Game 7 against the nefarious Brits. Do you start Edmonton goalies (against Colorado), or Vancouver goalies, which likely won't be Luongo (against Minnesota).

In all honesty, you might end up with a better score going with no goalies at all.

Yikes. That's rough, specifically about Luongo.

Is Sanford that bad? Minnesota is low scoring, aren't they?

Colorado/Edmonton is going to be wide open.

Vancouver vs minesota and its not even close imo

Sanford and Minnesota are both fantasy toss ups. You can never be even 50% sure of what you're going to get on any given night. You could see a shutout from Sanford just as easily as you could see him get lit up for 7, the same way that Minnesota could get shut out just as easily as Gaborik could explode with a 4 goal night en route to a blowout. Just depends on which version shows up at gametime.

No way he can start Edmonton, Colorado is fighting for their lives and putting big scores on the board lately. I wouldn't be surprised to see both teams score more than 5 goals in that game.

Vancouver is really the only choice, and I'm not betraying Ollie by telling Rich something he already knows. I'd have to say it's a toss up between starting the Sandman and just benching both sets of goalies for the night.

Pavelski or Bertuzzi?

Pavelski - 3g4a in his last 10 games.
Bert - 1g4a in his last 10 games.

My opponent has Thornton, and IMO, the only way he can win is if Thornton has a big game. Do i dress Pavelski to balance off his pp points?

I think both are easy calls, but then again, I'm not the one in game 7.

Definetly go with Sanford. For the most part, Minny doesn't put up a lot of goals. Picking Edm goalies, esp against Colorado, is suicide these days. Hope Vancouver goes into team shutdown mode (which I think they will for such a big game) and hope for the 2-1 score to come.

And based on what I have seen last few games, definetly go with Pavelski. He is getting lots of ice time, and is playing 2nd line min with Marleau and prime PP time with Joe T. With the injury to Cheechoo, assuming he is out again Fri night, I'd go with Pavelski.
Bertuzzi for the most part looks lost out there. He would need help from linemates, Getzlaf being hurt doesnt help him. Play the hot hand I say.

Especially if you got the roster advantage and Thornton is one of his only outs.

My vote is Pavelski+Van.

Are we talking about the same Joe Thornton who has 6 goals and 7 points in his last 3? He's having no shortage of big games lately.

It's rough that you guys are playing a Game 7 on an 8 game Friday night, although Saturday night is only 8 games this week so I guess it really doesn't matter that much.

This is what I did, with similar logic.

I have no faith in Sanford, and Vancouver's D has been god awful lately. That being said, Colorado vs Edm will be a gong show, and Luongo has a shot at making it home.

I am interested in all opinions in such a big game.

I can feel big game Joe Pavelski getting me the win right now.

Game 7 projections:

Forwards:

1 vs 1 - Joe Thornton (26-65-91 vs Anaheim) vs Daniel Briere (30-39-69 vs New Jersey)

Thornton is extremely hot right now (6 goals in his last 3 games), but San Jose is up against a Ducks team that hasn't allowed more than 2 goals against in their last six games. Briere is riding a 4 game point streak (4 goals in his last 3, and 7 points in his last 4 games), but is shooting against Martin Brodeur who has a 2.16GAA (although he got lit up pretty good against Pittsburgh two games ago). Neither player has enjoyed true domination against their respective opponents so far this season, so it's tough to predict who will have the better night tonight. Thornton gets the nod based on his current 3 game scoring streak (with a 2 game multigoal streak) and the 22 point gap between he and Briere.

