1/2 NL

hero - 280
UTG 200
villain 400


both villains are drunk, UTG sucks and villain with 400 has been talking about how he plays 5-10nl and that this game is a joke.

hero is BB with 10,8


UTG raise to 5, 2 calls, villain call. button fold. sb call. hero call.


flop (30)

10s,9c,8h rainbow.

sb check, hero bet 20. UTG call. 2 folds, villain call, sb fold.


turn (90)
7d still rainbow

hero check, UTG bet 30, villain call 30. hero?


Can anyone justify the implied odds for this hand to make a call to hit a 4 outer? or does everyone feel its a standard fold?

Using rough math, we're about a 10:1 dog to improve so we'd need to win $300 to break even when calling $30. There's already $150 in the pot, but UTG has less than $150 left. We'd have to expect to get something out of the other villain plus always stack UTG when you hit. I think that's optimistic.

Assuming we fold on the river unimproved, I think we should fold the turn.

I am indesci.... indici...
I cant decide:

Pro:
Although maybe even drunk villains wont go broke with the overpair on a paired a straight heavy board.
You might get away with a pot sized bet. And it might annoy them enough that they move in on you with week hands in next rounds.
EV is probably negative but I consider this one of sklanskys "minor mistakes".

Con:
One thing though: the two remaining 8s might not really be your outs but infact villains outs if he is such a genius at higher stakes and sitting there with 99.

Na... I cant fold here for 30.

i basically put them both on straights here.

then call... or do you expect them to fold straights on a paired board for potsized bet?

Fold.

This is usually a fold, but I rarely do because ISAP.

Hit your boat and stack them because they ain't folding their straights.

You need to make like $165 after you hit here to make the call worth it. I don't think you will do it often enough.