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fleung22
Get ready NBA for your 2008-2009 RAPTORS!!!





fleung22
Calderon Reaches New Deal with Raptors

Happy Canada Day indeed. Point guard Jose Calderon will remain a Toronto Raptor. The restricted free agent said so himself Tuesday.

"Early this morning, through my agents, I reached a preliminary agreement with the Toronto Raptors," Calderon said in a message posted on his Web site. "I want to thank [Raptors president and general manager] Bryan Colangelo, [assistant GM] Maurizio Gherardini, [coach] Sam Mitchell and all of the Raptors family for the confidence that they have placed in me.

"I am sure that together we are going to achieve big things in the future."

Calderon, who was in Madrid on Tuesday to meet with his Spain teammates ahead of the Olympic Games, declined to give details of the contract, but NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com that the Raptors have also struck verbal agreements to sign Croatian guard Roko Ukic, whom they drafted in 2005, and former New Jersey Nets draftee Hassan Adams along with Calderon after the moratorium is lifted.

As of 12:01 a.m. Tuesday morning, NBA teams were permitted to commence negotiations and strike verbal agreements with free agents, with actual signings and trades on hold until a leaguewide moratorium is lifted July 9.

Calderon averaged 11.2 points and 8.3 assists per game last year, when he split starting duties with T.J. Ford. But the path for him to be the full-time starter was cleared last week when the Raptors and Indiana Pacers agreed to a trade of six-time All-Star forward Jermaine O'Neal to Toronto for Ford, center Rasho Nesterovic and the 17th pick in the draft (which turned out to be Georgetown center Roy Hibbert).

The Raptors also received the 41st pick from the Pacers -- 6-foot-10 Australian Nathan Jawai -- and Indiana received Raptors forward Maceo Baston to complete the trade.
kobe2odom8
what do u think of Jermaine oneal for tj ford deal?
CaneBrain
QUOTE (kobe2odom8 @ Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008, 11:51 AM) *
what do u think of Jermaine oneal for tj ford deal?



at first I hated it. I thought Jermaine was a bad gamble. Then I realized that Toronto was NOT going to compete with Boston as is so they had to try something.

I worry that O'Neal and Bosh wont co-exist quite right. But Ford was expendable so why not take a shot? Best case scenario they have the best frontcourt in the East. Thats a good start. I still think they should be looking to add a 2 or a 3 in FA with their midlevel exception. and a backup PG.

Pietrus would be a GREAT pickup for the Raps.
outsider13
QUOTE (kobe2odom8 @ Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008, 2:51 PM) *
what do u think of Jermaine oneal for tj ford deal?

If O'Neal stays healthy, it's a great trade. If he doesn't, it's still not too bad of a trade. O'Neal's contract expires at the end of next year so if things don't work out, they aren't on the hook for his big contract too long.

All in all, the + far out weigh the - on this one. Another good deal by Colangelo.
CaneBrain
QUOTE (outsider13 @ Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008, 11:54 AM) *
O'Neal's contract expires at the end of next year so if things don't work out, they aren't on the hook for his big contract too long.



a key factor I forgot to mention. There is a flipside....if Jermaine plays great he might bolt at the end of the year. I still think you are right that the + outweight the -
babylondonks
QUOTE (CaneBrain @ Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008, 11:53 AM) *
at first I hated it. I thought Jermaine was a bad gamble. Then I realized that Toronto was NOT going to compete with Boston as is so they had to try something.

I worry that O'Neal and Bosh wont co-exist quite right. But Ford was expendable so why not take a shot? Best case scenario they have the best frontcourt in the East. Thats a good start. I still think they should be looking to add a 2 or a 3 in FA with their midlevel exception. and a backup PG.

Pietrus would be a GREAT pickup for the Raps.


Yeah, I'd like to see Pietrus with the Raptors, or Tony Allen actually. I'm a big Tony fan and would like nothing more than to see him succeed somewhere. I think he brings a lot to the table when he's on. I still have no idea why Pietrus was so underused in Golden State.
CaneBrain
QUOTE (babylondonks @ Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008, 4:33 PM) *
Yeah, I'd like to see Pietrus with the Raptors, or Tony Allen actually. I'm a big Tony fan and would like nothing more than to see him succeed somewhere. I think he brings a lot to the table when he's on. I still have no idea why Pietrus was so underused in Golden State.



He got into Nellie's doghouse for whatever reason and he never got out. He fits so well into what the Raps want to do.....lockdown defender and he hits 3s. If you have Calderon, Pietrus and Kapono on the court with Bosh and O'Neal....thats good stuff. Two big guys to create lots of open jumpers for guys who should knock them down.
babylondonks
QUOTE (CaneBrain @ Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008, 4:43 PM) *
He got into Nellie's doghouse for whatever reason and he never got out. He fits so well into what the Raps want to do.....lockdown defender and he hits 3s. If you have Calderon, Pietrus and Kapono on the court with Bosh and O'Neal....thats good stuff. Two big guys to create lots of open jumpers for guys who should knock them down.


