http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.p...part=1&vc=1

thats it. right there. seriously. this is all there is to it.



i've been thinking of a good way to share this with this board for a while, and i've been browsing through the 2+2 archives compiling a list of the best plo8 posts from 2006. this seemed like an excellent example to me.

This line doesn't look that good to me. I don't even see how this represents a powerful hand. It's hard to imagine many combos containing JT, 99, or QQ that get to the river, so the only powerful hand that hero can have is KK that decided to wait for a safe turn.
If hero had a medium strength hand like AK or whatever, then he'd just check it back for showdown value, so this river bet really represents a thin value bet with a hand like Q5, hoping to get looked up because it looks so suspicious.
That being said, once you've decided to bet the turn, I guess you have to go for it on the river too, but the whole idea looks suspicious to me. I guess if you're going to do the same thing with weak made hands like Q2, it is okay to do this with a pair of deuces once in awhile, but if you make it your standard line you are asking for trouble.

how often does his opponent have a hand he can call that river bet with here?

its much less than 50%.

look as suspicious as you want, he isn't calling you with a pair of queens there (unless he is really good and knows you).

fwiw i think if he had a hand like akxx he should turn it into a bluff and blast the river in this particular instance. its just so hard to have something to call with on that board.

which is exactly the point. when he checks to mute on the turn, mute recognizes that the river is probably either going to be very hard to call and allow him to bluff or give him a low. so he is building the pot to blast his opponent off their hand on the river.

once people stop stacking off to you with jack high flushes on paired boards you need to think of this game more and more in terms of stealing your opponents chips since you aren't going to get lots of money in anymore as a big favorite (and in the situations you do if you reverse the cards the hand will play out more or less the same so you didn't really win anything).

I agree 100% with this, but didn't think that much of the hand. It's basically call-bluff with a double-barrel when lo misses. Good bluff though, since being new to the table, oppo may assume tightness, and the bluff has a good chance of succeeding.
If hero is called and exposed, then value-betting will be massive for the session. I see that hand as a session set-up play. I wouldn't use that line too much personally

For me, the secret is more value betting and getting the ³/₄ for a larger amount of money. Those 3/4-card bluffs where the opponent fold their half on the river in a larger pot. But that bluff shows how to read hands and make river bets.

im finding that i don't 3/4 people very often anymore. but, becouse people have learned how to fold naked lows, its easy to blast people off of lots of small and medium size pots on the flop and turn.

i think some of the "better" players will go as far as to call a raise from me in position and then flop the nut low with no pair and no draw and fold to my bet on the flop. i mean, they almost have to be doing this, becouse they never show up on the river the the nut low and a mediocre high.

i do miss the days when i could raise the river all in with the nut low and middle pair for value though.

fwiw, the bolded part is something i do early in almost every session of pl/nlo8 that i play. you'd be surprised how often blowing a buyin or 1/2 a buyin on a weird bluff early allows you to just nutpeddle later on in sessions.

Game selection is actually the key to the game as much as anything else, but to be fair, you can't play euro sites.
Since they will fold to a blast, try adjusting your bets to keep people in, this could be part of an overall betting strategy. I don't know if it will work against Stars and Tilt players, but it's something to consider...

i've adjusted the other way. you should see some of the crap i raise with in posistion if a tight player limps in.