Advantage - Joe Thornton (Blindsides)

2 vs 2 - Marian Gaborik (38-38-76 vs Vancouver) vs Daniel Sedin (29-43-72 vs Minnesota)

After a very long drought on the scoresheet, Daniel Sedin has turned the jets on of late, he's riding a 5 game point streak during which he's put 7 points on the board. Sedin is also riding a 2 game scoring streak with tallies against Colorado and Calgary. On the other side of the coin is the always dangerous Marian Gaborik, who holds the significant advantage of gaining an extra half goal on any points scored (due to the fact that he's playing against Vancouver, the presumptive starting goalies for the Wheat Ales). Gaborik has been fairly "off and on" lately, he'll have a good game one night and then be held off the scoresheet the next (the pattern for his last six games). This battle is too close to call, with Sedin's heater being offset by Gaborik's half-goal per point advantage.

Advantage - None

3 vs 3 - JP Dumont (28-40-68 vs Columbus) vs Jason Arnott (28-43-71 vs Columbus)

The Wheat Ales hold a significant advantage here, as both forwards are shooting against Columbus' goaltending, meaning any points for Dumont count as an extra half for the Ales, and any points for Arnott count as -0.5. Dumont has the added advantage of being on a 4 game point streak (5 points in those 4 games) although Arnott had a good showing in his last game (vs Columbus) with a goal and an assist. Arnott is currently riding a 2 game scoring streak, and needs to put up some goals to have any positive effect on the score in this FCHL battle.

Advantage - JP Dumont (Wheat Ales)

4 vs 4 - Patrik Elias (19-32-51 vs Philadelphia) vs Peter Forsberg (0-6-6 vs Edmonton)

Patrik Elias has effectively owned Philadelphia's goaltending in 2008, scoring 5 points in his last two games against the Flyers. Peter Forsberg had an excellent showing in his last outing, putting 3 assists on the board against a generally stingy Vancouver Canucks team. I would expect both players to put big numbers on the board in tonight's games, but effectively wash each other's production out in the process. Too close to call here.

Advantage - None

5 vs 5 - Pavol Demitra (15-33-48 vs Vancouver) vs Paul Kariya (15-42-57 vs Detroit)

Both forwards are having fairly underwhelming seasons by their own standards, Demitra has battled the injury bug all year and Kariya is still adapting to new surroundings as the elder statesman in St. Louis. Demitra was not expected to play in his last outing against Edmonton, in which he was generally nonthreatening with only 1 shot on goal and no points. Kariya is currently riding a 3 game pointless streak, including his last game against tonight's opponent, Detroit. Paul Kariya gets the advantage based on the fact that he has 9 more points on the season than Demitra and is healthy, combined with the fact that Demitra is shooting against his own FCHL goalies which will nullify any assists and count any goals as +0.5.

Advantage - Paul Kariya (Blindsides)

6 vs 6 - Maxim Afinogenov (10-17-27 vs Montreal) vs Joe Pavelski (18-17-35 vs Anaheim)

A minor battle here between two players who don't see very much ice time for their respective FCHL squads. Neither GM would choose these players if there was a much better option available, but on an 8 game NHL night you take what you can get and hope for the best. Pavelski has been scoring with decent consistency lately, putting up PPG numbers over his last 6 games. On the other side of that coin, Afinogenov has been the model of inconsistency this season, looking brilliant in stretches and lackluster in others. The good news for the Blindsides is that Max has been playing some fairly inspired hockey of late, with 2 points in his last two games against the bain of the Sabres' existence, the Ottawa Senators. Neither player can claim any great success vs their respective opponents this season (2 points against Montreal for Max, 2 points vs Anaheim for Joe), so Pavelski gets the nod in this matchup based on his current point scoring successes and the strength of his 8 additional goals so far this season.

Advantage - Joe Pavelski (Wheat Ales)

Defensemen:

1 vs 1 - Andrei Markov (16-41-57 vs Buffalo) vs Mark Streit (12-43-55 vs Buffalo)

The Montreal Canadiens are blessed with two high-scoring stud defensemen in Andrei Markov and Mark Streit, and tonight their skills will be put to the test on opposite ends of the ice. This matchup is anyone's guess (both players have three points in their last three games), but whichever FCHL team wins it will have a major advantage in the game. Way too close to call, but this is the matchup to watch tonight.