Yeah, I'd love to see that team. Calderon does a great job setting people up, both Bosh and JO can play the post game and knock down the mid-range shot, and with Pietrus and Kapono knocking down threes it's a very balanced offense. Don't quote me but Pietrus is pretty effective cutting and moving without the ball from what I've seen of him (which I admit, isn't much). It would be like Orlando with double the post presence and a decent PG wink.gif And a much better defense with JO and (hopefully) Pietrus. Hopefully something like this can be done.
fleung22
QUOTE (kobe2odom8 @ Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008, 3:51 PM) *
what do u think of Jermaine oneal for tj ford deal?


initially I wouldn't say I hated the deal like Canebrain but no article or review really satisfied me. I felt like the Raps would need so many things to go right for O'neal to be part of a championship-caliber team. so if the Raps aren't gonna be a top tier team why invest into someone over 30?

I was one of the only TJ supporters left in Toronto and when he publicly said he wouldn't play as hard coming off the bench I couldn't defend the guy anymore. all stars have egos but when it leaks like that it's REALLY bothering you and now you're putting yourself ahead of the team. so now I kind of like the trade.

the back-up pg position become interesting now. Calderon will obviously log 35+ min. a game. delfino was decent in stretches as the ball handler and I hope he can do the job but I'd feel more comfortable with another pg kicking around.

I remember liking Jermaine in the past and if he can make a Grant Hill-in-Phoenix-like recovery it'll be exciting in RaptorLand.

eventually I ran into the following article and I can't really argue with the points.

Who wins the Raptors-Pacers trade? Everybody


It's rare that I like a trade from both sides, but once in a while one comes along that's mutually beneficial.

Wednesday's deal between Indiana and Toronto is just such a deal.

The swap would send Jermaine O'Neal to the Raptors for T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Toronto's first-round pick at No. 17, and probably one other player (likely Maceo Baston). The trade can't be completed until July 9, however, because Ford is a base-year compensation player until the first day that next season's cap rules kick in (July 1), and so the trade won't work under the cap until then. From then until July 9, the league has a moratorium on trades and signings. Given all that, the trade won't be official for a fortnight.

Instead, this will be the trade that everybody knows about but nobody acknowledges publicly. There will be no announcements or news conferences and it might mess with some summer-league plans. But the teams are exchanging medical information, and right now everything appears to be a go.

By the way, this delay also means there are still two weeks for other teams to get in on this trade and make it more than a two-way deal. (With luck, maybe it morphs into one of those indecipherable five-way deals that somehow involve the rights to an international player who was drafted five years ago but never got a sniff of the league. I have visions of Roberto Dueńas and Sergei Lishouk waiting anxiously by the phone to find out their new "team.")

Whatever happens, the draft pick seems likely to stay in the Pacers' hands, as the draft is within 24 hours. Tomorrow, the Raptors will choose whomever Larry Bird tells them to at No. 17 and then convey that player to Toronto in two weeks. But the other pieces (especially Ford and Nesterovic) could still be in play, as could the likes of Jamaal Tinsley.

Even if the trade doesn't expand any further, this one looks like a true win-win -- both teams are repackaging their assets to get into a far better position than they were before, and for either side, the downside seems pretty minimal.

Let's take a look, first, from the Pacers' side:

# They got something for Jermaine O'Neal: This wasn't easy, not with O'Neal being owed $44 million over the next two seasons and his run of poor health the past few years. While his name has come up a lot in trade conversations over the past year, talks never got far because the other side always flinched at his salary.

# They got a point guard: Ford was excellent last year when he played, ranking sixth among all point guards with a 20.4 player efficiency rating (PER). And while Ford's spinal stenosis condition is obviously a concern, I'm told the team doctors carefully went over his medical information and concluded there isn't anything immediately career-threatening.

# They can trade Tinsley: Obviously, this involves finding somebody who wants to take him, but he was their only true starting point guard. Now they have his replacement.

# The draft is their oyster: Prior to this trade, the Pacers seemed locked into taking D.J. Augustin at No. 11 to resolve the point guard issue. They still might -- forming an all-Longhorn point guard rotation -- but they're also freed to pursue other talents that may unexpectedly fall their way (like Brook Lopez). And with the No. 17 pick, they can grab a second young big man -- heavens knows this draft has enough of them -- to quickly rebuild the frontcourt rotation.

# Cap space! Ah, yes, now we get to the big kahuna. By taking on the expiring contracts of Nesterovic and Baston and taking back $2.5 million less than O'Neal makes to begin with, the Pacers put themselves in position to be about $16 million under the cap next summer (depending on where the cap number comes in, which we won't know until next July). They can pursue a big free agent (or take one in a trade) to team up with Ford, Danny Granger and the draft picks, and they'll have the next generation of Pacers up and running.

So, big picture, the Pacers finally start over. For the past couple seasons they've been hemming and hawing about whether to go in a new direction; now Bird has set a definitive course. As a result, look for other dominoes to fall in Indy -- starting with Tinsley and possibly including Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster.

Now, given all the positives for the Pacers, you might think the Raptors are getting fleeced here, but you'd be wrong. Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo has put his team in position to achieve three big objectives as well:

# A frontcourt presence: No longer will the Raptors have the league's wimpiest frontcourt. Adding O'Neal gives Toronto a legitimate post-up threat as well as one of the best defensive players in the league.

