I think I beat you this week... It finally happened... I went 0-fer.

I knew it was coming... it always does.

0-fer in NCAA

0-fer in NFL.

Thought the Vikings were going to help me out but Noooooooooooooo.

Sport Handicapping legend dies.


Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal

and I hope that rat burns in hell.

Ahhhhwwwww.... that's sad

Just curious, Wang.. who's looking like the early favorite to be your "Tampa bay Rays" of next year.. a team that you love going into the season that no one's going to believe it's good till it's too late.

i was under the impression that bookies never have a rooting intrest...i thought their sole purpose was to balance the action and suck the juice, and i never believed in "trap lines" or anything like that...after reading this thread i started thinking about it and im having 2nd thoughts now...

yesterday, i did a 2 team parlay...lakers -5 1/2 and titans -3....530$ to win 1,550$

i told myself, "omg easiest game ever"...i thought lakers were gonna blow them out...turns out i was completely wrong and ended up getting extremely lucky with a back-door cover...

i had the exact same thoughts about the titans...and not just me...everyone i know and their mothers are pounding titans...well, the line opened at -3 and its yet to move??? and whats scary is that its not "just -3" its -3 (+105)

so all mighty wang, did i get suckered? does jax have good value? whats your opinion on this game?

thx

yeah, that was my impression too. But then, I started looking at some of the statistics, on the betting lines and stuff.. and when like 65-70 percent of people are betting on one side, and the line doesn't move. Something has to be going on. It's not like the bookies don't know which way the bets are going, or anything. They know people really like one side.. but they still aren't moving the line.. There can't be any other explanation than the bookies think they have an edge.

ya, makes total sense... which means im gonna have to suck out to hit my parlay.

Ive been betting and following sports for years now. I believe I finally have it figured out. Futures bets are where u make your money. Only thing is, u gotta wager big to make it worth while to wait on your pay day. Mostly I look for season o/u W totals, but also some division wins, some title wins, and also some special stuff like r.o.y.

On any given day, any team can win. The ref can make a terrible call. The ball can bounce a funny way. Certain players can suffer in-game injuries greatly changing the game. A player could have a big argument with their wife 2hours before gametime and affect his play. The weather can change and affect the outcome.

Over the course of an entire season, these luck fuctors are greatly reduced by taking bets on the whole season. Plus, for the true action junky, these future bets give u action everyday, even sometimes sweating other teams in your division bets.

Right now, on superbook.com , they still have updated nba r.o.y. bets and OJ mayo is +350. Love it.
Two weeks ago, they had Eli Manning to win MVP at 15-1. Love it.

Look at how easy these futures are:
After week four of the season, the Gmen were still 4-1 to win their division!
After one month of the season, the d-rays were 4.5-1 to win their division!
Ryan Howard lead the league in hrs 4-1.
In the nba, the atlanta hawks opened at 9-1 to win their division
Atlanta hawks o/u win total was 38.5
Lakers o/u win total was 54.5
The Gmen win total was 9
The Tennessee Titans o/u W total was 8. They were also 8-1 to win their division.
The bengals o/u w total was 6.5.

Already for the next nfl season, with brady quinn playing the whole year, im loving the browns to go over and possibly win the division(assuming they dont trade kellen winslow)

Sean hill looks to be a legitimate thrower, and they got some up and coming recievers too, and Singletary appears to be changing the culture of that team. Niners should be a great over bet next year.

Houston Texans lost some crazy whacky games this year, mario williams is legit, and shaub has been injured for 4plus games, they should go over next year too.



Someone asked for the tampa team of next year? Try the marlins.

Yeah, your ex post facto analysis is spot on. I am going to be on the Jaguars pretty heavy come Sunday. Good luck, though. I've been an auto-fade all year in the NFL, though.

Reverse line movement now....

Cliffnotes on this game:

Line opens up online @ ten -3 +105
Line opens up in vegas @ pk
line in vegas suddenly jumps to -2.5 same day
77% of people jump on ten -3
Reverse line movement to ten -1
Vatche can't hedge cuz he's obviously gonna get middled
Greek takes the game off the board
Vatche gets fukrd out of 500
Wang enjoys his EZ money if he can still find jax at +3




edit...greeks got the game back up...still at -3 but it changed to +110...i think im gonna hedge even tho ive never hedged before...ive never seen the bookies love 1 side so much.

Well, I'm prepared to enter my first foray into contrarian wagering with the thanksgiving day games, I imagine those get as much dumb public action as any non playoff game.

My picks are Seattle +13, philly -2.5 and Detroit +11, and I've offered up those wagers in the challenge thread, we'll see if anyone bites.

I didn't see who had all the action, but I think the Wizards last night against GS would have been a strong contrarian play.

I tried to get someone to wager on that game with me in gen pop, but I only have stars and UB money, and a closed FTP account (which I closed in a game of chicken over rakeback). That game SCREAMED contrarian, and like 70 percent of the money was on GS. I think the NBA could have outstanding contrarian wagering opportunities.

