Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

Button ($10.20)
SB ($24.05)
BB ($25)
UTG ($52.10)
Hero ($45.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9 , 9 . UTG posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero raises to $0.85, Button calls $0.85, 1 fold, UTG (poster) calls $0.60.

Flop: ($2.65) 4 , 5 , 5 (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, Button folds, UTG calls $2.

Turn: ($6.65) 8 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($6.65) Q (3 players)
UTG bets $5, Hero ?

I've been playing with UTG for a while now, he seems reasonably decent, pretty aggressive post flop but I haven't seen him showdown any bluffs so far.

Is his bet size a tell here? Given he was pretty decent/aggro I thought he'd check raise the flop if he had a 5, and given it was a rainbow flop I can't really see him randomly floating with two overs so I don't see the queen helping him much, 88 fits quite well though, 67 too.

Turn I probably should have bet I think, not entirely sure why I checked.

I think because you checked the turn, you have to call this river but should expect TT / QJ or something weird and random like that. I bet that turn pretty hard and the river plays itself.

Bet the turn, check back the river.

I probably call here.

Call, only hands that make sense if he's a competent opponent are QQ, 88, and 44. I think A-Q and higher pp's aren't hitting the river as hard since your hand looks like missed high cards often enough they want to get some value.

If he's competent, and not bad, he won't play QQ, 88, or 44 like this. I think we have to call, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5 here since he posted and is probably just not wanting to fold PF. Lot's of people take this line when they flop trips against a PF aggressor.

I would've thought this was a fold, I can't see 30% of his range bluffing the river.

Edit: Why is a decent player posting UTG?

i'm with acid knight
bet the turn, fold to a raise
and as given here, just call

I bet turn and fold to a raise. If he calls turn, I check behind on river. As played, I'd have to call the river since your turn check is just inviting him to take a shot at the pot.

If you check the turn, you have the call the river.

It's better to just bet the turn and then check it down after getting two streets of value from draws/worse pairs.

Although I still think this is a call... out of curiosity, how many call this with AK? And what's the difference between 9's and AK here?

Nothing? both hands are bluff catchers right? The only question in this hand should be is he bluffing more than 30% of the time.

He could easily be value betting 4x or 8x or 66 or 77 or something here. I wouldn't call with AK becuase there are too many random pairs in his range, but 99 beats everything but 67, trips or a rivered Q.

Ok, so it gets some hands that are overvaluing/turning a showdown worthy hand into a bluff.

Makes sense, ty.

I don't think he's ever turning a hand like 34 into a bluff here, even if he's betting with it. It'd be much more likely that he's just betting becuase he has a pair and doesn't know what else to do.

I mean, hypothetically, if I had 68o here on the river, I'm probably betting and hoping he hero calls Ace high.

Yeh I should have bet the turn, I'm really bad at doing that lately.

Anyway I called and he had 44, I felt his river bet sizing was a bit of a tell but I suppose that might be being a bit results orientated/the fact I played with him for longer afterwards.

I think I b/f the turn to get value from a smaller pocket pair/A4 or if he decided to do a retarded float oop with overs.
c/f any non 9 river if called on the turn, I don't think he is calling with a 4 or 66/77.

Notes
posts UTG, checks w 44, calls pf raise, c/c with flopped underfull oop, checked turn, bet 3/4pot on river
slowplays big hands on flop and turn, does not raise small pairs pf when posting

By the way you are questioning this players range, I would suggest calling, if not strictly for information on his line and hand range...

As played, I dont call with anything less than three of a kind 5s here. I don't mind the check on the turn. And what no one else has seemed to realize the running spades, isn't 4s3s a possible holding. Player unknown I don't think any decent player would use this time to attempt a bluff nor would they be betting because of the Q. Maybe because of the spade or maybe because they hoped for a check raise on the turn and you dissapointed them and they are now betting for value hoping you have a hand or that you don't give them credit for a hand and will call with Ace high.

is raising him as a bluff here completely out of the question?

the line you took you could easily have backed into a flush or slowplayed a boat or a five.

wouldn't he need a pretty strong hand to call you? from the way it played out isn't it pretty unlikely that he has a hand that strong?

I think this is a pretty bad spot to pull a bluff really, mainly because I am so clueless as to what his range is that I've no idea what % of better hands he bet/folds here, though I don't think it's that many, especially as I don't think he makes that big a bet with any medium strength hands that I could possibly get him to fold.

Also, his range is probably, although i don't like to use the word, polarized to bluffs and three of a kind+

well, thats kinda that then, when thats the case you check/call.