It also eases the wear and tear on Chris Bosh, who has suffered from having to play in the middle for much the past two seasons. Now Bosh is free to play where he belongs, at his natural power forward spot. And Andrea Bargnani is free to go back where he belongs: the bench.

Meanwhile, the threat of O'Neal on the block may open more room for Toronto's 3-point shooters, especially Jason Kapono.

# A point guard answer: The platoon between Ford and Jose Calderon imploded at the end of last season because Ford couldn't handle coming off the bench and Calderon was too good to yank from the starting lineup. It was also a waste of resources -- the Raptors had the fifth- and sixth-best point guards in the league by PER but couldn't play them together.

Converting one of those assets into a frontcourt player made all kinds of sense. And since Ford had a big contract (he has three years and $25 million left; Calderon is a restricted free agent who will probably get a bit over the midlevel in this market) and was the player with the dodgier health record, it made sense for him to be the one exiled.

# More flexibility: I think O'Neal will work out well in Toronto. Like I said, he answers a need and he's still a good player when healthy. And he's reportedly spending his summer in Las Vegas, working out with noted trainer Joe Abunassar.

But suppose I'm wrong and O'Neal doesn't work out. In fact, let's say O'Neal is an absolute disaster in 2008-09.

Is the trade a disaster then for the Raptors? No, it is not. Because the Raptors, at that point, would be sitting on a $23 million expiring contract for 2009-10. And depending on what Colangelo does with his other contracts between now and then, he can go down one of two paths: (1) eat the cap savings and get in position for the summer of 2010, when some big names will likely be on the market or (2) trade his mammoth expiring contract for somebody else's big contract, as the Lakers did in the Pau Gasol trade this winter. Either way he comes out of it OK.

So the upshot is, this deal absolutely works for both teams. I expect the Raptors to be significantly better next season as a result of this deal, as it takes a player who was utterly redundant and converts him into a solution for the team's single biggest weakness.

And I expect the Pacers' rebuilding to be much smoother and faster now that they've jettisoned O'Neal and received '09 cap space and two good young pieces in return.

The players come out of it in better shape, too. O'Neal and Ford get new leases on life after being sprung from difficult situations. Bosh finally gets a frontcourt partner to do the dirty work for him. Calderon gets starter's minutes and some added salary leverage. Even throw-ins Nesterovic and Baston are likely to get more burn in Indy than they would have in Toronto. Only Bargnani loses.

So it's a win-win all-around. Kudos to both Bird and Colangelo for recognizing the mutual benefit.
fleung22
QUOTE (CaneBrain @ Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008, 3:53 PM) *
Pietrus would be a GREAT pickup for the Raps.


lots of up and comers with "potential" in the league...I'm not sure the Raps are looking to really change the 2 or 3 position much.

back court looks pretty filled with Calderon, Parker, Delfino

SF has Kapono, Moon and occasionally Bargnani (if they try the 3 big man experiment).

I didn't think of the other implications of having O'neal before either. Like this really gives Kapono a chance to start on the team and take more treys. The floor is going to be spread more than ever. All the guards can shoot and go to the hoop. I like Bosh or O'neal with single coverage.
FCP Bob
Doug Smith's Raptor Blog at the Toronto Star is a great source of information.

http://thestar.blogs.com/raptors/

Delfino is most likely going to end up in Europe as he'll get more money there than any NBA team will pay him. He pretty much for sure won't be a Raptor.

The back up point guard is going to be Roko Ukic and they've signed Hassan Adams to a minimum contract to play some SG.

Here are some comments from Doug Smith's blog about both players.

You know who was responsible for Hassan Adams bouncing out of the NBA?
Jamaal Magloire.

When the Nets decided to lavish Magloire with a $4 million contract a year ago, it meant someone had to go to avoid paying luxury tax and that someone was Adams, who got waived along with Clifford Robinson.

That sure worked out well for the Nets, didn’t it.

There was much hue and cry down in Jersey when that move was made. My man Dave D’Alessandro still thinks it’s one of the most egregious roster mistakes the Nets have made and there’s a rather long list of them.

Here’s how John Hollinger in the New York Sun panned the move:

To cut Adams in order to pull this move off seems shortsighted at best. I don't want to overstate things here — he wasn't going to be the next Dr.J or anything. But he was primed to be a very effective energy guy off the bench, essentially a 6-foot-4-inch version of the Knicks' Renaldo Balkman. In his rookie year after he was New Jersey's second-round choice in 2006, Adams shot 55.6% from the field and averaged an impressive-for-a-guard 6.1 rebounds per 40 minutes. He can't shoot from outside, but his running and energy were effective enough that he still averaged a point every three minutes, which is decent production for a reserve.


All told, his Player Efficiency Rating (PER, my per-minute rating of a player's statistical effectiveness) of 12.8 was solid for a reserve, especially one in his rookie season — and especially one competing with the likes of Wright (8.2) and Bernard Robinson (7.8) for playing time.

But don't feel bad for Adams — some smart team will nab him real fast, probably for much more than the Nets were scheduled to pay him. Instead, feel bad for Kidd and Carter, who just lost one of the few potentially productive supporting players for this coming season.

