Villain is around 14/12/2 over moderate number of hands. Haven't seen him get out of line before.

I played this hand against the same villain not to far before in the session:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

BB ($153.40)
Hero ($176.75)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q , Q .
Hero raises to $3.5, 3 folds, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $7.50.

Flop: ($23.50) A , Q , 6 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14, BB calls $14.

Turn: ($51.50) 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $32, BB folds.

Final Pot: $51.50


Then the hand in question:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FCP)

CO ($127.90)
Hero ($197.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q , Q .
UTG raises to $3.5, 1 fold, CO raises to $12, Hero calls $12, 2 folds, UTG folds.

Flop: ($29) J , 7 , 6 (2 players)
CO bets $10, Hero calls $10.

Turn: ($49) 7 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $31, CO raises to $62, Hero ????

I immediately regretted the turn bet. I didn't have either a good reason for it or a good plan for what to do when facing a raise. I was reluctant to check behind here though since villain could have the flush draw or AK and I'm not sure I want to give a free card. I don't think he plays AA or KK this way - he'd either lead the turn or check/call. Really I'm only behind JJ then and racing with a hand like AsKs though I'm not sure AsKs plays it like this once the board pairs. Thoughts on the hand to this point and what do we do now?

Flat and see what he does on the river

Check the stack sizes. Villain has 43 left after the c/r. If we flat there's 160 in the pot. I think this is fold or shove.

Turn is an insta snapfold.

EDIT: I don't like betting the turn either.

EDIT2: Villain has JJ about 95% of the time here.

I don't think we can conclude too much from hand one other than the villain prob had JJ or KK TT whatever. I doubt he folded an ace that he made that PF raise with.

So. On to the second hand. If he's 14/12/2 I don't think he's making this move PF with AJ. Every other hand I can think of that he shows up with here has us in trouble (except the unlikely QQ). EDIT: AK spades might. I HATE HATE HATE folding here, and I'd probably shove if I only have a couple seconds to think about it. But with those stats, I don't think he's getting showing up OR getting frisky with AJ KJ QJ TT.

That being said, I picked off three min-raise bluffs playing live the other night. But they were loose players. "WTF min-raise bluff?" you say? Believe it. I think it happens like this: villain gets pot-stuck with garbage and wants to bluff, but when he looks at his stack and the bet in front of him, he can't 3x the bet, so he min-raises it to save his chips.

I don't think this is a min-raise bluff.

Except when he checks and the river is a spade?

Or an A or a K.


I wasn't trying to imply that the first hand was a lot like the 2nd. I only mention it because:
1) villain had 3bet before with something other than AA or AK (in <50 hands)
2) I had taken a 3bet pot from villain and wondered if there was a bit of personal vendetta at play here.

If villain has spades, it is precisely AsKs. He would bet bigger on the flop with that hand though, and he would not check/minraise the turn.

obv

but i'm talking about a point in the hand where we have 0 idea he's going to minraise

Ya, sorry, I meant that to mean primarily that I don't expect him to check the turn. I think spades are a problem <1% of the time overall.

Right, on the flop. I have a question. If we raise the flop, are we folding out all the hands in his range that we get value from? I am guessing his range is something like TT+ and AQ+. What is the benefit of flatting vs. raising?

My initial reaction was to raise it, but after thinking about it I think it's practically impossible to get any value from our hand by raising. Am I correct?

In terms of the hand in general, I agree with Simo 100% that this is jacks almost all of the time.

A bet like this is typically either a blocking bet from a drawing hand or a "please raise me" weak lead from a monster. If his range is TT+ AQ+, he can't be making a blocking bet with AQs since we have the Qs, also since he is waking up on the board pairing it is unlikely he is doing this with AKs. Factor in that there are three times as many combinations of JJ as there are AsKs it is pretty obvious that the only hand in his range that takes this line is jacks.

Fold.

I took the weak lead on the flop to be AK - he 3-bet and feels compelled to follow up but doesn't think his hand is good - or JJ trying to induce a raise from QQ or KK. I see zero value in raising the flop - we're getting called by hands that beat us and folding out hands we beat. I figure the turn will be more telling. He's likely to slow down with AK, TT.

I think instead of leading the turn the better line would be to check behind on the turn and then call a reasonable river bet or value bet if he checks a blank. At the time I figured betting the turn would protect a bit against AK and spades hands and because he's so nitty has a tiny chance of folding out KK or AA (fearing I had the JJ) or at the very least shutting them down.

This is where I get pissed off at the world, shove the rest in, and puke my guts up when he shows me the exact JJ that I thought he had. Does that make me a bad player? lol

Maybe, maybe not. I folded and hated it since I'm really only behind to exactly one hand. Villain didn't show but claimed in chat that he had 99. I don't really believe that since as we kept playing his stats got even nittier and I never saw him make a move.

I'm definatley raising the weak flop bet ...if he comes back over the top then I'll probably let it go, i don't think he has JJ here, I'm guessing KK, either way you aren't beating much and folding probably our best option, but it's close!

Raise the flop. Your flop and or turn decisions would be much easier.

I like this analysis. One question I have though is what hand in his range value bets the river that we beat? Do you think if you check behind on the turn you can pick off a few bluffs from hands like AK/TT?

If you fold pre-flop your decisions are even easier.