Ugh, so close with the Portland bet.

Thanks for helping me out. Do the line changes on wagerline simply follow line changes from like sportsbook.com/VI, or does that site adjust their own line changes independently when they feel it fit?

Only two NBA games tonight, and both look like they've got pretty one-sided action so far but the line is moving the wrong way. The line for the BCS game keeps moving in favor of Oklahoma, which makes me think that betting a unit on OU at +4 a couple days ago may have been a mistake.

Thoughts?

I'm honestly not sure, but it almost always matches the most common line at vegasinsider, so I trust it.




ummmm I still think betting is heavy on florida, but with the NC game, I imagine Vegas is risk adverse.. I don't like that I have it locked in at five...


keep one thing in mind, though, moving from 4 to 5 is not that big of deal.. not as big, as, say, moving 3 to 3 1/2, or 6 1/2 to 7 1/2. Basically, the move is from 4 to 41/2, as very few games are actually won by 5 points.

Also, I'm up 20 units since I started betting for cash... I'm afraid people in the sports betting thread are going to quit me.

I just noticed that wagerline had moved their BCS line all the way to +7.5 OU, which is why I was curious about whether they tried to stay with VI or just did their own thing.

WOW! That's the first time I've seen one of their lines so different from the regular lines..... I have no idea how they got that number, TBH.


Makes me with I'd picked florida -4, so I could bet OKA +7.5 and free roll. LOL

Indeed. I wouldn't have cared so much about moving +4 to +5, but a line move that drastic (on any site) makes me a little queasy now. So far that's the only place where the line has done that though.

How many underdogs won outright this bowl season? Seems like a lot.

I know one that didn't.

Quite a few.. the dogs have been doing well in general this bowl season ( at least the games I'm betting)

I think someone has gone nuts over on wagerline. The line just got moved to +14.5 over there.

The line is going insane. Oklahoma was favoured a second ago.

Pinny opened some alternate lines (Florida -7.5 +165, Oklahoma -3 +192, blah blah blah, etc.), and around that time somebody at the Wagerline switch had a little conniption, freaked out, and started putting those lines up as the legit (-105/-105) prices. I think.


I see this thread is still alive. Any of y'all faggots making money? Want to write me a check or give me a place to crash or anything?

I'm up 20 units, since the start of the bowl season, when I started the betting for real.

My position tonight (not my bookmaking position, but my position as a player) is Oklahoma +6.

The line was jumping all over the place, and I've started to think a little about the way the lines move, and what the books are trying to do. I used to, as a rule, pass if the books moved the line with the money, considering it a bad sign. Now I'm not so sure.

In a perfect world, if, say, the Spurs opened as 10 point favorites over the Knicks, the Knicks got all the action, and the line closed at Spurs -11, I'd be on Spurs -10. The only problem is: we don't know that there's going to be reverse line movement until it happens. If there's any value in these lines, it might evaporate if I get down on the Spurs AFTER the line moves. It's confusing, and I'm still not sure how I feel, but I'm not as incredibly wary of spots like the one tonight.

I feel like the books set a price, then decided Florida was going to get hit no matter what, so they tried to get as much value as they could. I took Oklahoma when they were +6 (guessed right, since that was about the peak). The line closed at FLA-4, so now I have no idea if I have any value or not.

I think I'm more likely to have value with Okie +6 -- I could have sold off my position for a profit if I wanted to, after all -- than any Florida position, so I took it. Whatever. I'll have more to say at some point in the future.

I took Ok +4 prematurely a few days ago... still learning.. I should have waited on this big game and got action with it was jumping.. I figured the jump from 4 to 5.5 was essentially a jump to 4.5, as almost no games are won by five, so I dont think the line moves were as dramatic as they looked.

It opened at 3.0, moved all the way up to 6.0 (!), and then back down to 4.0. The moves were incredibly dramatic. They moved it off three and onto six...

god damn it they've left 6 points on the board this half

Well...this game isn't anything like I expected.

wish I had Ok +6

FYP




For what it's worth... I thought it was a solid bet. OU could march down the field 60 yards in 1 minute then they just couldn't put it in.

1st and goal.... they run 4 plays and get ZERO points.

In the red zone with time running down and a chip shot FG.... they run 1 more play ... INT get ZERO points.

FG gets blocked and NO points.

I agree.. i think I got the best of it in that bet, I think that game should have been a pick 'em.

I don't like a single one of these play off games, except maybe a slight lean on philly and a lean on carolina

Wasn't it you a couple pages ago who said that you really liked the Carolina game? I don't really want to go searching for the quote, but I thought it was you.

What's up with VI right now? Betting trends appear to be unavailable.

Edit: Looks fixed.

I did like it a couple days ago.. but now the betting is much, much more even.. .all of the betting is even, really. I think I'm going to stay way from all of the games.

Gonna try to do some actual work today rather than wasting time watching lines too much, so I just made my bets for tonight right now. The lines for nearly all of these games seemed to move in the right way to encourage uneven action. The only game of the five that hasn't seen the line move yet is the Memphis game, but 90% of the action is going against them and it's also the most lop-sided game on wagerline.

Oklahoma City +6.5
Sacramento +4
Memphis +5.5
Atlanta +5
Washington +5

Thoughts on additional games or the ones I've posted?

one thing I caution on the memphis game, is there's very little action on the game, on wagerline or Vegas insider, so thoses stats might be skewed by a small sample size..

Fair enough. I did notice that but I suppose I still figure it will remain pretty lop-sided even though I don't expect it to maintain a 90/10 split.

I bet on the game, if it makes you feel less cautious..