And most of all feel bad for Nets fans, who now must lament that their team gave up their remaining space under the luxury tax to sign a fading backup center and effectively traded up one of their most promising young players to make the deal. It's just the latest glaring example of Thorn's inability to surround his stars with the talent necessary to return this team to the conference's elite, and I'm not sure he can make enough big-picture moves to undo the damage.

Oh, and Dave chimes in with this note:

The secret to Hassan Adams’ success is that he cheats.


Or, let’s just say he has an unfair advantage that any player would want – the advantage of ambidexterity.

You may have noticed that the Nets wing has as strong a left hand as any rookie to come down the pike in a while – those right-baseline-drive-and-reverse finishes against Boston were a good example – and it’s because he is actually a natural southpaw.

He just happens to play basketball right-handed.

"I don’t even know how that happened – I really don’t,” Adams said. “I don’t even remember (consciously) switching, even though I’m a true lefty at everything. I write lefty, I eat lefty. But I can write righty, too.”

What else does he do with his right hand? Almost everything pertaining to athletics – hitting baseballs, golfing, throwing a football.

"It’s just not as natural for me to shoot left-handed for some reason,” he said. “But put me on the foul line and tell me to shoot lefty, and I’ll hit eight out of 10 that way.”

I don’t know how Adams will eventually do in Toronto – one NBA assistant coach told me his team had Adamsin for a long look and passed on him – but if he can become the fourth man in the wing rotation, that’s not a bad thing.

-

Speaking of Roko Ukic, and I feel we will be speaking of him often over the next few months, this being Roko Ukic Love Central and all, I was able to talk to a couple of people who know him quite well yesterday.

Gord Herbert, one of Canada’s most accomplished coaches (the most accomplished international coach, as a matter of fact) coached Aris TT Bank of Greece and the Euroleague last year and he said Ukic has more than enough game to thrive in the NBA.

And old friend Peter Guarasci, still one of the all-time good Canadian players, played in Italy against Ukic last season. He says the kid’s got some big game in him, and may not look like the greatest shooter in the world but he’s not afraid to take a big shot.
fleung22
I don't know enough about Adams to comment but it worries me a bit that the Cavs let him go. Clevand's bench at the beginning of last season wasn't exactly A-list of back-ups.

Ukic was absolutely necessary to fill the white-guy quota since we lost Rasho smile.gif
CaneBrain
QUOTE (fleung22 @ Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008, 6:30 PM) *
lots of up and comers with "potential" in the league...I'm not sure the Raps are looking to really change the 2 or 3 position much.

back court looks pretty filled with Calderon, Parker, Delfino

SF has Kapono, Moon and occasionally Bargnani (if they try the 3 big man experiment).

.



You just named 6 players and not one of them is HALF the defender Pietrus is. I think for that reason alone he would be a good pick up.....he is a much better option at the 2 than Hassan Adams or Delfino.

Bargnani should be coming off the bench for now....you have enough bigs.....get shooters (Kapono!) on the floor as much as you can.

I miss Kapono. He was my favorite Heat player (after Wade).
outsider13
Yeah, the definitely need Kapono in the game more. Unfortunately for the Raptors, they didn't realize it until playoffs. Plus, with the injuries they had to TJ Ford, he never really got in sync with Calderon. TJ would penetrate and kick whereas Calderon is more of a point guard and Kapono just looked lost on the wing. It seemed like for 70 games of the year they never even had a play designed for him, then playoffs come along and he's the key guy on offense all of a sudden.

I'm pretty sure the starting 5 for next year will be Bosh, O'Neal, Moon, Parker, Calderon. Moon is a good shot blocker, but not the greatest defender. Parker is also a solid defender.

I think the one thing that the team is missing is a grit guy, or somebody who's going to hard foul a guy when needed. The team is still a bit soft. Garbajosa was good at that, Oakley was obviously the best, Delfino was decent at it. Hopefully Hassan Adams?
fleung22
QUOTE (CaneBrain @ Thursday, July 3rd, 2008, 9:55 AM) *
I miss Kapono. He was my favorite Heat player (after Wade).


Shaq?
fleung22
QUOTE (outsider13 @ Thursday, July 3rd, 2008, 10:09 AM) *
Yeah, the definitely need Kapono in the game more. Unfortunately for the Raptors, they didn't realize it until playoffs. Plus, with the injuries they had to TJ Ford, he never really got in sync with Calderon. TJ would penetrate and kick whereas Calderon is more of a point guard and Kapono just looked lost on the wing. It seemed like for 70 games of the year they never even had a play designed for him, then playoffs come along and he's the key guy on offense all of a sudden.

I'm pretty sure the starting 5 for next year will be Bosh, O'Neal, Moon, Parker, Calderon. Moon is a good shot blocker, but not the greatest defender. Parker is also a solid defender.

I think the one thing that the team is missing is a grit guy, or somebody who's going to hard foul a guy when needed. The team is still a bit soft. Garbajosa was good at that, Oakley was obviously the best, Delfino was decent at it. Hopefully Hassan Adams?


problem is Kapono isn't great at making his own space. he's been getting better but with rebounding being such a big issue they needed Moon last year. Jermaine's presence will change that and I'm sure Kapono will get every opportunity in camp to prove himself as a starter.