Advantage - None

2 vs 2 - Marek Zidlicky (5-37-42 vs Columbus) vs Ryan Suter (7-21-28 vs Columbus)

Who could have guessed when the NHL and FCHL schedules were drawn up that there would be so much intersquad drama in Game 7 of the semifinals? Another matchup pitting brother against brother, so to speak, with both players facing off against the starting goaltending of the Blindsides (Columbus). Both players are in the pits of despair from a fantasy standpoint, Suter is riding a 10 game pointless streak and Zidlicky only has 3 points in his last 12 games. The advantage goes to Zidlicky as Suter is shooting at his own net, but the smart money is on this matchup being a total wash.

Advantage - Marek Zidlicky (Wheat Ales)

3 vs 3 - Matt Carle (2-12-14 vs Anaheim) vs Joe Corvo (12-31-43 vs Atlanta)

I probably don't need to spend very much time explaining why this is matchup is a massive advantage for the Wheat Ales. Corvo has beeing playing excellent hockey of late, putting 11 points on the board so far in the month of March. Matt Carle has been battling the injury bug all season, and when he has played, he hasn't played all that well. It's 50/50 whether Carle will play tonight against Anaheim, but as he's only scored a single assist in his last 18 games and hasn't registered a single point against the Ducks all year, it probably doesn't matter much either way.

Advantage - Joe Corvo (Wheat Ales)

4 vs 4 - Randy Jones vs TheEmptyRosterSpotofDoom

This matchup is almost a 100% washout, as Randy Jones is injured and the Blindsides don't have anyone playing tonight to plug into the #4 Defenseman spot. (*See Note Below)

Advantage - Wheat Ales (since it's *possible* that Jones will play in this game, but unlikely)

Goaltending:

Vancouver (Curtis Sanford 4-3-1 w/ .902 SV% and 2.74 GAA) vs Columbus (Fredrik Norrena 10-17-5 w/ .897 SV% and 2.70 GAA)

So often in the FCHL, the game comes down to the goalies, and tonight's contest is no exception to that rule. Both teams are expected to ice their backup goalie tonight, and that's where things get tricky for Vancouver. Curtis Sanford doesn't play very much, and there's two good reasons for that, he's not very good, and Roberto Luongo is. Fredrik Norrena is a very capable goaltender, but isn't the first choice on a Columbus team that doesn't have one at the moment. Pascal Leclaire *could* play tonight but the current expectation is to see Norrena as the backstop for Columbus. This isn't such a bad thing, as Norrena shut out a very offensively minded Chicago Blackhawks team in his last outing, one of two shutouts he's posted this season.

Advantage - Columbus (Blindsides)

Final Tallies:

Forwards - Even
Defense - Advantage Wheat Ales
Goaltending - Advantage Blindsides

It's only fitting that an FCHL Game 7 should be so evenly matched that it's too close to call, and this one fits that mold perfectly. The big NHL games tonight are obviously Minnesota vs Vancouver, Nashville vs Columbus, and Montreal vs Buffalo. Whomever gains the advantage with their players in those three games will win and move on to the FCHL Finals vs Newmarket Hurricanes.

Good luck to both teams, and congratulations to Ollie and Rich on an outstanding season and playoff campaign thusfar.


*Edit* I made a mistake with the defensive matchups, the Blindsides actually have Erik Johnson to slot into the #3 spot. This helps make up a lot of ground for the Blindsides, as Matt Carle shifts down to the #4 spot where he's running unopposed (although he still isn't much of a scoring threat this season). It's still defensive advantage Wheat Ales, but not by the wide margin it was before.

you pretty much hit the nail right on the head with your analysis adam, great job. i gotta admit, i did chuckle when munro said thornton was pretty much my only out. looking at the matchup its pretty much a coin flip i feel and it feel will come down to luck on this occasion. that game 5 6.0 - 6.0 overtime loss could prove to be the pivotal moment .

