bad news for my 4 unit bet. I don't know what to make of the Cardinal's game, I'm staying away. Something advanced is going on that I'd need wang's advice on, I think.

yea, this Atlanta/Arizona game is the one I don't understand at all.

OMFG, that flea flicker pass was amazing. go Cardinals go!!

Falcons WR just dropped a 36 yard pass...bahahahaha

where you are getting your numbers from? I was at the book this morning and texas is only -8.5 and miami is +3.5 tomorrow.

My bad... I looked at the OPEN

Caesars has it at 8.5

ugh, what a stupid face mask.

Oh jesus. I won 4 units on the chargers, but I think I lost a year of life..

Talked to my book today, and he told me that 99% of people were on board with the colts.

If that isn't the definition of a "contrarian" bet, I'm going to have to re-read all 7 pages. Not happy about that.

I know.. I thought I was being insane taking the Chargers, but I the book I have data from had something like 89 percent on the Colts on game day, which is down right sick.

Go MIAMI !

this

Chad is killing me

I have the fish too, come on plz

hard to cover when you throw 4 picks. Jesus christ, he's the most accurate passer in the league, what a bad beat. I love Baltimore as a super bowl pick after this game.

blocked extra point, are you fucking with me!!?!?!?!? now a touch down doesn't let me back door cover. fck me in the ass, just when I was getting some hope. Hopefully if they get another touchdown, they'll go for two (and make it), since being down 4 or 5 doesn't matter to anyone.

True dat.... their defense is awesome

70 yard drive coming up for a touchdown plus the two points

Lets get back on track boys.

Minny +3

Actually, Ted Guinn will muff a handoff and end my day. God this game tilts me. Inspite of the score being 27-9, I still think I got the best of it in this game. If Peddington doesn't have 4 turnovers, and has, say, 1, I think Miami covers. Baltimore's offense looked putrid, mostly.

oh well, my heater was bound to end sometime.

Not a good day

Only had 1 play yesterday (Balt) so ill take the 2 units and put it on TX tonight. I really dont understand the love OSU. Everytime they play a quality team they get embarresed, and i really dont feel this will be any different. There D better play like Baltimore did yesterday for them to have a shot at covering this number. OSU does have a solid running game but TX was 2nd in the country in TRUE defensive rushing yards allowed. I think that OSU thrives against teams that have sub-par defensives and slow offenses so thier solid D can dominate inferior opponents. TX has a very good D and a fast moving offense. I dont think there will be a lot of pts scored in this game however and the under is worth a look. I really dont see OSU putting up more than 17 pts tonight unless its a special teams or defensive TD, there offense is simply not good enough to keep pace with TX. Good luck to everyone. Hook em horns

if by "OSU Love" you mean "80 percent of the betting is on Texas"

2 units on Ohio St. +8.5
1 unit on Ohio St. ML

Common boys, lets do it.

You gonna lose



Texas by 17

want to bet? $10, pokerstars or full tilt? obv since you're confident, i'll take OSU+17

No
I have a rule against betting on my alma mater.


However... for funsies... I'll go 10 on PS with you heads up.

yeah, giving away 8.5 points seems like a blast for me..

and.. I'm pretty sure you've bet on Texas earlier this season..


speaking of fun, 6-3 halftime is great for us OSU and under 51.5 bettors..

ship to onelessdonk (toledo) holly, gg, congrats

Noticed early on the San Diego Pittsburgh game.

62% of the public is backing San Diego on the spread.

It opened at -6.5 for Pittsburgh, and now -6.0.

Any thoughts? Or still too early?

my thoughts are, if the public is backing San Diego at 62 percent, I'm going to pound the fck out of pittsburgh.

Wow.... just wow!
Congrats on your win BigD

Congrats on my HORNS WIN ! !

One of the best games I've watched in a while.
Not so good for my Ohio State buddy



Ship it?

Yeah my thoughts were to pound Pittsburgh too. My thoughts are though, is it still too early to bet on that? Like do you think the public might change their vote?

oh, I'm definitely waiting..

I've never agreed with you more



Congrats, Hollywood, you finally posted something that made me laugh.

I have arrived here, thanks to BigdMcgee and Ottawa Biatch who recruited me..

When i get a chance later tonight I will read this thread from the beginning....I am now a follower...

Any thoughts on the BCS Championship Game yet?