Moon's defense should improve...he has all the skills it's just about positioning and increasing his bball IQ
CaneBrain
QUOTE (fleung22 @ Thursday, July 3rd, 2008, 7:02 PM) *
Shaq?



nope Kapono. I am not a complete star ****** when it comes to athletes on my own team. When I was a kid my favorite dolphin was Mark Clayton not Dan Marino. I just love Kapono's dopey run and his dead eye shooting. His season with the Heat there was a month stretch where everyone in the arena EXPECTED the ball to go in when he shot a 3.
Steve Holt
QUOTE (fleung22 @ Friday, July 4th, 2008, 11:08 AM) *
problem is Kapono isn't great at making his own space. he's been getting better but with rebounding being such a big issue they needed Moon last year. Jermaine's presence will change that and I'm sure Kapono will get every opportunity in camp to prove himself as a starter.

Moon's defense should improve...he has all the skills it's just about positioning and increasing his bball IQ


It doesn't matter. Miami had one stinker year and Toronto was ok.

The Heat will be at the top of the East for years to come while the Raptors make crowd-pleasing changes that get them to the 2nd round at best.
serge
I have been on vacation and totally missed that Chuck Swirsky is gone to Chicago. What happened there??
outsider13
QUOTE (serge @ Wednesday, July 9th, 2008, 11:54 AM) *
I have been on vacation and totally missed that Chuck Swirsky is gone to Chicago. What happened there??

That was a good month or two ago. He's their radio play by play guy now. No more Salami & Cheese sad.gif

http://tsn.ca/nba/story/?id=236934&lid...=headlines_main
fleung22
QUOTE (serge @ Thursday, July 10th, 2008, 12:54 AM) *
I have been on vacation and totally missed that Chuck Swirsky is gone to Chicago. What happened there??


c'mon serge...that's old news. the announcement was made during the playoffs.

only explanation was "for family reasons"

salami and cheese will never be the same sad.gif
FCP Bob
I just did my draft for which games I'll be going to this year as I buy a third of the season from somebody. First row in the upper bowl and face value is only $43 per ticket which is a great value for these seats as they have extra legroom and nobody sitting in from of you.

Fri Oct 31st - Golden State - Home Opener
Wed Nov 12th - Sixers
Sun Nov 19th - Heat
Wed Nov 26th - Charlotte
Sun Dec 14th - New Orleans
Fri Jan 2nd - Houston
Wed Jan 14th - Chicago
Fri Jan 30th - Milwaukee
Wed Feb 4th - Lakers
Tues Feb 24th - Minnesota
Fri Mar 6th - Heat
Sun Mar 15th - Pacers
Tues Apr 7th Atlanta
Sun Apr 12th - Sixers

I went into the draft hoping to get Lakers, Suns and New Orleans so getting 2 of the 3 makes me happy. I also wanted the Sixers games as got them as well.
outsider13
Sigh at missing the Suns game. And wtf with them opening up against a West coast team at home. That hardly makes any sense.
fleung22
QUOTE (FCP Bob @ Thursday, October 2nd, 2008, 12:43 AM) *
I just did my draft for which games I'll be going to this year as I buy a third of the season from somebody. First row in the upper bowl and face value is only $43 per ticket which is a great value for these seats as they have extra legroom and nobody sitting in from of you.

Fri Oct 31st - Golden State - Home Opener
Wed Nov 12th - Sixers
Sun Nov 19th - Heat
Wed Nov 26th - Charlotte
Sun Dec 14th - New Orleans
Fri Jan 2nd - Houston
Wed Jan 14th - Chicago
Fri Jan 30th - Milwaukee
Wed Feb 4th - Lakers
Tues Feb 24th - Minnesota
Fri Mar 6th - Heat
Sun Mar 15th - Pacers
Tues Apr 7th Atlanta
Sun Apr 12th - Sixers

I went into the draft hoping to get Lakers, Suns and New Orleans so getting 2 of the 3 makes me happy. I also wanted the Sixers games as got them as well.


wow, nice draft bob. I'll be back sometime in 2009...if you happen to need a friend... wink.gif
babylondonks
Any word on Nathan Jawai? I've heard that he has some heart problems
fleung22
I'm pretty damn excited about this upcoming season. Any news on the starting line-up? Has training camp started??

My guess:

5O'neal
4Bosh
3Moon/Kapono
2Parker
1Calderon

I think having Bargnani come off the bench again will be really beneficial to his progress. Less pressure and playing against weaker opponents should bode well for Andrea. I think this may be the last year for Graham to prove he's worth something or else he's gonna get moved.


Team Forecast: Toronto Raptors

2007-08 Recap
It was only one season, but it kind of felt like three.

Act I saw the Raptors get out to a solid 12-10 start. Starting point guard T.J. Ford was playing like an All-Star while sharing time with backup Jose Calderon -- often in a perfect 24-24 minutes split, and the Raps were playing better than their record. In fact, they ripped off two 30-point road wins in the season's first two weeks.

