HORSE tourney. i havent had much to play since the opening rounds, but i have enough chips to make a run
villain in hand has been on some hot streak, but his roi is something like -50%

i dont remember all the dead cards, though i know there were several low cards out

folds to me,
RISE: 85 A
villain: xx Q, he calls

4th:
RISE 85 A6
villain xx Q4
he bets, I raise, he calls

5th:
RISE 85 A69
villain xx Q48
he leads, i raise, he makes it 3, i cap (i have about one bet left by now), he calls


i have a basic understanding of razz, better than most i like to think, but am i missing something?
on 4th he's drawing at a Q and me a 8, i have to be a favorite right?
by 5th he has a Q and draw to an 8, but I have a 9 and draw to an 8...although his draw may be better than mine.
but i am probably holding several cards he needs and several other lows are gone.
needless to say he catches a 6 for an 8-6 and i brick out with my 9-8

i ran some odds calculators and find im about 65/35 until 5th where im a slight favorite but we're flipping.

I probably call down 5th street on. He's not folding. I don't have a lock on this hand and it's a tournament, so my last few bets are pretty valuable.

You didn't say how far off of the bring in you were, but I'm guessing you were at best the only legit low door card..

In his mind that can discount the strength of your range significantly in his mind, allowing him to float 3rd and 4th.

On 5th, he's likely drawing to an eight perfect or something similar.. Between that and the fact that you caught a 9 and the 6 *possibly* might have paired you, he's more than willing to get the rest of your chips in the middle in a pot he's either close to flipping or even a favorite in.

But yes, his lead out on 4th was utterly horrible. All that could possibly accomplish is to fold out a complete bluff steal, which isn't a huge danger to him anyways. Even then, he'd be better off raising.

Hold on a second... exactly how is he first to act on 4th with Q4 if you have A6 showing?

Regardless, even if you were first to act and checked to him, his bet isn't a winning play by a long shot.