for what its worth both munro and i would have been in game 7 against every team at this point. in that sense jay got lucky with the matchup to face mlp and mlp got unlucky. if we had swapped opponents we'd have had 2 game 7s.

some season stats:

Blindsides - 41-34-3 85 gf 255 ga 207
SWA - 43-34-1 87 gf 230.5 ga 211.5

season series : 3-3-0 blindsides 18.0 swa 20.0

playoff stats:

3-3-0

blindsides gf 25.0
swa gf 18.5

1) About me being a favourite: If you say it enough, it comes true.
2) About the gf difference: The Ales had two empty net games where we were a combined -0.5m and have had 3 games where we have LAID THE HAMMER DOWN.

Anyone have any word on Spacek? I would love to dress him over Randy Jones.

our combined score in the 3 games where we laid the hammer down was better than you combined score

Roberto Luongo will probably be back in Vancouver in time to start tonight. He flew to Florida to be with his wife and newborn baby, but is expected back in time to face the Wild.

sssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

It's the way the FCHL goes sometimes, or even the AHL i'm sure. In a short playoff tournament like this, with teams so evenly matched, anyone can win. I just never thought Id lose 4 straight games. Ever.

However, Im guaranteeing my guys come out on fire tonight. Once the games don't count, they Maple Leaf it up a notch.

tonights high scoring, non-playing lineup
Kovalev
Tkachuk
MKoivu
Naslund
Marleau
Selanne

Rafalski
SNiedermayer
Schneider
Hamhuis

SJ gtd

(yeah, im still in denial over my elimination)
hmm, come to think of it, Jay's game7 lineup would have smoked me. He does have E.Staal.

good luck in game 7 guys. May the better team win, but I have no idea who that is. I'm with Adam, this looks like a pretty even matchup.

I don't believe in running the score up. Target 4 games you can win, and score enough to win. This isn't a roto pool.

f that, score as much as possible always - much more fun and classless!

The Ales are the class of the FCHL. What a team. Wow.

Ollie, let's make this interesting.

You owe me 10 bucks. Let's put that on the line. 20 or nothing on tonights game.

If you want to accept for 10, just post it. I have to roll.

It's not interesting enough?

And for the record, here is who the boys went with:

Shaftsbury Wheat Ales

Daniel Briere
Daniel Sedin
Pavol Demitra
Jean-Pierre Dumont
Joe Pavelski
Peter Forsberg
Marek Zidlicky
Joseph Corvo
Randy Jones
Mark Streit

Vancouver Canucks


Blindsides

Marian Gaborik
Patrik Elias
Jason Arnott
Maxim Afinogenov
Paul Kariya
Joe Thornton
Andrei Markov
Erik Johnson
Matthew Carle
Ryan Suter

Columbus Blue Jackets

I am a Joe Corvo fan. He always tosses in at least an assist in any big game. What an athlete.

Good battle so far. Rich jumped out to a quick 3 to 0.5 lead on the strength of Joe Corvo, but Ollie has fought back and currently holds a 2.5 - 2.0 lead

lol, a Randy Jones goal gives Rich a 3 to 2.5 lead

well if ever i needed big joe to be huge, it would be now.

just got in and i am down by 1.5 apparently. pretty sick finish to the year. randy f'ing jones.

urgh, both munro and i would have won 7 game series against the other 2 teams. i hate fantasy hockey.

I don't think so Ollie. Not to rub in whats looking like a tough loss for you with what could have been.....but actually my current score based on the what-if roster in this thread is 6.5. Beats you, tied with Rich for now, and i still have ANA-SJ playing.

The scores your looking at in the FCHL site are not based on our A lineup, only on our defaults I think.

WheatAles continue their historic run with a 7-4 victory in game 7. There were a lot of heroes. Corvo, Forsberg, Jones. Just a fantastic team.

ah, i wasnt aware of that arp - that's fair enough.

good series munro, that 6.0-6.0 OT Loss was the heartbreaker.

gl to the 2 of you in the finals.