If we're playing against Haxton, what do we think his range is here?

If we're Haxton, what's our range here that we're willing to lead this?



PokerStars Game #17316093388: Hold'em No Limit ($25/$50) - 2008/05/09 - 18:29:39 (ET)
Table 'Tyche V' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: poopers ($13533 in chips)
Seat 2: compas11 ($1763 in chips)
Seat 3: pistache8888 ($2419 in chips)
Seat 4: SobraoBoY ($4950 in chips)
Seat 6: morello05 ($847 in chips)
Seat 7: ~diQ~ ($827 in chips)
Seat 9: philivey2694 ($5000 in chips)
pistache8888: posts small blind $25
SobraoBoY: posts big blind $50
Semifaded: sits out
KOLOKOS: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
morello05: folds
~diQ~: folds
philivey2694: raises $100 to $150
poopers: calls $150
compas11: calls $150
pistache8888: folds
SobraoBoY: folds
*** FLOP *** [Kd Ts Qs]
philivey2694: bets $300
poopers: calls $300
compas11: calls $300
*** TURN *** [Kd Ts Qs] [Jc]
philivey2694: bets $999

Judging by his bet sizing, i think he probably has the dummy end of the straight

First card: pick one of AKQJT9
Second card: pick one of AKQJT9

I think that's about his range.

He could be firing anything 2 pair+.

Clear betting tell. $999 always = 99.

If I"m playing, I think he flopped 2 pair and is bet/folding the turn.

If I'm him, I pot the flop or even overbet.

Any Ax (mainly AA/AK/AQ/AJ, less likely AT) and flush draws. It's going to be hard for someone to call with a 9, he has outs, and it's fairly unlikely poopers or compas has an A unless they have AQ/AT (AJ some of the time but almost certainly will AJ raise this drawy flop), so a barrel with a flush draw is probably going to be fairly profitable.

Edit: I also think it's very unlikely that he'd bet a 9 here into 2 people for value.

<3 EV