Full Tilt Poker Game #5700155905: Table Stanley (6 max) - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:27:35 ET - 2008/03/19
Seat 1: RichardMcBeef90 ($10)
Seat 2: FoOoLd_It ($10.50)
Seat 3: Djamieson17 ($6.80)
Seat 4: GCODE00 ($10)
Seat 5: bendit king ($9.20)
Seat 6: Tecra9000 ($5.30)
FoOoLd_It posts the small blind of $0.05
Djamieson17 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RichardMcBeef90 [Qc Qs]
GCODE00 folds
bendit king calls $0.10
Tecra9000 folds
RichardMcBeef90 raises to $0.45
FoOoLd_It folds
Djamieson17 calls $0.35
bendit king folds
*** FLOP *** [4d 3d 7s]
Djamieson17 checks
RichardMcBeef90 bets $0.65
Djamieson17 calls $0.65
*** TURN *** [4d 3d 7s] [Kd]
Djamieson17 bets $1.10
RichardMcBeef90 has 15 seconds left to act
RichardMcBeef90 has requested TIME
RichardMcBeef90 calls $1.10
*** RIVER *** [4d 3d 7s Kd] [Tc]
Djamieson17 bets $2.10
RichardMcBeef90 has 15 seconds left to act
RichardMcBeef90 ?

FTR hates me and messes up every single HH i post for some reason (does anyone else have this problem?) so here's the hand in all it's unconverted glory.

Villain is 66/17 over 55 hands, seems rather spazzy so far but nothing i an paticulary note about him yet.

Debates on calling the river and/or turn play.

Bet more on the flop.

Call/Call is fine given read on villain and his small bet sizing.

Unless this guy is a donk, you are very obviously beaten. Turn call is fine. But your opponent called a pf raise oop. There is a flush out, a straight out, an overcard that started your opponent betting oop and he is still betting even on the river. And his bet looks like a value bet. You are beat. Fold and save the $2 for another hand.

The problem is, most 10NL players wouldn't donk bet a made hand on the turn when an obvious scare card hits... the better ones would check raise and the average one would c-c and wake up on the river...the only hand this line makes sense for is some weird ass 2 pair with a king involved... or perhaps if he's really spewy the flopped nuts. I don't mind calling this down terribly.

If the king hits them, some good players will check raise and some will bet. Both are decent plays.

I just think a call by the hero is -EV here. Do you really think the opponent calls a pf raise, a flop bet and then bets out on the turn and bets the river all from out of position and he has something less than a pair of kings? Let's say it happens 20% of the time which I think is generous. So, heros odds of winning are are 4 to 1 and pot is offering about 3 to 1 for calling the river bet. So you really need to think you can beat him 25% of the time (3 to 1) in order to make the call. I just don't see it given the action. Now if the guy is a donk and you know it, then its a very obvious call, otherwise I think the best play is a fold, albeit we are talking a thin line here.

Put yourself in the villians shoes. Given the action and the board, How many times would you play this way if you had less than a pair of kings?

Here's the problem though. It's irrelevant how we would have played it had we been in villain's shoes; it's only important what the villain was really thinking. If villain was Canute, Acid_knight, etc... any one of us... it might be a clearer fold. But against a terrible player that plays kinda spewish, it's a tougher decision.

Yes, of course you are right. And you are helping me to gel my thought process here. I did say something to the effect that if he is a donk it is an easy call. You only have to be ahead 25% of the time after all in order to break even on the call. So realistically a fold or call is really a toss up and we can only make the final decision based on what we know about our opponent. If he is good, its an easy fold. If he is prone to bluff or a donk, its an easy call. You might decide to call and I might decide to fold and I think both decisions can be right depending on the opponent. If I don't know my opponent, I try to always assume they are good and so for a good or unknown opponent I am folding.

I'm trying to figure out what spazzy villain plays like this that we beat. The most plausible hands are ace-rag (paired or straight draw) with the ace of diamonds. Some middle-ish pocket pairs with a diamond could be in there. He's rarely got "just a king" here, so we shouldn't have fear of it being an overcard. I think most villains (even spazzy ones) are going to fold K7/K4/K3 pre, so we shouldn't be worried about him having turned two pair. Occasionally, a flopped set, two pair, or straight will take this line...attempting to slowplay the flop and then donking the turn when the board starts getting more dangerous. Flush is quite possible also.

I know our notes are light, but have we ever seen villain donkbet in any other situations? If villains like the play, they frequently overemploy it...so you can usually get a feel for what it means.

Additionally, the river is quite tame and probably doesn't change anything. As uneasy as I am about it, I think once we call the turn, we should probably call the river. I think there's probably enough doubt about villain's holding to make that a reasonable approach.

Ding ding, i called and he flipped over A5 of clubs. The last paragraph is one of the main reasons i called the river here, i felt like it'd be a waste of a turn call if i'm folding to an innocuous river when he's likely to be betting most of his range on the river with either a bluff or a strong hand. I labeled him as a donk after this hand but throughout the session he didn't do anything that i noticed that was this dumb.

Agreed, I always have a default view of my opponent as good. If it's live though, I start stereotyping a little. Like, young dudes with baseball caps feel like they can play super tricky aggressive. Quiet businessmen types tend to be tight passive.

With the situation at hand, we have the stats to base our move on, i.e. "Villain is 66/17 over 55 hands, seems rather spazzy so far"

Yeah, boy 66 is super loose. If I see someone with a 66, I start to think fish. After thinking about this some more, I suppose there are quite a few hands the villian could be trying this with that we might beat. Things like JJ and something with a seven in it, or just air... etc. So, call or fold? Both are good.... I think I am changing over to calling as the best choice. because the villian is a donk and the river bet is so small.

Good analysis, I pretty much agree with. I am actually changing my opinion over to call on this hand. I do think the villian could easily hold a king. KT, KQ, KJ are all candidates. As loose as the guy is with a seeing 67% of the flops, he may even be there with K7s.