Hero (SB) ~ $900
Fish (UTG) ~ $250
Playing 8 handed 1/3NL
Pick up 66 in the SB. Fish is UTG and limps for $3, 2 folds, 2 more calls to me.
I raise it to $18, UTG (fish) calls. 1 call, 1 fold.
3 players to the flop
Flop comes 8d9d3h
Figuring that flop couldn't have hit anyone, I lead out for $30
Fish looks confused and says "I have a lot of outs, I got a ton of outs." Fish announces all-in for $200 more. Other guy folds, back to Hero who......?
Full Version: Thought He Was A Fish
QUOTE (NonZeroPossibility @ Friday, April 4th, 2008, 10:56 AM) 
.... Other guy folds, back to Hero who......?
...decides to not go broke with the underpair and folds.
You need to pay 200 to win roughly 270?
Villain might
a.) be telling the truth and be on a monster draw, probably not knowing that his two overs are outs too and you are a marginal favorite.
-> generall question here: do you make those marginal calls for a whole stack? In the long run it'll have a positive expectation... but in the short-run i feel it's very frustrating to miss.
b.) be lying and have just flopped it... set of eights... or any overpair where you are basically drawing to little or no outs.
I fold too much... but is my reasoning correct here?
QUOTE (NonZeroPossibility @ Friday, April 4th, 2008, 10:56 AM)
3 players to the flop
Flop comes 8d9d3h
Figuring that flop couldn't have hit anyone, I lead out for $30
Flop comes 8d9d3h
Figuring that flop couldn't have hit anyone, I lead out for $30
Firstly, that flop hits a lot of hands in a lot of different ways.
Secondly, why are you betting half pot? Bet like a man. If you're betting here, bet $45.
QUOTE (NonZeroPossibility @ Friday, April 4th, 2008, 10:56 AM)
Fish looks confused and says "I have a lot of outs, I got a ton of outs." Fish announces all-in for $200 more. Other guy folds, back to Hero who......?
Snap folds. With that speech he can't expect you to fold. He can't realistically be bluffing. So, he has a made hand, where you have 2 outs, or he has a draw.
CODE
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.293% 54.29% 00.00% 3225 0.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 45.707% 45.71% 00.00% 2715 0.00 { Ad2d }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.000% 45.00% 00.00% 2673 0.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 55.000% 55.00% 00.00% 3267 0.00 { AdTd }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.505% 45.51% 00.00% 2703 0.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 54.495% 54.49% 00.00% 3237 0.00 { JdTh }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.727% 37.73% 00.00% 2241 0.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 62.273% 62.27% 00.00% 3699 0.00 { QdJd }
Hand 0: 54.293% 54.29% 00.00% 3225 0.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 45.707% 45.71% 00.00% 2715 0.00 { Ad2d }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.000% 45.00% 00.00% 2673 0.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 55.000% 55.00% 00.00% 3267 0.00 { AdTd }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.505% 45.51% 00.00% 2703 0.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 54.495% 54.49% 00.00% 3237 0.00 { JdTh }
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.727% 37.73% 00.00% 2241 0.00 { 66 }
Hand 1: 62.273% 62.27% 00.00% 3699 0.00 { QdJd }
In general, you're either 45% or you are dead.
QUOTE (NonZeroPossibility @ Friday, April 4th, 2008, 1:56 AM)
back to Hero who......?
... looks confused and says to self, "just remember who the fish is and it'll all be OK ... "
Um...fold. I probably don't waste my money raising 66 from OOP preflop anyways. If you are going to a bet of $30 on the flop screams weak, and it's another waste of money. Gotta go $40 to $45 as already stated. His speach seems a little shady too so 66 just doesn't seem like fun anymore.
QUOTE (simo_8ball @ Friday, April 4th, 2008, 4:28 AM)
In general, you're either 45% or you are dead.
You should've thrown in another one in there where he turns over T9o or something and the hero is drawing to 2 outs. Hell, even 67o is drawing to 11 outs.
How is this anything but the snappiest of snap folds?
I wouldn't have raised 66 from the sb in a low limit live game. There's really no point when you have almost 0% chance of taking the pot preflop, or even getting heads up. Plus there's really no need to raise when you can just pay half a blind more and try to hit a set. You'll get paid off when you do.
QUOTE (SCS @ Friday, April 4th, 2008, 10:10 AM)
I wouldn't have raised 66 from the sb in a low limit live game. There's really no point when you have almost 0% chance of taking the pot preflop, or even getting heads up. Plus there's really no need to raise when you can just pay half a blind more and try to hit a set. You'll get paid off when you do.
Usually I wouldn't but I had such a TAG image at that point, I was pretty sure everyone would think I had a big pp. I was up about $700 and had only shown down like 3 hands in 4 hours.
This guy was so bad though.... One hand, he had the AK in a hu pot, flop was something like K87 rainbow. He bets $15 on the flop, gets called, turn is blank, he bets $15, gets called and river is a blank, he bets $15. Like WTF?
I really believed he had either JT or a flush draw and my reads on him had been spot on since he sat down. I did not know what the hell to do.
QUOTE (NonZeroPossibility @ Friday, April 4th, 2008, 11:33 AM)
I really believed he had either JT or a flush draw and my reads on him had been spot on since he sat down. I did not know what the hell to do.
You fold. If he's got those hands, he's still a favorite over yours. If he's got any pair like 9x or 8x, you're drawing to 2 outs.
This is not the spot to make a hero call.
Indeed ^
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