rvrchsrhtr
Wednesday, December 17th, 2008, 12:03 PM
QUOTE (jmbreslin @ Wednesday, December 17th, 2008, 10:42 AM)

1) Even at this level of competition you can't assume that AKxx and A2xx are dying to go to the river.
2) Lows and flush draws aren't going to fold, which means you're juicing the pot and giving them much better pot odds to call a bet on the turn if they miss. And you're not really charging them anything because they're already getting great pot odds on the flop.
I agree Hero most likely has the best hand on the flop but he has to dodge a lot of cards on the trip to the river to stay on top. In a multi-way pot Hero will most likely end up splitting with a low, and possibly losing to a better high. What's wrong with checking with the hopes that it gets checked through, and then betting a brick on the turn? That way you greatly reduce the pot odds on the turn for low and flush draws.
I agree with you on point one (sometimes you get called down light and some times you don't. As frequently as I bet I tend to be on the lighter call down side, but not even close to always)
I am "not" worried about the variance too much, if I were I could see your line as an option. I "am" trying to get the most
value I can out of my hands and again I think there is a lot to be gained by betting out and using your opponents reaction to narrow their range of hands. Another reason to not just check it anyone who had a weak hand who might not have called a bet on the flop might pick up additional outs on the turn