Hi i need opinions about this situation.

5+.5 18 players 5 left.
Prices are is 36,27,18,9

blinds 100/200 ante 25

Utg has 675 he folds 2 more folds
i'm sb with 2100 with KQ suited
BB has 10k

Logic to me says fold...

But what about the math, does moving all in has EV+?

The way i see it is:
if the bb calls with any hand, maybe i'll be 65% to win and if i double up it increseases my chance to win 36 or maybe 27.
It's also very likely that he folds...
What about a weak ace and he calls, then i have like 45 to win etc.

So can anybody tell me how does this work, or where can i read about calculating this?

If everyone started with 1500, then the other two players have 14K+ divided between them so even a double-up doesn't move you up a spot. I'd fold here on the bubble as the shortie will be in the blinds the next two hands. Make the money and then start to make your moves.

What are the other 2 stack sizes? I just plugged in some random ones so I could give you an answer.

If he's calling with 25% or less(22+, A2+, KTo+, K8s+, QTs+) then it's correct to shove.

From 23-25% its a neutral shove, so either way its not a mistake.

From 20-22%(22% being 33+, A3o+, A2s+, KJo+, KTs+, QJs) its only + .1% EV

So it depends on what his range is, personally I fold here, only shoving when I have 10BBs or less or a good hand obv

Actually this does not take enough into account. Once you have those ranges you would need to use ICM. Because we are talking about a bubble situation and not just your odds on winning the hand. It is going from zero cash equity to what you actually gain by winning or BB folding. You could increase your stack size but that could just change your cash equity in this tournament by a fraction of a percent. That's what you need to take into account, not just your odds of winning the hand.

Gobears has the right answer. But you would need all of the chip sizes (why he guessed) with given ranges to be more accurate. Look here:

http://www.chillin411.com/node/8

EDIT: Sorry, I guess you were using this. I just didn't pick up on it.

Fold and let UTG eat the blinds.

This is a pretty steep payout structure compared to a 50/30/20, so cEV and $EV are a bit closer together. I think the biggest factor here is that you have >10bbs and a very strong hand HU, so we arent necessarily looking for FE. Id min-raise to weed out the absolute junk and get it all in if BB plays back pre-flop. Evaluate the flop if he just calls.

I think the payouts are right on for a two table SNG.

But you are ready to get it in here if played back on by the BB? I don't understand. Is this a spot to get involved with the short stack coming into the blinds?

Here is the complete hand


PokerStars Game #17085520962: Tournament #86571984, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No
Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2008/04/29 - 17:53:08 (ET)
Table '86571984 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 2: nicehanddan (695 in chips)
Seat 4: Hutchinson12 (9070 in chips)
Seat 5: vandmand (3910 in chips)
Seat 6: siquinte (2035 in chips)
Seat 8: Les the Jock (11290 in chips)
nicehanddan: posts the ante 25
Hutchinson12: posts the ante 25
vandmand: posts the ante 25
siquinte: posts the ante 25
Les the Jock: posts the ante 25
siquinte: posts small blind 100
Les the Jock: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to siquinte [Qd Kd]
nicehanddan: folds
Hutchinson12: folds
vandmand: folds
siquinte: raises 1810 to 2010 and is all-in
Les the Jock: calls 1810
*** FLOP *** [3c 3h Ts]
*** TURN *** [3c 3h Ts] [Ah]
*** RIVER *** [3c 3h Ts Ah] [Td]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
siquinte: shows [Qd Kd] (two pair, Tens and Threes)
Les the Jock: shows [Ac 9c] (two pair, Aces and Tens)
Les the Jock collected 4145 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4145 | Rake 0
Board [3c 3h Ts Ah Td]
Seat 2: nicehanddan folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Hutchinson12 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: vandmand (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: siquinte (small blind) showed [Qd Kd] and lost with two pair, Tens and
Threes
Seat 8: Les the Jock (big blind) showed [Ac 9c] and won (4145) with two pair,
Aces and Tens


So i lost and felt like a jerk for a while, then i started thinking that maybe it wasn't a bad move in terms of cash EV so i wanna know

is anyone opposed to just completing the blind and hoping to hit a big flop? mucking safely if you mis and letting the shortie get it in next round?

Mmm, If he had 2200+ I think that would be a fine line.

I dont like just completing with such a strong hand. Im way ahead of his range and completing lets him see a free flop. I think min raise is a much better play. It would be interesting to see how villain would have acted PF with a middle Ace. If he lets you see the flop you can get away from it. If he plays back your cooked.

Short stack still has two sets of blinds and you have a big hand. Ill do the ICM later but I think pushing is better than folding, and with >10bs I dont push with a big hand, I think you can play it better than pure ICM.


Edit: SNGEGT has it as a marginal push, gaining .2% based on its "optimal" settings. A9 is obv a call in the optimal settings. That reaffirms my liking the minraise.

UTG has an M of about 2 and is in the blinds next hand. I don't see the point of tangling with the big stack here at all. With a stack his size a minraise is unlikely to scare him off, and may only invite him to pounce on what he might perceive as weakness. And I'm not interested in calling off the rest of my chips here. IMO...

Folding ---> Pushing -------------> anything else

not by ICM

Well, you may not be the shortie, but your not in great shape, either. Getting fourth is okay.......I guess. But, really, we're out to win, aren't we? And you need chips. If the 675 doubles up, you & him are at the same spot, after the blinds pass you. So, going all-in, isn't so bad. You needed to make a move, and you had a strong hand. Problem with all-in, in the SB, is that everyone will think you're stealing (especially at $5 buy-in). I like raising to 500. If you get called, you can get out if you miss the flop. If he pushes back, you can bail, hoping the shortie gets cooked.

The only time you fold here, is to show some tightness, and then push all-in on the very next hand. Regardless of hole cards.

Except for the "were out to win, arent we" I agree with most of the above. A 2 table tourney you are still probably more focused on cashing than winning, but as you point out, cashing isnt that straightforward with these stacks. Thats why ICM has push>fold, but not by much.

I like min raising slightly better than 500, because it gives a little more FE on the flop, but NBD.

What's the plan on the flop if he doesn't fold to the minraise? Are we basically pulling a go-n-go here? Because 99% of BB's in this situation are calling the minraise with 10k chips here.

Or are we hoping that the minraise entices him to put us all in? I'm just not clear on exactly what we are trying to accomplish with the minraise, and what our plan is when he doesn't fold.

Id fold to pf aggression, theres still plenty of time. Id probe bet a non A K or Q flop, bet out with TP. What you are accomplishing with the min-raise is folding out absolute junk and slowing him down on the flop if he hits 2d or bottom pair.

if this was a MTT I would shove, with the pay outs call and try to take a flop.