I noticed a huge chunk of the public is betting Florida on the spread, although the bookies are moving the line about a point and a half to encourage betting for Oklahoma. So it looks like a game we just don't touch?

I was just wondering if you guys wanted to help each other out though and post when you start seeing the reverse line trends.

Right now in the NBA, the big one I see today early is the Knicks @ Thunder. Both sports.com and the vegasinsider.com have 95% of the public backing the Knicks on the spread, and 100% of the public backing the Knicks on the ML. The line hasn't moved though from -2 yet across all Vegas and Offshore Lines. I'm jumping on this now, incase I think the Thunder might get favoured in this one. Betting 1 unit on the Thunder +2.

The other one I might be touching too is the New Orleans/Lakers game, but still waiting for just a bit more information.

Thoughts and comments appreciated!

I'm not playing this game because I want Florida to win more than I think Oklahoma will win.
(did that make sense?)

I hate OU so much that I could never bet on them.

I don't like it, because at my picks site

http://www.wagerline.com/Handicapping/cons...p;select_type=0

the picking is extremely even on both sides I'm going to watch the betting, however... there might be late action on the big 12, after how awful it's done against the spread this year.

Thanks dudes. That's what I thought.

Any thoughts on the NBA games tonight?

Bets tonight.

1 Unit on OKC Thunder +2.0 over NY Knicks
1 Unit on CHI Bulls -9.0 over SAC Kings
1.5 Units on NO Hornets +7.0 over LA Lakers
0.5 Units on NO Hornets ML over LA Lakers

I've seen you post this question before and I think there's a small concept you're missing. Even if the bookies aren't taking a side in a game, it doesn't mean that there is no edge. The bookies know pretty well what the "optimal line" on a game should be and they also know the amount of action on each side. So if they are deviating from that line, there is an edge on the side from which they deviated. So as a contrarian, it's important not only to be in tune with what the final betting splits are, but the progression of those splits, the reaction of the bookies, and the public perceptions of each team.


So in this game, since the early action is on Florida and the line is moving to favor betting on Oklahoma, there will be a small edge on Oklahoma based off of the bookies idea of the optimal line. And that idea is what we, as contrarians, put our faith in. And the public perception is unreasonably high on Florida and that is the perception that we aim to bet against.


This edge is smaller than a spot where the bookies are taking a clear preference, but often in these big games with heavy action they will take a more variance averse line and simply balance action. But anyway, in this spot, I like Oklahoma.

I have those same to games also. I also have LAC+12.5 over Dallas ( Dallas is a top 6 bet on team, LAC is a bottom 3). The betting isn't as heavy as I'd hoped on Dallas, but I have a good friend of mine, who's also a sucker, whom I want to keep happy, so I'm giving him action on this game. I still like LAC, but I don't love them or anything


The other games I like are
Houston +3.5 over Philly
Charlotte +9.5 over boston

Clippers/Dallas under 183.5

but I haven't got any action on them yet. I'm still small time, and as I'm learning, I'm restricting my bets with other forum members or RL friends, to remove the vig. Once I'm confident in this system ( and have a nicish BR built up) I'm going to start booking my bets with an online book, probably that bet exchange place.

Thanks dude, very interesting.

I don't know about the Boston game yet. The line started at 8, I think and has now moved to 9.5, so I'm not too strong on it. The Clippers game looks good too though, but I just don't think it's heavy enough yet.

Hey, I'm a little confused about this site. Does this site combine info from the "top 20 sportsbooks" that it lists at the top of the page or is the information about the betting coming from just the one site?

Edit: I finally broke down and opted to make a deposit to try out this contrarian thing. Can someone post links to good reliable sites that show the betting trends? Is the one above the best there is? I'm sure there are links in occasional posts along these 8 pages, but I'd rather not look through them all if someone just happens to know of a few good ones offhand.

Oh yeah, and looking through the NBA picks you guys made tonight I didn't see anyone betting on Minnesota at +4 against Memphis even though more than 2/3 action seems to be going in on the latter. Am I missing something?

Just made a silly bet bc I wanted some action on the late games.

0.5 unit parlay on
LA Kings ML over Anaheim
Calgary ML over San Jose
NO Hornets ML over LA Lakers
odds (10.3)

Best website IMO is

http://www.vegasinsider.com/