HOLLINGER'S '07-08 STATS
W-L: 41-41 (Pythagorean W-L: 51-31)
Offensive Efficiency: 107.7 (9th)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (14th)
Pace Factor: 92.4 (25th)
Highest PER: Chris Bosh (23.88)

That came to a sudden end, however, when a blow from Atlanta's Al Horford knocked out Ford, who has a history of neck and spine problems. In addition to scaring the bejeezus out of everyone present, the injury kept him out action for nearly two months.

Act II, however, saw the Raptors fail to skip a beat. Calderon took over as the starting point guard and played even better than Ford, registering near-nightly double-doubles in points and assists while hardly ever turning the ball over and shooting over 50 percent from the floor. Toronto went 18-14 from the Ford injury until late February, when he'd been able to work his way back into a regular rotation spot and back into his time-share at the point with Calderon.

At this point, the Raptors looked like a dark horse to make a deep playoff run -- they'd even had an impressive road win in Boston -- and the general thinking was "imagine how tough they'll be when Ford is back at full strength."

Instead, their season went off the rails. Ford tried to force the action at every opportunity and bristled at coming off the bench behind Calderon. He was such a distraction that eventually the Raptors put him back in as a starter, but by then the damage had already been done.

From Feb. 25 -- the first game where Ford saw more than half the action -- through the end of the playoffs, the Raptors went 13-20, closing with a five-game dismissal at the hands of Orlando in the first-round of the playoffs. Toronto was 3-17 on the road in that stretch, lost home games to Indiana and Charlotte, and generally bore no resemblance to the cohesive, efficient unit that played the first 54 games.

L'Affaire Ford dominated the headlines, but the other interesting story was the development of Andrea Bargnani … or rather, the lack of it. The first overall pick in 2007 was handed a starting job and major minutes after a solid rookie year, in anticipation of a possible breakout in Year 2. Instead the Raptors got a very different break -- a total breakdown in his shooting and confidence. Bargnani shot 38.6 percent from the floor with a 10.68 player efficiency rating; given his defensive shortcomings, he was one of the worst players in the league to see regular minutes.

Compare him to the Raptors' other big men and you can see how costly his playing time was. Rasho Nesterovic shot 55 percent with a 16.23 PER; Kris Humphries shot 48.3 percent and had a 15.72 PER; and little-used Maceo Baston also shot well and posted a strong PER. Had the Raptors simply benched Bargnani and played the other three guys more, they would have projected to win 3-to-5 more games, depending on your playing time assumptions for the others. That, in turn, might have been enough for them to finish fourth in the East and host a first-round playoff series.

Instead, Bargnani played 1,856 minutes, and for the most part he played them quite badly. His situation immediately brought up echoes of the last guy the Raptors gave heavy minutes to solely because he was a first-round pick, but let's not start the Rafael Araujo comparisons just yet. Unlike Hoffa, Bargnani demonstrated considerable ability in his rookie season; it's just unfortunate that he regressed so much last season.

Despite Bargnani's struggles, the Raptors were one of the league's best shooting teams overall. Toronto was second in the league in 3-point shooting at 39.2 percent, and was also second with an 81.2 percent mark from the line.

Unfortunately, they didn't attempt either shot in large quantities. The low free-throw rate won't surprise longtime Raps fans, who have watched their team play largely outside the paint for years -- as a result, Toronto had the league's lowest rate of free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, pretty much undoing any advantage from shooting so well from the stripe.

More surprising is that the Raptors' 3-point rate was slightly below the league average; you'd think a team full of jump-shooters would find a way to get three points more often. The shining example here is Jason Kapono, a free-agent flop despite shooting 48.3 percent from downtown -- largely because fewer than a quarter of his attempts were 3s.

Lowest Turnover Rate, 2007-08
TEAM PCT. OF POSSESSIONS W/ TO
Toronto 12.6
New Orleans 12.8
Detroit 12.9
Golden State 13.0
Dallas 13.7
League Average 14.8

The Raps also took remarkably good care of the ball. With two point guards playing at a high level and several low-turnover, catch-and-shoot guys around them, Toronto's best offensive attribute was that they almost never turned the ball over. The Raptors gave it away on only 12.6 percent of their possessions, easily the best rate in the league (see chart). Because of this they took an above-average number of shots per possession despite being a horrible offensive rebounding team.

Those positives allowed Toronto to finish ninth in the league in offensive efficiency, and combined with a league-average defense that was notable mainly for the high number of 3-point attempts it allowed, it enabled the Raptors to outscore their opponents by 238 points on the season.

In fact, the Raptors were a far better team than most folks realized. Though their record was only 41-41, they heavily outscored their opponents -- Toronto had the victory margin of a 51-win team. The Raps had the greatest differential between real and expected wins in 2007-08; in fact it was one of the largest in recent history (see chart).

Real vs. Expected Wins: Biggest Negative Differentials
TEAM REAL W EXPECTED W DIFF.
Toronto 41 50.8 -9.8
Utah 54 61.6 -7.6
Orlando 52 58.1 -6.1
Detroit 59 64.5 -5.5
L.A. Lakers 57 62.1 -5.5

That last part, at least, is a good omen for the coming season. Point differential is a better predictor of future success than win-loss record, so the fact that margin was so strong is a great indicator.

