The line has moved up on a majority of the books a full point to encourage more betting against the public. So there isn't a huge advantage to taking Memphis even though the public is backing them. You have to pay attention to the line as well.

There's alot of late money coming in on Florida, so I've decided to take OK +4 for 2 units

The thing about that sight, is it's "consensus" data is based on cash "picks" leagues, as I understand it. It's a good place for me to look at, and see what teams are popular, what games are getting lots of actions on.


It also has a "Public money" page, under the consensus tab, that shows how much money have been wagered on a team over the course of the season, and over the last month. That's an excellent way to see which teams the public likes ( and to know what teams to bet against)


For betting trends, the best site is, like OB said, Vegas insider


http://www.vegasinsider.com/

I love Carolina -10 btw... I've never seen such heavy betting on a dog.

Sorry that apparently I'm incompetent at this. I don't see a link anywhere on the page that leads to displayed betting trends. Do I have to sign up for an account to have access to that?

Edit: Nevermind, I think I figured it out.

Yeah, you're right that I missed that. I bet a unit on Minnesota thinking I was on to something. Bad decision I suppose, but lucky result.

don't feel bad.. it took me like 3 months to figure out how to get to their betting trends pages lol

Pretty good nite

0.5 Unit on stupid parlay LOSE 0.5 Units (close though, lol, if LA would have showed up).
1 Unit on CHI Bulls -9.0 over SAC Kings LOSE 1 Unit

1 Unit on OKC Thunder +2.0 over NY Knicks WIN 1 Unit
1.5 Units on NO Hornets +7.0 over LA Lakers WIN 1.5 Unit
0.5 Units on NO Hornets ML over LA Lakers WIN 1.5 Unit

Net: + 2.5 Units Approx

I didn't post it here either, but I made a Live-in play with the NO Hornets down by 4 at the end of the 3rd quarter, I said they would win outright and had it at 5-1, which was insane, imo. I bet half a unit, and collected an extra 2.5 units on that.

Thank you, thank you. Jumped on this right away.

Put a unit on this before the line moves up even more. It is already at 10.5 on a few books, luckily I got it at better value at -10.

I had 1 unit on the Thunder, T-wolves, and Hornets to beat the spread, and then bet a unit on the UNDER in the Hornets-Lakers game at 196.5 right before the game started because of just how much money was going to the OVER. Unfortunately those guys didn't seem to have any problem blowing past that TOTAL.

I'm pretty happy with getting 3 out of 4 on my first shot at this thing. Looking forward to contributing to this thread more now that I'm giving this thing a try.

Congrats dude, which site do you bet on? I use bowmans. I used to do pinnacle, but I like bowmans a lot more. There's a lot more options.

Also, in the future don't be afraid to say any line trends you might see before, we can all help each other out.

I know wang uses Matchbook, which is actually more of a bet exchange. They take like .5-2 percent vig or something, and you make your bets with other individuals.. they hold all the money, and take care of all the payments. It sounds like a great deal. I'm not really to play against the vig yet, but when I do, I'm going to check this place out.

I'm using betED.com. I really didn't do any real research on which sites are best, which is admittedly a mistake. Is the standard juice smaller on bowmans or pinnacle than the typical -110/+110?

I'm confused by this statement. Don't you already pay vig on your bets anyway? Wouldn't .5-2 percent be a really small vig compared to what you have to pay when you bet against a sportsbook?

To be honest, I really have no idea. I'm sure the difference isn't too huge between the two.

BigMCDee probably has the best site in matchbook.com, since that has probably something really close to -101/+101.

I'm just a fan of bowman's over the other websites, because it's easy to deposit in and out, and also the amount of silly side wagers and live in plays is fun as well.

lol I don't play against sport books, I make vigless bets with RL friends, people I know from poker rooms, and people from this forum.

BigMcDee? Who da fck is that? Sounds like a douche to me.

lol I'm sorry, I'm the douche.

I jumped on a huge line I saw already. 74% of the public backing Miami against Denver tommorow. Denver opened as a -5.0 favourite, and everyone is pounding the underdog Heat. My guess is because, they've been posting that Melo is out all over ESPN and everywhere. The public is blowing this way
out of proportion IMO, line has already moved to -5.5 for Denver. I'm jumped on it early because I think by tommorow mid afternoon, the line will be at 7. And I don't really want to lay that much chalk.

2 Unit Bet on Denver -5.5 against Miami

Ah, the confusion is now over.



LOL, looks like the site I just signed up with hasn't even put out the lines yet for the NBA tomorrow. If the delay is typical of this site, I may be moving somewhere else pretty quick.

Thoughts on Eagles/Giants?

59% backing the Giants on the spread, yet the line just moved from -5.0 to -4.5.

pass unless the betting on the giants gets heavier..

Anyone looking at Charlotte at +14 tonight against Cleveland? Looks like about 61% going in on the Cavs with that consensus site listing the Cavs as the the most bet on NBA team during the last 30 days while Charlotte is like 20th. Other games that look potentially good are Golden State at +8 and Phoenix at -8.5.

