Micro stakes STT. I had recently taken a bunch of chips from villain when I flopped T2P w/ AK in a blind battle and got him to lead into me and call my turn check-raise w/ TPWK. How do you play this differently?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG (t1325)
MP1 (t1400)
MP2 (t2737)
Hero (t2300)
Button (t3225)
SB (t1440)
BB (t1073)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 8.
3 folds, Hero raises to t300, Button calls t300, 2 folds.

Flop: (t750) A, K, A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t750) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (t750) A (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t400, Hero calls t400.

Oh, and I called the river because I figured he would have bet the flop or turn with virtually any hand that beats me on the river.

Well, at least it was inexpensive

HU on a paired board, lead the flop. Particularly with AA and its such a scary board that you know if he calls/raises to shut down from there.

Yeah, good point - leading the flop is likely to get me important info. Do you CB for about 1/2 pot there?

$450 is good on that flop imo.

Yea.. agreed.. bet the flop. maybe even bet the turn if he just calls your bet on the flop. Unless he's slow playing a monster against you, he's as scared of that board as you are. 40-50% of the pot is probably a good bet on the flop.

Yeah, that sounds good. You need to look like your protecting an A against a flush draw, but not so much that you scare away potential action.

I wouldn't call the river, he can value bet absolutely everything by then and It seems like a really random spot to bluff given that at this level he's likely to get looked up by someone playin the board

yeah, you said it, it's basically a really random spot and that's why i call.

If youre going to call, bet. You can fold out better hands easily with that board.

Hate to be a "me too", but yeah, bet the flop. If he calls, you're done with the hand, but you'll get plenty of folds in the long term from anything that might catchup later.

300-400 on flop. don't really see the point in betting higher than that
as played, I think I call the river. He has a bluff here enough for it to be profitable I think

As it turns out he did have a King - I'm guessing he didn't bet the flop because he was scared of an Ace, and then didn't bet the turn when the flush card fell. When I checked the turn he figured his K was good so led out.

Hard to know if a flop bet would have folded him given that he was holding a K.

betting the flop would never fold a king in a million years

It really doesn't matter because you are making a C-bet against his range not his individual hand.

Let's say you make a C-bet of 450. That would be 37.5% of the total pot. That means you are saying: "I wager that this bet will make you fold at least 37.5% of your range."

If he calls more than 37.5% of the time, it's -EV. If he folds more than 37.5%, it's +EV.

I'm not good at math, but i'm pretty sure the % he needs to fold for a bet to be profitable isn't the % of the pot you bet

Youre good enough at math to know thats wrong!

I think where AimHigher was intending to go is that if youre bluffing (so P(winning)=P(villain folds)), then you need to bet the % of the pot that makes him fold at least half the time?

Unfortunately I'm not good enough at math to follow what any of you are saying...

Where did I go wrong?

Isn't the percantage we need him to fold the result of: bet / (bet + pot)

?

At least if we completely exclude our current equity?

no, thats the equity you need to the river, including fold equity, to make a bet.

Yeah, I understand. But how do I calculate the EV of a continuation bet?

A CB is really just a semi-bluff and both are calculated the same way:

P(villain folds)*pot +P(villain calls)*[(pot+bet)*P(you beat villain)-bet*P(you lose to villain)]

Note that P(you lose to villain) includes the probability that he raises and you fold, and that you never call a raise. Pure bluffs are just P(you beat villain)~0, so you drop the bolded term.