And the Raptors were unlucky in another way, too. Their opponents shot 77.6 percent from the line; no other team's opponents shot as high a percentage. Obviously, this was luck, unless you want to argue that Toronto has an innate inability to "defend" free throws. Compared to the league average of 75.5 percent, it cost the Raptors 0.42 points per game, which was worth slightly more than one win over the course of a season. All told, then, the Raptors went 41-41 … but with the stats of a 51-win team.

Biggest Strength: Interior defense
It sounds crazy to be saying this about a Raptors team, but if O'Neal is even remotely healthy it will be true. His defense hasn't received a lot of attention so I'm not sure casual fans understand what a force he is at that end -- he not only block shots, rebounds and takes charges, but he's tough enough to guard the opponent's top post threat every night. Those attributes will be immensely helpful to Bosh, as he often was an undersized center in previous Raptors lineups.

OFFSEASON MOVES
What roster moves did the Raptors make over the summer? Were they the right moves? John Hollinger breaks it down. Insider Insider

Instead, he can be the active, perimeter-focused guy who guards the lesser of the opponent's frontcourt threats and can make plays from the weak side with his quickness and length. Those who watched the U.S. Olympic team saw what a force he can be in that role.

In addition, don't forget about small forward Jamario Moon, another long high-flier who blocks shots like a big man. Between he, Bosh and O'Neal the Raps should be among the league leaders in shot blocks and defensive rebounding, even with relatively little help from the frontcourt off the pine.

Biggest Weakness: Backcourt depth
The Raptors had a strong second unit on the perimeter a year ago, as the Ford-Calderon tag team at the point was incredibly effective and Delfino often gave the team a big spark on the wings.

This year it's the opposite situation. At the very least, Ukic is going to need an adjustment year before he's ready to be an effective contributor; for this year it's more of a "please don't kill us" situation for the 10 minutes or so that he relives Calderon. On the wings, the loss of Delfino leaves Adams, Kapono and Joey Graham fighting for minutes; none are particularly appetizing solutions.

Kapono probably offers the greatest potential because of his long-range shooting ability, but that's only a factor if he actually shoots some 3s. Otherwise his defensive shortcomings will swallow up any benefit he provides offensively. Graham is a good athlete but has looked lost at both ends, while Adams is a limited energizer who won't score much.

About the best thing Toronto could do here would be to trade for a more proven reserve, but they can't cobble much together in expiring contracts or prospects to make such a deal happen.

Outlook
In projecting Toronto's record, it's important to note that they had the performance of a 52-win team a year ago, even though they only won 41 games, and that they could have won even more had they not sabotaged themselves by keeping Bargnani in the rotation.

The trade for O'Neal offers another potential bright spot. While Calderon can take over most of the minutes that Ford played a year ago, O'Neal fills in a large defensive void and, if healthy, should greatly improve Toronto at this end. That's the rub, of course -- I projected him to average 27 minutes a game, including injury time-outs, and even that may have been optimistic.

Additionally, the bench seems nowhere near as strong as the unit from a year ago. Toronto finds itself counting on players like Ukic, Kapono and Bargnani, and based on their numbers from a season ago that's a scary proposition indeed. It's possible Bargnani surprises us with a breakout year, but the odds of the other two doing so are remote.

Add it all up and you have a sleeper in the East, but one whose lack of depth and injury-prone frontcourt make it unlikely to pile up a huge regular-season victory total. They may very well win a round in the playoffs, but they're not quite ready to move into the conference's upper crust yet.

Prediction: 47-35, 3rd in Atlantic Division, T-5th in Eastern Conference
FCP Bob
If you want to read about what's going on with the Raptors on a daily basis you should read Doug Smith's blog at the Toronto Star.

http://thestar.blogs.com/raptors/
fleung22
QUOTE (FCP Bob @ Tuesday, October 7th, 2008, 6:02 PM) *
If you want to read about what's going on with the Raptors on a daily basis you should read Doug Smith's blog at the Toronto Star.

http://thestar.blogs.com/raptors/


wow, great blog. thanks bob!
fleung22
So it looks like most of the rotation is set for the upcoming season (barring injury):

starting:

5O'neal
4Bosh
3Moon
2Parker
1Calderon

bench

5Humphries
4Bargnani
3Kapono
2Graham
1Solomon/Ukic

biggest question left is who will back-up Calderon on pg. looks like it's Solomon's job to lose but from recent statements from Sam it looks like Ukic isn't that fasr away.

fleung22
wow, Bosh looked good in leading the Raptors to a 1-0 start to the season
GeneralGeeWhiz
Warriors are gonna PWN tonight!
chgocubs99
Are Raptors fans the best fans in the league? Amazing amount of energy in that building for an early season game, and I seem to remember something similar when they play the Bulls.
FCP Bob
QUOTE (chgocubs99 @ Friday, October 31st, 2008, 9:37 PM) *
Are Raptors fans the best fans in the league? Amazing amount of energy in that building for an early season game, and I seem to remember something similar when they play the Bulls.


