PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB ($5.45)
BB ($15.75)
UTG ($4.20)
MP ($12.45)
CO ($10)
Button ($2.20)

Preflop: CO posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG raises to $0.2, MP calls $0.20, CO (poster) calls $0.10, Button calls $0.20, SB calls $0.15, BB calls $0.10.

Flop: ($1.20) , , (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.85, UTG folds, MP raises to $3.7, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB raises to $12.25, MP calls $8.55 (All-In).

Turn: ($0) (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($0) (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $25.70

Results in white below:
EDIT: Hero has K886 for flopped top set (and rivered straight)
: Villian has 2345 for open ended and flush draw, with two pair.

Outcome: BB wins $25.70.

This isn't a results post because the hand itself is pretty cut and dry but rather it's a question about the odds. I always thought a set was favored over a wrap and flush draw because of the kill cards. The villian immediately stated what a horrible beat it was for his hand and he was a monster favorite. Said he knew what I had but had to push anyway because of his edge. Somebody set me straight about the facts.

Uh, am I missing something? What cards did they have?

In general, a wrap/flush draw vs. a flopped set is about 60/40 favouring the draw when all in on the flop (depending on the "xx" in the set hand, suits, blockers, etc)

I fixed the results, I tried something new with converter that apparently didn't work out.
I am BB in the hand.

The actual hh would be good here - suits (and knowing what position the "hero" and "villain" are) may matter. 2345 is 99% of the time a fold in plo. K886 is shit in this game too. Like I say above though, assuming a "true" wrap draw (ie. 9TJQ on 8JK flop or something similar) with a flush draw (of which the set hand doesn't have flush blocker cards) the draw will be a favourite on the flop, but only in about the 60/40 range.

(wow - i 2dimed it and i was almost dead on...)

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=4334060
pokenum -o 9c tc jd qd - kh ks 2s 7h -- 8c jc kd
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Jc 8c Kd
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc 9c Qd Jd 499 60.85 321 39.15 0 0.00 0.609
Ks 2s Kh 7h 321 39.15 499 60.85 0 0.00 0.391

I was getting around 14/15-1 on a call from BB. I normally don't play hands like K886 in any position.

Your opponent is a donkey.

If he was correct, then he should keep his mouth shut rather than educate his opposition but in this case, he is also wrong making him twice a donkey.

Firstly, you should note that he doesn't have a wrap draw on the flop (assuming I'm reading the HH correctly and he has 2345). He has a flush draw and an open ender. You are around 57% here which is what he should have expected, if he thought you were on the set.

There are wraps that are favourites vs top set. Top set is roughly a coinflip against a 17 out wrap draw and will be a dog to a 17 out wrap with the flush draw. You will be roughly 1 - 1.4 underdog against 20 outs + flush draw. Against a couple of opponents, all interested in this kind of flop, your oppponents may well be holding some of each other's outs.

Incidentally, the low value of the flop cards makes certain kinds of wrap draws not possible on this board. (A256 does not give all the drawing outs that it should because there is no card below the Ace that can make a straight for your opponent).

I wouldn't take this as gospel or anything but on this board the strongest wrap and straight draw combo I can think of for your opponent would be 7652 suited. Single suited to the spades that would give him 54.51%.

Your opponent has every right to be getting it in here but needs to grow up. He was never the favourite and even if he had been, you would still have been correct to play.



I don't quite know what you mean here but, if it's any use, a 13 out wrap with flush draw will be roughly a coinflip against your top set heads up.

wow i dint know that ^^^^
i always thought tha set was 50 50 wit tha wrap flush combination. i never ran through tha numbers tho. thanks

Any card that pairs the board and fills you up is a kill card against a drawing type of hand because you "killed" the action, making so he cannot win even if he hits his draw.

Ok. Wasn't sure what sense you were using the term.

That is included in the probabilities given above. Basically it accounts for your redraw to boat up.

In this case it is a huge part of your opponent's mistake. In holdem, an oesd + flush draw is a hand people will go to war with. Counting his outs, you come up with 9 flush and 6 straight outs for 15 outs. Doing some mental arithmetic in the middle of the hand he will multiply by 4 for his chance of hitting either turn or river come up with roughly 60% and get it in.

This is probably what your opponent did. His calculations for his hand are correct but they don't make him favourite. See in holdem, that line of reasoning is likely to be ok most of the time because he is probably facing a pair or 2. In Omaha, he is much more likely to be facing a set or various hands containing some of his outs.

The kill cards you mention have 2 effects. The 4 of spades and on the river the 5 are both cards that make your full house. So he needs to discount his own outs. Then, as you mentioned, if the board pairs he is toast. I don't know how to do the calculation accurately but that's what God invented the internet for. Roughly speaking his equity will shrink by nearly a third, so instead of having the 60% he thinks from just counting his outs, he drops to just over 40%. This makes sense given that you have roughly a 35% chance of hitting a boat from flop to river. So he should expect to lose roughly 35% of the times that he hits his flush or straight. (It doesn't reduce his odds quite that much for various reasons that aren't worth going into. In this case your redraw is also reduced by the fact that he holds 2 of your outs.).

Anyway, the result is that you are favoured over an oesd + flush. You are in good shape over some wrap / flush combinations and a slight dog to others, the details in the previous post.