I'm not ready to jump on Charlotte yet, because the line at Pinnacle just moved from -13.5 to -14, so I don't think there's a huge edge in taking Charlotte yet, despite the heavy backing by the public. If the line stayed the same or moved the opposite way, I would jump on it right away.

Golden State is a maybe. A few of the books have moved the line from -7.5 to -8, but then some books have stayed pat. I'm going to wait a little bit longer to see how this goes.

Phoenix game I like! Thank you for spotting that, I didn't notice it before. I always love it when the public backs a road underdog. Makes me feel better for taking the home favourite The line did move our way in that game. I'd suggest getting on this bet immediately before it gets too high.

The only other game I have so far is Denver -5.5 against Miami.

Wow, Phoenix game has already moved the line to -9.5 on my site in that short time. Golden State game has also moved to +9, so that one's probably out I guess.

So far I've just gone with Nuggets at -5.5 and Charlotte at +14 (yeah, might not be a good one).

My bets for tonite:

0.5 Unit Montreal Canadiens ML
1 Unit Phoenix Suns -9.5
2 Units Denver Nuggets -5.5

I also love golden state +9 over LAL

Isn't the line moving the wrong way though for that game?

yeah, but just one point and 82 percent of the action are on the Lakers.. LA is pretty much the definition of a public side, and betting against LA and the Celtics will rarely be the wrong play

Makes sense, I forgot to take into account that the bookies likely have it short a point of what it actually should be, because they know the public loves the Lakers.

If I bet on the NBA I would pound GS tonight, and also take a shot on the ML at 4-1.

Anyone like Blazers at -3? Seems like over 90% of the action is landing in favor of Detroit, who've won 7 straight. The line does indeed seem to have moved in the wrong way though, as it opened at -4. Any thoughts?

Oh yeah, and just looking at what I've seen last night and this night (I realize a small sample), it looks like there are a large number of games where over 75% of the action is often bet on the OVER for TOTALs. Yet, none of you mention that you are betting on the UNDERs for these. Is there a reason for this?

Yeah there is a ton of action on the Pistons, I'm making a stupid parlay. I just really like all 4 home bets.

1 PHX Suns -9.5 @ 1.90
2 DEN Nuggets -5.5 @ 1.90
3 POR TBlazers -2.0 @ 1.90
4 GS Warriors +9.0 @ 1.9
Betting 1 Unit to win approx. 13 units

Yes, the public usually always bets favourites and the over.

I just don't bet the under as a personal preference, just because I find it hard to cheer for a team and bet the under, lol.

Parlay? tsk Tsk tsk.. There went all your edge...

lol I know. I just make one a nite.

Loving the line even better now though that Boldin likely won't play!!!

What do you mean by "consensus" data? Consensus from where? And what are "picks" leagues exactly? I'm somewhat confused why the data found at wagerline.com is so different from Vegas Insider.

LOL, Suns do something

So, Covers is a sports gambling website, that talks about spreads, and betting trend movements, and deals with all kinds of wagering issues. One of their sub-sections is "wagerline", a competitive picks league. I'm not exactly sure if you have to pay for it or not, because I've never signed up. But I do know it's competitive, with real cash prizes for who gets the most pick right...


This page
http://www.wagerline.com/Handicapping/cons...ks.aspx?sport=9

Shows how many people are picking one side, or the other.... take, for example, the memphis/jersey game..

7:30 PM Memphis +4.5 363 30.66% New Jersey -4.5 821 69.34% View View

So 363 people picked Memphis, and 821 picked jersey ( against the spread). It also shows what percentage of over all pickers picked one side or another... I use this site, to take a read of what people are picking, what they think of the games.... when a game is 60 percent on one side, or another, I like the game, and I like going against the 60 percent team. If the game is more that 65 percent on a team, I love the other team. If it is 70 percent or more, I jizz myself and drop multiple units on the other side. does this make sense? What I do, every day, is go to that site, wager line, take a glance at the games... see what games are in the 60 percent range.. then I go to vegasinsider, to take a closer look at wagering trends...


It's just a way to gauge what sides are publically popular.

Yeah, I was just curious why the percentages were so different, but I guess it's because wagerline is the percentages of the picks league and vegas insider shows the percentages of everybody. Where I felt conflict was games where on wagerline the betting was about even on a game but on vegasinsider, the game looks extremely one-sided (or maybe vice versa). I don't know what to do in those situations.

Seriously, for the time being I'm pretty psyched that I didn't place a bet on this one.

Well, here's what I do.. I generally will trust Vegas insider's data, as it is actual money wagered at sportsbook.com But If i'm in doubt, I'll do something like check wagerline's "public money" data, to see how much money is being bet on a team, over the course of a season..

http://www.wagerline.com/handicapping/publ...ublicmoney.html

Ugh, wish I bet the ML on the Houston/Celtics game.

Why? VI had 59% of ML betting going to Houston. Or are you just saying that in passing now that the game is over?

Yea, lol.

If this game goes into overtime, I have a chance, lol.

ugh are you kidding me???

Glad I didn't get action on the suns game..... I'm running hot even in the games I don't get action on.

Oh well I won my big bet on the Nuggets.

Made a half unit bet on the Golden State to win ML in a Live-play when they were down 12.

Got it at 7-1.