6 players PartyPoker: 100NL Holdem

Hero has tight aggressive image but generally opens with wide range in late position. No reads on villian he has showed one hand down and it was good.

Hero: $125
Villian: $156
SB: $89

Hero is on the button holds 9 9 , villian is in the BB.

Folds to hero, hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.5, villian raises to $13, hero?

whats our line here? do we call for set value/re-raise or fold?

Folding is the safest bet the 1st time that you get 3 bet in this spot. He may be squeezing, but if he hasn't been doing this a lot, then I'd let him have the 1st one.

I think your best bet is to lay it down and hope for the SB to call and make it to a showdown so you can see what he's betting with.

Any other reads on the villian besides showing one hand down that was good? Is he generally tight?

He does have a large stack so if you feel that you can stack him if you hit the set, then it's worth the 9. Otherwise, fold.

You don't have the odds to set mine here.

why? are we looking for 3-4 players in this pot to call the re-raise?

I fold as well. The reason you can't set mine is because the stacks aren't big enough to get the implied odds.

You only flop a set 1 out of 8 times, and even then it doesn't guarantee a win. So you're looking to get 10x or more implied back for the investment you make.

You have $112 behind after you put in the $13 total, so it doesn't pay to set mine here. If you and villain both had like $500 behind, it'd be a profitable call.

I'm not a cash game player but I'd call this one since you've got position on him. If the flop brings a couple of high cards and you sense weakness in him you should take a stab at it since he may play a medium pair or something. If he calls you give it up of course. You might flop a set or pick up a straight draw. Thats how I look at it. As mentioned I'm not a cash game player...

You only have to put in $9 more with $112 behind you so this is more than 10x.

I think it's a pretty marginal decision actually. Folding is probably best untill you get a better idea of the villains 3betting range and how much of a station he is.

If you have a stack that's 10x the call, it should be a call. You definitely don't need $500 for this to be a profitable call. That's a pretty outrageous statement. Considering that you've raised on the button, the bb could be stealing with a high range here anyway. Calling>folding>raising, imo. How many hands have both you and the villain been sitting? Has he had a chance to see any of the hands you opened with from LP?

No.

Nononononono.

Bad.

Bad math.

Well I think what Shinzilla was saying was that if you can expect to make 10x in implied money as much as you invest to see a flop, then it's profitable to see a flop. The concept is that you only flop a set 1 in 8 times you see a flop. But it's not straight forward 8:1 implied odds because there's still a chance they can hit a draw or even outflopped you (set over set or flopped flush, etc.). I said the $500 stacks just to make it clear to OP what a clear-cut situation would look like to see a flop with a medium pair.

The reason Shin's comment might be bad math is because you shouldn't only be looking at what you have behind but also the relevant stacks and likelihood of getting paid if you flop your set.

Okay. Tell Brian Townsend that.

Why?

I think you need a 10x stack if you know the guy has AA... we don't know he has AA or that we will actually get to see the flop. Fold.

If we were last to act its closer

Chances of flopping a set: 1 in 8.5

Chances of losing with that set: 18%




Suppose we need to call "1" preflop and we need to win "Z" to break even:


1 in 8.5 we get Z in the middle overall. Of those, we make Z profit 82% of the time, and lose Z 18% of the time (or we win 82% of a 2Z pot = 1.64Z which is .64Z profit).
7.5 in 8.5 we lose 1.


0 = 1/8.5 x (.64 x Z) - 7.5/8.5
7.5 = 0.64 x Z
Z = 7.5/0.64 = 11.7

We need to get back 11.7x our preflop call if we get all of villain's money in every time we hit, and that is just to break even.

3 things to consider that sway the equation -

1) There is money in pot already, so that drops the Z value slightly.
2) MOST importantly, a fair amount of the time we don't stack them. The wider villain's raising range is, the worse the preflop call (for set value) becomes, because he is less likely to have a hand to pay us off.
3) Sometimes we win without hitting a set. Maybe we bet the flop, maybe they check the flop and we hit on the turn or we take it with a bet, or maybe they just check down with AK and don't improve.

Chances of losing with that set is not 18%. Your math is wrong.

Set mining is tricky business.
We need to know the villain is going to just go on "auto-stack" which isn't always the case.

Bring up PokerStove, put in 22 and KK for the hands, and have the 2c (or any other two) as a board card.



On all board containing the 2c, KK will beat 22 18% of the time.

Where is my math wrong?

using AA v 99 as a benchmark:


best case scenario: AA v 99, 9 high flop, no runner runner possibilities for the AA to hit. 99 is 91.41% to 8.59%
With runner runner straight: AA v 99: 99 is 89.80% to 10.2%
With runner runner floosh: AA v 99: 99 is 87.78% to 12.22%
With runner runner straight and floosh: 99 is 86.26% to 13.74%
With 4 to a floosh: 99 is 66% to 34%
With 4 to a floosh and BD straight: 64.44% to 35.56%
With 99 flopping the under full (ie QQ9) with a bdfd: 83.23% to 16.77%
With a set over set: 4.34% to 95.66%

And I believe I read the probability of having set over set is like 1/20. So ~5%.


Am I missing any scenario?

And also, im not sure what it tells us. It obviously depends on the flop.


Edit: Simo's way is a lot quicker and more efficient. Normally I'd delete this post and scurry along, but I wasted 7.23 minutes of my life doing that, so i might as well keep it, as a tribute.

Something about that number seemed intuitively wrong. You're right; I stand corrected. However, I'm still convinced this is a call. I don't think you're factoring in that third point you brought up enough; sometimes we'll win without hitting a set. Your average $100 NL bb's 3-betting range is fairly wide here, especially if we've been opening from LP a lot.

I didn't actually look at the hand in the OP particularly. I just kinda skipped past it on the way to discussing the implied odds of set mining in general.



As for the hand in the OP, I think calling is ok.

If I'm <4 tabling I probably call. If I'm 6+ tabling I probably fold.

We have pretty decent implied odds here, especially if the SB overcalls. We also have position, and we will be able to play profitably postflop at least some of the time. It's tricky to play postflop with weak overpairs against ranges like the BB's, so the fewer tables you're playing the more energy and concentration you can put into playing profitably postflop.

Whichever way you go with this hand, you're not going to win or lose much in the long run.