That's how I played it

It was a 5x game for me. I mostly have 3x plays in the NBA, about 1 4x play a day, and 1 5x play ever few days.

Minnesota and the Clippers are both 4x plays for me tonight. Might try to add a unit on one or both if the late info looks good.

There's one tonight, that's screaming contrarian. 63% of money is on Orlando as a road underdog. Phila -5? Is Howard and Rashard Lewis out or something?

This game would be a dream if you're sitting at 24 on that ESPN streak thing. Take Philly for the streak and hedge w/ Orlando +5. You get 4 free points to scoop the whole thing.

What exactly do you bet 1 unit on, anyway?

Good eye...thanks. I'm gonna look at that one too.

God Philly is so bad and so boring. Their point guard and go-to guy are both halfcourt players, but everyone else is an up-tempo guy. I don't know how they ever win games, let alone give 5 points to the 3rd best team in their conference. I think Vegas put this game up to throw contrarians off.

Edit: The Sixers should never be on natl TV ever again this season.

These NFL games make me wish I had a slave to whip. Knowing I am on the "smart" side is of no comfort when the teams i bet on get blown the every loving fck out. I mean, it's not even close, there's no sweat even, just pain. Fck gambling in the ear.

Easy money made on the NFL today.... easy money ! ! !



WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTT ! ! !

Well, I got murdered in my first weekend experiment into contrarianism. But there still is hope, if you want to call it that, and it's called "Cleveland +5.5" Yeah, i'll be banging that for 4 units, then shooting myself by halftime.

I'm not touching this game but I dont mind the browns here in this situation. The colts have been the most fortunate 7-4 club ever this year. They are expecting rain and winds around 15MPH which could limit the colts passing attack somewhat. If the browns play this game conservatively which they should do they could hang around and get not only a backdoor cover but an outright win. Then again your bettin on romeo cornell...lol.

I had 4 units at +5, and Indy won by 4.. I can't take this sht, but I'll take it. gut wrenching.

Took Giants -3 for 4 units and Pats -1 for 2 units



This has been the most profitable season ever.

I like this sentence.

Can you change your sig, every time I see her, I fall a little bit more in love. And it's a him so I don't think it's good.

Hurts so good... come on baby make it hurt so good.. some times love, don't feel like it should..

LOL @ my face. Anybody who picked this particular time to start playing anti-public sides is probably cursing my name right now. I'm keeping my head above water, but only by dumb luck. I'm a little tilty right now, so I'm randomly passing without legitimate cause games I should be playing. Miraculously, my retarded passes are keeping me sane (and my bankroll fullish).

The NBA is going to kill me all year. NCAAB and NCAAF are the only games I can beat right now.

I would be cursing your name if I hadn't 4x units on cleveland.

I got nothing on NBA this year

If you can ever get the Lakers in the 2nd half at -6 or less, take it.

Phil Jackson's teams are well known to turn it up in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

If they're destroying the other team in the 1st half, I generally won't bet on them for the 2nd. Only because there's a chance they might rest the starters.

Screw contrarianism. I think if I didn't not bet on Laker games, I could pick sides and totals at like an 80% clip.

Yeah, they got screwed in the Pacers game, but recovered nicely tonight.

I would also think that betting the over in any Knicks game, and the under in any Spurs game can be good bets.

I think you need to read the rest of this thread.

Bah, I don't wanna.

So what is the contrarian approach to this weeks SEC title game considering the the #1 team in the country is such an underdog.

All I know is that taking the Gators at -10 is a steal.

Lay the points.

My bets for tonight:

Chargers (-9) 1 unit

Louisville / Rutgers (ov 51 1/2) 1 unit

Rutgers - 4 1/2 (2nd half) 2 units

Nuggets (-2 1/2) 1st half 1 unit

Nuggets / Spurs (ov 97 1/2) 1st half 1 unit

Winner.

Probably wasn't all that contrarian for sports bettors because Florida has been awesome, but I couldn't pass up the chance to lay 10 against the #1 team in the country at a neutral site.

I am going to make a bowls thread.

Seemed like most people I talked to were taking Alabama with the points though, even the ones that thought Florida would win thought Alabama would keep it close by trying to control the clock.

Wang how many units you bang the Niners for last weekend?

Tonight's bets:

Tampa (+3 1/2)

Tampa / Carolina - 1Q (under 7)

Magic - 1H (-2)

The max. Redskins, too, though

Tonight's bets:

Pistons -9 1/2


Nets +2 1/2


Cleveland -10

NFL bets so far:

Steelers -2

Dolphins -3 1/2

Texans -7


And a 5 team (1st half) parlay that I'm sure won't hit, but the gambler in me needs some extra action to sweat:

Dolphins -2 1/2
Patriots -5
Bengals +1
Falcons +2 1/2
Lions +4

wrong thread