copernicus
Monday, March 24th, 2008, 12:57 PM
QUOTE (rog @ Monday, March 24th, 2008, 1:07 PM)

I thought about a turn check, but bet it for three reasons:
1) It checked to me again.
2) A turn check pretty much gives my hand away, inviting villain to "bet to win" on the river.
3) Free card to the club draw.
So why is this a turn check, and if we check the turn, are we giving up on the hand? If not, how much are we calling on the river?
I check the turn primarily for pot control. With your bet villain may well have implied odds to call. He only needs to pick up 300 or so when he hits, so your bet doesnt solve #3 so unless youre giving up the hand to a flush card.
What is the cost of the free card if youre willing to give up the hand to any club? Its about 20% of 440...the current pot plus what you can get him to call the turn for but fold the river when he misses, or about 90 chips.
I agree somewhat with #2..there is the potential for him to steal. However, most players who are awake enough to steal to a blank on the river are going to semi-bluff the turn, and he didnt. The A falling after you led the flop is a perfect semi-bluff card. For you to believe a river bet to a blank card you have to put him on an A that didnt try and protect against the flush or had hoped for a check-raise. So yes, there is some risk of a naked bluff that you would fold to, but not a huge one. Also building the pot on the turn gives him more incentive to try and steal the river if a flush card hits that he really wasnt looking for.