Not really info worth betting against the line on.... but Arizona is like 0-10 in their last 10 trips to the Eastern time zone. They've been outscored something like 210-102 in those games,

I know that's probably 'sucker' information and 10 points is lot to give in any NFL game.... but I thought that was a weird stat.

This Boston @ Cleveland game screams to me a deja-vu of Christmas day of Celtics @ Lakers.

I have a feeling Cleveland is going to win this. Although it looks like a split right now on the spread, I have a feeling the Celtics are going to get pounded as they are getting + money as the underdog on the ML. The line is moving to encourage more bets on the Celts too.

Well, actually, the action is higher on Arizona, and that makes me lean to the favorite.. it makes me queasy to lay 10 points in the playoffs, but there it is..

I've been making all my bets on the spread without looking at ML splits. Do you actually look at the ML to aid in your decision as to whether or not to bet the spread, or are you just mentioning the uneven action on the ML to indicate that there might be value on betting the ML on the Cavs rather than the spread?

I look at the ML action, then I look at the movement in odds for the ML.

I didnt do the reseach for the last 10 games they played but im curious as to what time the games were played on the east coast. If the games were early games (1 PM est.) its much tougher for a west coast team to be ready since it would only be 10 AM out here and there body clocks are all messed up because of the time difference. This is a late game 8:30 est time so it would feel like a normal game time for Arz this week since its only 530 out here. Most west coast teams struggle in early games being played on the east coast, this year though it was very very lopsided. The book i use has this game down to 9.5 and i have 0 opinion on it. I do like Tenn tomorrow though. I might play a total on both games, looking at the under for both but im not sure yet. I'll make up my mind tonight. Only reasoning behind the under in the CAR/Arz game is that i think that Car will run run run, which should eat some clock. Also how much of an impact will Boldin have. If he is not 100% they will double up on Fitz and make Breaston beat them, which is something i dont see happening.

I really don't know what the rest of the country is doing, but I'm pretty sure everyone I have talked to (12) "LOVES" Carolina tonight.

So, going with the theme of the thread, I went the other way. And because I hate money, I went ahead and picked TENN -3 as well.

2x ARIZ +9.5
2x TENN -3


1x Ariz Tenn Ariz (under) :I told you, I hate money:

What does the rest of the country think of the CAR/ARI game?

Out here at my book the line is back to 9.5 after moving to 10 earlier this week. Most of ppl the on my sports betting forum actually like Arz because of the backdoor possibilities. Also, just asking a question here but I would have bought the 1/2 pt to 10. 9.5 is the same as 7 pretty much. Good luck though.

Im with you on Tenn.

For the first time in my life I switched a bet. Ever. And I hope I'll never do it again. I saw that it was going to rain during pre-game and they talked about all the injuries to Tenn so I called my guy and switched both TENN to BAL. This was a horrific idea even though I won.

It's not going to matter on the parlay though, Az is going to cover the over by 9:03 in the 3rd.

And that was a sick sick sick play by LF.
+2x BAL

Nice job on the switch...meh at least my under came in on the Arz game. I swear next year i should strictly bet totals, i wish i had my record in front of me but i have been killing totals all year.

I prob be on the G-men today, maybe the over, gotta recheck the weather and no opinion on the chargers game. Good luck to everyone.

I still can't believe the under came in. Ty Jake Delhomme. I owe you at least 1 of my 10x I was up yesterday.

Today is straight Black and Blue.

BALTIMORE 13, TENN 10






Nice, MisterB.

Some rules, for the unfamiliar, with sportsbetting forums:

1) If you don't get a play posted before gametime, you don't get to brag about it.



That's pretty much it. Just leave those alone, MisterB. Same with all of you. What good does a place like this do if there's no mechanism for ensuring honesty?

Yeah, that's a main reason, I haven't been posting too much.

It didn't really help when people would brag about their bets when not posting them before.

I have zero action on these games.

Me either... can't believe I'm also rooting for the Giants.



*barf

2x Sacramento at +3 against Dallas

Anyone else got this one tonight? Wasn't the biggest fan of any of the other games on at night.

I am a total degenerate, so I've started making a little book on the side (honestly, to support my actual sports-betting habit), and I took very, very heavy Dallas and San Antonio Spurs action tonight.

When I saw the Dallas/Sacto line at DAL-3, I immediately decided to send my clients DAL-3, wait about an hour, then send DAL-2.5. It worked like a charm, and I ended up with a really large Position on Sacramento.

I got ****ing slaughtered on the NFL today. I took three kinds of action in the late game:

1) Pittsburgh -6.5

2) Over 38 (or whatever, I am too lazy to check my spreadsheet)

3) Teaser: SD +12.5, Over 32 (or Teaser SD+12.5, Philly+10)


So that late ****ing Sproles touchdown basically drilled me right in the middle. I was furious until I remembered Sproles scored an overtime TD to kill everyone's INDY+4 teaser last weekend.


What a ****ing disaster. I love when people start teasing shit left and right, but on hectic days like today, it just means I basically have no idea what I need, and I'll end up in a spot where I realize I'm rooting for an outcome that costs me the least. I knew when Sproles scored that late retard TD it was bad, but I had no idea how bad until I fired up Excel. Yuck.

This news doesn't bolster my faith in contrainism much

This is bad advice. If the books could show a profit letting you buy points at 10 or 15 cents apiece, they'd probably not do it. Don't get in the habit of buying onto prettier numbers. If it's not a play at 9.5 -110, it shouldn't be a play at 10.0 -120 or worse. That point just isn't worth it.

If we assume 9.5, we'll cover 9.5 50% of the time and 7 more than 56% of the time. That's not insignificant.

MisterB, what you SHOULD have done is teased that shit. Tease it until it's a lock.