This is a 4.40

I've seen Villain play one hand in the orbit I've been here..He open limped J8 clubs in 2nd positon...4 or 5 way pot, flop is KQ10, 2 clubs and he checked after blind(s) checked...There was a guy who limped with 7 BBs on button and he shoved for just above a PSB and Villain called and caught..Now on to the hand

The turn is my main area of concern..Since we know he plays draws passively, what is our play here? We have barely less than a PSB, but KJ and a club draw just got there..However he could be floating with other crap, and we don't know how much of a station he is..I think it might be a stretch to say we are only called when beat, but his calling range should be more narrow now than it was before, with a lot of the hands beating us when we call...We are obv not bet/folding, so it becomes a question of checking/evaluating river, bet/calling, or shoving?

I'll put the river in later after replies

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

MP1 (t5550)
MP2 (t2225)
CO (t4805)
Hero (t2050)
SB (t2515)
BB (t4525)
UTG (t1655)
UTG+1 (t4155)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 3 , 3 .
5 folds, Hero raises to t300, 1 fold, BB calls t200.

Flop: (t650) Q , 3 , T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t400, BB calls t400.

Turn: (t1450) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero

Since you didnt do anything silly like limp in, I think you can discount draws somewhat, although he does have big enough to play a wide range hoping to stack you. Still, I think youre committed to this hand with a set. He probably has a ton of outs at this point, but there isnt anything you can do about it if hes intent on calling. Id bet 1/2 pot and get the rest in on the river.

with the pot at 1450 and your stack at 1350 on the turn I just shove to apply the max pressure on any draw - if he's made the str8 or flush he'll put you all-in on the river anyway. I don't like the 1/2 pot bet as that would leave you only 650 into a 2850 pot if he calls. So for me it's check it thru and fold to any bet on the river (leaves you 13.5BB to try and dbl up with) or get it all in on the Turn with 10 out to crush any flush/str8 as anything else he's got you have beat already (assuming he'd have re-r pf with QQ or TT). You are probably giving up some value (if he folds) here but that is a dangerous board to give a free card up to imo.

I was reading to Copper's answer and agree that there is no way we are getting away from the hand, we are committed. But I also agree with Aces and would just shove it all in now. We have about pot left, so take away his odds on calling.

1/2 pot charges him for the draw and makes it much easier to extract the rest of his stack on the river. Pushing lets him get away from a hand that we're committed to, essentially forcing him to play correctly by folding when we dont want him to.

You dont want to check the turn because if hes not drawing, a "cooler" could come and end your chances of getting any value out of the hand and you do want to charge him for the draw if he has one.

But that's also why I don't mind him getting away from his draw right now without extracting more value. I would prefer to pick it up now. That is an extremely drawy board with a possible club or another broadway hitting to complete a flush or a straight.

really terrible turn card, to be sure, because it not only completes draws but will probably kill action from any Q, but even still. you started the hand with 20 BBs and you flopped a set. i would just shove on the turn and hope a Q or T makes a crying call, which in a 4.40 isn't far-fetched at all. if he had a draw and got there, you still have a ~10 out redraw.

Lol I suck...I think running bad has affected my play recently and in a bit tougher decisions like these where I might have made the right one in the past, I went w/ the side of caution here..Blahh

River is not that interesting, 7 of dia he bet t300

If you make any case for anything but calling, go for it but it will be EXTREMELY tough to convince me thats correct

OK.... checking the turn would qualify as a mistake imo unless it was to ck-fold on the river. Only 300?? Pretty weak! Doesn't look like he has either a str8 or flush but senses you were afraid of that A on the turn and is going for a cheap steal or what he believes is the best hand with a pair of tens or Qs but doesn't like his kicker enough to make it a real value bet. Had it been a 1/2+pot bet you could have folded with min-regret and a stack at 1350!

Calling would be the conservative choice and I don't argue with it - it is possible the weak bet is a sucker bet from a flush/str8 looking for a re-raise all-in from you b/c it does look so weak. Calling still leaves you 10.5 bets if he's being tricky and a shot at making a comeback but I have a feeling your set is the best hand and your losing value by just calling - but a re-r would have to be all-in and should have been made on the Turn if you're willing to risk it all on the river! As played - play it safe and just call! I can't fold a set to bet of 300 and a pot of 1750.

As Zach said recently, and somewhat harshly, "you dont understand poker" .....if you play sets scared against a draw. Winning poker is about extracting value. The only excuse for not extracting value is if you are an underdog in the hand despite being +EV AND you are likely to have as good or better situation later. That is not the case against even 15 or 16 outers on the turn, especially in a tourney.

Unless you have good reason to believe you are behind already (and you dont on this hand), not attempting to extract value on the turn is a poker crime, and if you make a habit of it you just wont win many tournaments.

This

and its also criminal to give a free card to hand that would'nt call a bet on the turn that can beat you, for example a lone medium club. Your almost always ahead here and should just bet 3/4 pot or even shove if this player makes hero calls.

what makes us think we're still against a draw here, (on the turn), and not a made hand????

I remember this hand. I think you missed that turn bet because without it, you can't really define your hand.

As played, I agree with your reasoning on the river.

What made hands are you worried about that could call but not raise PF and would check/call the flop? The vast majority of them are Ax, and Ac is already on the board, so those flush draws are gone. The next most likely would be middle pairs, and if he checked TT against that board sobeit, we got outplayed on set over set. KcQc is possible and any KJ. So there are 17 made hands that beat us that are somewhat likely. Just AT+ gives 42 made hands that are on 4 outers. Add in the pairs and club connectors and the vast majority of his holdings are behind.

And of course when we are behind to anything but an over-set we have outs further reducing their threat.

My guess is that flopped sets vs. likely draws are the single most profitable hand in NLHE when stacks are reasonably deep and the draws are charged.