I was at the game tonight and the Raptor fans do really get into games. Maybe not the best in the league but we're up there.

Poppy_Hillis
QUOTE (chgocubs99 @ Friday, October 31st, 2008, 6:37 PM) *
Are Raptors fans the best fans in the league? Amazing amount of energy in that building for an early season game, and I seem to remember something similar when they play the Bulls.

In my opinion the top 4 in no particular order are: Portland, Utah, Toronto and Golden State.
Poppy_Hillis
What's the deal with KG and Calderon tonight. Did Calderon start talking to KG earlier? This should be a great 4th quarter.

Edit: Wow, that's a tough loss. God, I hate the Celtics.
FCP Bob
QUOTE (Poppy_Hillis @ Monday, November 10th, 2008, 9:29 PM) *
What's the deal with KG and Calderon tonight. Did Calderon start talking to KG earlier? This should be a great 4th quarter.

Edit: Wow, that's a tough loss. God, I hate the Celtics.


It was Garnett doing things that if it was anybody else would get them a taunting tech and Calderon just reacting.

Boston plays tough but it sure helps when they get all the calls and not just against the Raptors. My biggest issue with the NBA is the fact that the refs don't call games straight up but call based on reputation.



Poppy_Hillis
QUOTE (FCP Bob @ Monday, November 10th, 2008, 7:09 PM) *
It was Garnett doing things that if it was anybody else would get them a taunting tech and Calderon just reacting.

Boston plays tough but it sure helps when they get all the calls and not just against the Raptors. My biggest issue with the NBA is the fact that the refs don't call games straight up but call based on reputation.

Yea, I've never seen a more blatant example of taunting than that, right in the middle of the floor no less, every time down for like 2 minutes. I don't get it.

Boston gets every call all the time, but the Lakers do get the benefit a lot of the time so I can't really complain. Well except Game 2 of the Finals. That was a joke.
babylondonks
I can't say I've seen the game, but from what I've read that definately seemed like taunting, like, not even Dikembe 'crowd taunting'. Apparently it got into his head though.

I completely agree with the thoughts about fair calling though, unfortunately the NBA has become a league dominated by superstars and the refs have to give them leeway for their highlights reels and it creates terrible fundamentals. The number of carries and travels you see, not to mention invisible fouls, it's disgusting. It's what makes players like LeBron so tough to play against on any one game.

Looking at the box score, Bosh only took 8 shots?
HollywoodAFD
QUOTE (fleung22 @ Wednesday, July 2nd, 2008, 4:09 AM) *
Get ready NBA for your 2008-2009 RAPTORS!!!






Since I'm Canadian now... this may be my new team !
Steamed Rice
QUOTE (FCP Bob @ Monday, November 10th, 2008, 10:09 PM) *
It was Garnett doing things that if it was anybody else would get them a taunting tech and Calderon just reacting.

Boston plays tough but it sure helps when they get all the calls and not just against the Raptors. My biggest issue with the NBA is the fact that the refs don't call games straight up but call based on reputation.


Imagine if Sheed or Artest did that taunting...they would watch the game from the locker room and their wallets would be $5k lighter.

I'm tired of KG changing calls by yapping in refs ears and Pierce getting every call, every time.
HollywoodAFD
Go Toronto, eh !
outsider13
They looked quite good yesterday. Their starting 5 is really good. Their big downfall this year has been the play of Will Solomon. The guy is really terrible. If Jose Calderon has to leave the court, their second team just looks terrible with him running the floor.
Jadaki
QUOTE (outsider13 @ Thursday, November 20th, 2008, 12:51 PM) *
They looked quite good yesterday. Their starting 5 is really good. Their big downfall this year has been the play of Will Solomon. The guy is really terrible. If Jose Calderon has to leave the court, their second team just looks terrible with him running the floor.


Makes you miss the days of Ford and Calderon in the backcourt, was part of what made the Raps a decent team was their second PG was always better than the other teams second PG.

outsider13
QUOTE (Jadaki @ Thursday, November 20th, 2008, 3:21 PM) *
Makes you miss the days of Ford and Calderon in the backcourt, was part of what made the Raps a decent team was their second PG was always better than the other teams second PG.

I really think that Roko Ukic is a better PG than Solomon. I think that Solomon plays better D though and the Raptors second team really lacks on the defensive side.
Poppy_Hillis
Wow.

Disappointed I didn't see this game.
fleung22
I can`t find a link to the article but basically Bosh has come out with an MVP mentality and thinks he can compete for it.

Still lots of season left but CB4 is 2nd in ppg and up there in min played. Any chance or is Lebron pretty much a lock
ncperrotta069
Lebron is certainly not a lock as he had has similar numbers in recent years and is yet to win one
fleung22
QUOTE (ncperrotta069 @ Monday, December 1st, 2008, 8:45 AM) *
Lebron is certainly not a lock as he had has similar numbers in recent years and is yet to win one


but now that Kobe got his MVP it`s pretty hard to ignore Lebron. MVP should be for the individual year but we all know that if it`s close then performance history definitely helps.
FCP Bob
Bye Bye Sam Mitchell

Never have been impressed with him as a Coach.

Just not very good at tactics it seems.

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