

You're welcome, Poppy. You can put me up in Los Angeles for a few days when I'm stone broke in a few years. Sound good?

It looks like NJ is going to get blown out of the gym. I wish I'd let it ride...

Sure thing. Unless of course I end up losing more money in the future because of this thread, in which case you better not show your wang in my city.

NO -6. I'll keep an eye on it.

Oh absolutely, take your time. I don't expect your life to revolve around answering questions on a forum, I was just hoping that my questions weren't forgotten about. As for your new insights you've been thinking about, I'd definitely add to the discussion if I think I have something to offer. In all likelihood though, if I ever have anything to offer to a discussion it would probably come through a sort of Socratic Method questioning rather than me actually making solid statements.

Making your new comments in this thread or making a new one makes no difference to me. Unless they're like whole new level sort of thoughts, in which case perhaps we'll need "Sports Gambling 301".

Im a little confused. Are wang and TacticalBear the same person?

The mustache had you fooled, did it? Yeah, it fooled me too.

I don't think so?

Wiz +15

Hornets at T-Wolves (+1)
Cavs at Warriors (+7)
Memphis (+6.5) at Knicks

Heads up: The Jazz didn't fly out to Denver until this morning. The line has moved up a point today though.

A repost from another thread I started. I know you're not, traditionally, a fan of parley's wang.. but is my thinking flawed in this hypothetical parley?


So, Kurt warner is 5/2 to be MVP, which I am sure there is no value in... but, at Bodog, you can also bet on...


Warner's Over/under in passing yards being 265.5

and whom the MVP will thank first : God 5/6.


If you can also find a place that has "who will have the most passing yards, Ben or Kurt" parlay Kurt with that..


Because he may not win MVP, but if he does, all the rest of them are mortal locks. Parley and ship the chips

I've been reading through the first few pages of this thread to refresh my memory of all this stuff, and I came across a part where Wang said he makes about .08 units per wager. I was wondering if that number has still held or has perhaps gotten better. Since I'm currently using a site that has -110/-110 juice on spreads, I was curious if it was even possible to win money on such a site at all even if I was making perfect contrarian picks.

Ooh good one, that was easy money.